Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Tottenham were slight favourites.
Tottenham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 51). Absences weigh more on Sunderland. Tottenham had 2.8 days of rest, Sunderland 2.8 and had to travel 387 km.
Away travel387 kmRest days2.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Tottenham59%
Draw23%
Sunderland18%
Tottenham57%
Draw24%
Sunderland19%
Tottenham58%
Draw23%
Sunderland19%
Tottenham52%
Draw25%
Sunderland23%
Tottenham58%
Draw23%
Sunderland18%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 129
Team strength
Tottenham
Sunderland
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
56
AttackIn forecast
62
74
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamSunderland
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.05
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.95
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
79%
Scored inContext
63%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
37%
9.74
ShotsContext
9.53
3.32
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.28
34%
On target shareContext
33%
7.17
Shots in the boxContext
7.13
71%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.06
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.58
Shots allowedContext
14.84
4.05
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.58
2.72
BlocksContext
4.53
3.12
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.72
73%
Save rateContext
79%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
416
PassesContext
365
341
Accurate passesContext
288
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.95
FoulsContext
9.89
8.47
Fouls sufferedContext
10.26
2.58
Yellow cardsContext
1.95
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
9.30
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
39%
On target shareContext
37%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.14
74%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.80
Shots allowedContext
16.10
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.30
BlocksContext
5.10
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
56%
Save rateContext
72%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
375
PassesContext
360
296
Accurate passesContext
281
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.70
FoulsContext
10.60
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km26 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Sunderland
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel387 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Jan | 2.8Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 26 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
33B. Davies
37M. van de Ven
17C. Romero
23Pedro Porro
14A. Gray
30R. Bentancur
11M. Tel
28W. Odobert
20M. Kudus
9Richarlison
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
3D. Cirkin
15O. Alderete
20N. Mukiele
6L. Geertruida
24S. Adingra
28E. Le Fée
34G. Xhaka
32T. Hume
9B. Brobbey
12Eliezer Mayenda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Sunderland-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
0.89points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-5
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.22
Sunderland · Away
1.00points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 0.44
- Conceded
- 1.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Liverpool | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Nottingham Forest | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Newcastle | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Fulham | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–4 A | D 2–2 H |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Chelsea | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Everton | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Leeds | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Wolves | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Brighton | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| West Ham | W 3–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Bournemouth | L 0–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Manchester City | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Burnley | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 26 of 57 · 1.37 per game | 29 of 57 · 1.53 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.05 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 0.95 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.00 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 32% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 42% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 37% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 37% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Tottenham | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.00 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.95 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.48 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 11/18 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 10/18 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 9/18 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.68 | 2.05 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 1.68 | |
| Match total | 4.31 | 3.73 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 12/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 10/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Tottenham | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.60 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 129 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 3.67
Red cards0.13league 0.10
Cards 5+44%league 37%
Fouls21.0league 21.4
Penalties0.20league 0.20
Home wins50%league 46%
Tottenham10 with this referee
Record8-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L29 Nov 25H · Fulham1–23
- W23 Dec 23H · Everton2–11
- W8 Apr 23H · Brighton2–13
- W26 Feb 23H · Chelsea2–02
- W3 Sep 22H · Fulham2–13
Sunderland4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D3 Dec 25A · Liverpool1–11
- L4 Oct 25A · Manchester United0–24
- L17 Feb 25A · Leeds1–26
- L9 Mar 24A · Southampton2–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tottenham19 games · scored 27 · conceded 23
2
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
7
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
8
5
76-90
Sunderland19 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
5
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
