Stade Brestois 29
Attack+5%
Defense risk−15%
Our take
Stade Brestois 29 are slight favourites.
Stade Brestois 29 are the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Stade Brestois 29. Stade Brestois 29 have 6 days of rest, Nice 5 and have to travel 1,044 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel1,044 kmRest days6 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Stade Brestois 2953%
Draw23%
Nice24%
Stade Brestois 2949%
Draw26%
Nice25%
Stade Brestois 2953%
Draw23%
Nice24%
Stade Brestois 2945%
Draw25%
Nice30%
Stade Brestois 2953%
Draw23%
Nice23%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 4 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brest)
11°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 29%
- Wind 24 km/h
- Humidity 72%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Stade Brestois 29 and Nice. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Stade Brestois 29
+0.73
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.02xG against1.29
-
Trend
Stade Brestois 29
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Stade Brestois 29
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Stade Brestois 29
+0.73
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.02xG against1.29
-
Trend
Stade Brestois 29
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Stade Brestois 29
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Stade Brestois 29
Nice
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
47
AttackIn forecast
26
36
DefenceIn forecast
35
49
Form indexContext
44
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack+2%
Defense risk+2%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Stade Brestois 29Nice
1.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
2.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.69
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
86%
Scored inContext
57%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
17.14
ShotsContext
11.71
5.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
34%
On target shareContext
32%
11.29
Shots in the boxContext
7.57
63%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.40
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.71
Shots allowedContext
11.86
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
2.57
BlocksContext
3.00
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
76%
Save rateContext
65%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
408
PassesContext
546
333
Accurate passesContext
478
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.73
14.14
FoulsContext
9.29
13.29
Fouls sufferedContext
8.14
1.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.52
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
80%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.10
ShotsContext
12.00
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
33%
On target shareContext
30%
10.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
64%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.70
12.30
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.30
BlocksContext
3.60
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
71%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
414
PassesContext
508
340
Accurate passesContext
439
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.80
FoulsContext
9.40
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Stade Brestois 29
WLLWD
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,197 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected
Nice
DLWWL
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,044 km586 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Stade Brestois 29 |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 17 Oct | 5Ligue 1 2026-2027, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,044 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,197 km | 586 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Stade Brestois 29
Last XI · not confirmed
1E. Selvik(G)
2B. Locko
4G. Lloris
29L. Tousart
70K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
9P. Mboup
23K. Doumbia
17M. Baldé
19L. Ajorque
Nice
Last XI · not confirmed
23Y. Diouf(G)
35X. Mandza Tsiendi
55Y. Ndayishimiye
5M. Mohamed Ahmed
27N. Nkounkou
6H. Boudaoui
28A. Witsel
92J. Clauss
9M. Amoura
7G. Hein
11S. Wahi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Stade Brestois 29
No reported absences
Nice
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Stade Brestois 29+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nice+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Stade Brestois 29 · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Nice · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Stade Brestois 29 | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Auxerre | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Le Mans | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Stade Brestois 29 wins3 draws5 Nice wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.60
Over 2.550%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets30% · 60%
- 1 Feb 2026Nice2–2Stade Brestois 29
- 20 Sep 2025Stade Brestois 294–1Nice
- 17 May 2025Nice6–0Stade Brestois 29
- 2 Nov 2024Stade Brestois 290–1Nice
- 4 Feb 2024Stade Brestois 290–0Nice
- 1 Oct 2023Nice0–0Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Stade Brestois 29 | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 2.14 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 57% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.00 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Stade Brestois 29 | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.86 | 8.71 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.29 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 0.86 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.72 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 10.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 2.90 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Stade Brestois 297 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Nice7 games · scored 6 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
4
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
