Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Tottenham were slight favourites.
Tottenham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 49). Tottenham had 9.8 days of rest, West Ham 10.8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days9.8 · 10.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Tottenham58%
Draw23%
West Ham19%
Tottenham56%
Draw24%
West Ham20%
Tottenham57%
Draw23%
West Ham20%
Tottenham50%
Draw25%
West Ham25%
Tottenham57%
Draw24%
West Ham20%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeJarred Gillett
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 97
Team strength
Tottenham
West Ham
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
56
AttackIn forecast
68
74
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamWest Ham
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.05
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.05
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
81%
Scored inContext
62%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
10.19
ShotsContext
10.00
3.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
34%
On target shareContext
33%
7.45
Shots in the boxContext
7.21
70%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.11
11.48
Shots allowedContext
15.14
3.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.52
2.85
BlocksContext
4.68
3.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
72%
Save rateContext
66%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
414
PassesContext
381
338
Accurate passesContext
305
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.86
FoulsContext
10.86
8.86
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.90
ShotsContext
10.90
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
38%
On target shareContext
28%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
73%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.70
Shots allowedContext
13.90
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.50
BlocksContext
4.63
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
68%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
376
PassesContext
427
296
Accurate passesContext
346
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.30
FoulsContext
11.90
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km301 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
West Ham
Rest10.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km363 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.8Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan | 10.8Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 301 km | 363 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
33B. Davies
37M. van de Ven
17C. Romero
23Pedro Porro
14A. Gray
22C. Gallagher
11M. Tel
7X. Simons
28W. Odobert
39R. Kolo Muani
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
30O. Scarles
25J. Todibo
15K. Mavropanos
29A. Wan-Bissaka
7C. Summerville
18Mateus Fernandes
28T. Souček
20J. Bowen
19Pablo
11V. Castellanos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- West Ham-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
0.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.20
West Ham · Away
0.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-5
- Scored
- 0.90
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Brentford | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Liverpool | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Nottingham Forest | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Newcastle | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Fulham | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Arsenal | L 1–4 A | L 0–2 A |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Chelsea | L 0–1 H | L 1–5 H |
| Everton | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 H | L 2–3 H |
| Leeds | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Brighton | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Manchester City | W 2–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Burnley | W 3–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 24 of 60 · 1.20 per game | 14 of 60 · 0.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Tottenham wins3 draws3 West Ham wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 13 Sep 2025West Ham0–3Tottenham
- 4 May 2025West Ham1–1Tottenham
- 19 Oct 2024Tottenham4–1West Ham
- 2 Apr 2024West Ham1–1Tottenham
- 7 Dec 2023Tottenham1–2West Ham
- 19 Feb 2023Tottenham2–0West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.05 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 2.05 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.10 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 95% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 67% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 57% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 38% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Tottenham | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.45 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 10.35 | 11.80 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 12/20 | 85% 17/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 11/20 | 75% 15/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 9/20 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.76 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 3.38 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 14/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 12/21 | 24% 5/21 | |
| Tottenham | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 6.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 11.33 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.90 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jarred Gillett 97 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.71
Red cards0.10league 0.11
Cards 5+37%league 38%
Fouls20.0league 21.3
Penalties0.22league 0.20
Home wins39%league 45%
Tottenham13 with this referee
Record7-0-6
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- W28 Dec 25A · Crystal Palace1–02
- L1 Nov 25H · Chelsea0–14
- W13 Sep 25A · West Ham3–01
- L26 Feb 25H · Manchester City0–13
- W2 Feb 25A · Brentford2–01
West Ham7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.1.4 · 0.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L13 Sep 25H · Tottenham0–31
- W11 May 25A · Manchester United2–01
- D17 Mar 24H · Aston Villa1–13
- W8 Apr 23A · Fulham1–01
- W25 Feb 23H · Nottingham Forest4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tottenham21 games · scored 30 · conceded 27
3
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
8
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
9
7
76-90
West Ham21 games · scored 22 · conceded 43
5
7
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
9
31-45
1
8
46-60
2
8
61-75
8
9
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
3
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
