Exact scores use independent Poisson probabilities from LOAD90 forecast expected goals. Result and goal markets retain the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Scenario lab Beta
Toulouse70%
Draw18%
Estac Troyes11%
Expected goals 2.34 – 0.84
Toulouse67%
Draw20%
Estac Troyes13%
Expected goals 2.13 – 0.84
Toulouse70%
Draw19%
Estac Troyes12%
Expected goals 2.29 – 0.84
Toulouse63%
Draw21%
Estac Troyes16%
Expected goals 2.08 – 0.94
Toulouse71%
Draw18%
Estac Troyes12%
Expected goals 2.42 – 0.89
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to compare the probabilities above. Detailed markets below retain the full LOAD90 forecast.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Clean Sheet−0.4 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline10.1%→Forecast9.7%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
Toulouse ↓ · Estac Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
4.2
3.5
1.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
9.7
8.2
3.5
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
2
11.4
9.6
4.0
1.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
3
8.9
7.5
3.1
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
4
5.2
4.4
1.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
2.4
2.0
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
6+
1.4
1.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Toulouse goals, columns Estac Troyes goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
2–011.4%8.80
1–09.7%10.29
2–19.6%10.45
3–08.9%11.30
1–18.2%12.21
3–17.5%13.41
4–05.2%19.34
4–14.4%22.95
0–04.2%24.04
2–24.0%24.80
Winning margin
26.9%
Toulouse by 3+
fair 3.72
20.9%
Toulouse by 2
fair 4.78
22.6%
Toulouse by 1
fair 4.43
18.3%
Draw
fair 5.48
7.9%
Estac Troyes by 1
fair 12.72
2.7%
Estac Troyes by 2
fair 36.78
0.8%
Estac Troyes by 3+
fair 122.65
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Toulouse goals
10%0
23%1
26%2
21%3
21%4+
Estac Troyes goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
LOAD90
EloLambda
Change
Toulouse win
70.4%
70.8%
-0.4 pp
Draw
18.3%
17.7%
+0.5 pp
Estac Troyes win
11.4%
11.5%
-0.1 pp
Over 2.5
61.6%
64.3%
-2.7 pp
Both teams score
51.9%
54.1%
-2.2 pp
Expected goals Toulouse
2.34
2.42
-0.09
Expected goals Estac Troyes
0.84
0.89
-0.05
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
Toulouse win70.4%1.42
Draw18.3%5.48
Estac Troyes win11.4%8.78
Double chance Toulouse or draw88.6%1.13
Double chance Toulouse or Estac Troyes81.7%1.22
Double chance Estac Troyes or draw29.6%3.37
Draw no bet Toulouse86.1%1.16
Draw no bet Estac Troyes13.9%7.17
Goals
Over 0.595.4%1.05
Over 1.583.0%1.20
Over 2.561.6%1.62
Over 3.539.3%2.55
Over 4.521.6%4.64
Under 1.517.0%5.90
Under 2.538.4%2.60
Under 3.560.7%1.65
Both teams to score
Yes51.9%1.93
No48.1%2.08
Yes and over 2.543.2%2.31
Toulouse win and yes31.9%3.14
Draw and yes13.7%7.32
Estac Troyes win and yes6.3%15.80
Team goals
Toulouse over 0.590.3%1.11
Toulouse over 1.567.8%1.48
Toulouse over 2.541.4%2.42
Estac Troyes over 0.556.9%1.76
Estac Troyes over 1.520.7%4.84
Estac Troyes over 2.55.4%18.61
Toulouse clean sheet43.1%2.32
Estac Troyes clean sheet9.7%10.35
Toulouse win to nil38.5%2.60
Estac Troyes win to nil5.1%19.73
Handicap
Toulouse −1.547.8%2.09
Toulouse −2.526.9%3.72
Estac Troyes +1.552.2%1.91
Estac Troyes +2.573.1%1.37
Estac Troyes −1.53.5%28.29
Toulouse +1.596.5%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Stats page.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored65Favourite won55.4%Avg chance given to result41.3%1X2 Brier0.584Over 2.5 called right66.2%BTTS called right64.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
Favourite chance
Matches
Predicted
Actually won
30–40%
7
38.4%
28.6%
40–50%
26
45.1%
57.7%
50–60%
15
54.7%
46.7%
60–70%
13
65.6%
69.2%
70–80%
3
73.6%
66.7%
80%+
1
86.1%
100.0%
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 56 of 65 scored matches.
LOAD90
Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)
0.5820
0.5834
Avg chance given to result
41.6%
40.8%
Favourite won
55.4%
53.6%
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 46 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Pre-match forecasts only. 20 of 65 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.
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The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
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The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
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Toulouse
Estac Troyes
