Toulouse 12th · 9 pts · 7 played
25 Oct 2026
16:15
Compare
Estac Troyes 17th · 4 pts · 7 played
Our take

Toulouse are clear favourites.

Toulouse are the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Toulouse. Estac Troyes are without A. Ouzenadji. Toulouse have 8.9 days of rest, Estac Troyes 7.9 and have to travel 561 km. Conditions look neutral.

Toulouse70%
Draw18%
Estac Troyes11%
Expected goals 2.34 – 0.84
Toulouse67%
Draw20%
Estac Troyes13%
Expected goals 2.13 – 0.84
Toulouse70%
Draw19%
Estac Troyes12%
Expected goals 2.29 – 0.84
Toulouse63%
Draw21%
Estac Troyes16%
Expected goals 2.08 – 0.94
Toulouse71%
Draw18%
Estac Troyes12%
Expected goals 2.42 – 0.89
Over 2.5 62% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 hour ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 25 · 16:15 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Away travel561 kmRest days8.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Squad & lineups

Toulouse Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Le Mans (A) 3–0, 16 Oct
16G. Restes(G)
12C. Tapé 2R. Nicolaisen 3M. McKenzie 22R. Messali
14N. Sigur 23C. Cásseres
8T. Jørgensen 20C. Tengstedt 15A. Dønnum
13J. Russell-Rowe
+2 more reported missing outside this XI
Estac Troyes Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lens (H) 1–3, 17 Oct
33P. Beach(G)
5P. Gozzi 4M. Diaz 6A. Monfray 2L. Maronnier
29D. Karim 8M. Diop
23T. Nkada 17A. Mille 10M. Ifnaoui
20R. Ripart
+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Toulouse Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals
Attack line −2.2% · Defence line −1.6% of weighted minutes
  • ATT S. Oppong Rotation 6.97
  • DEF M. Niflore Rotation 6.28
Estac Troyes Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −0.1% · Defence line −11.8% of weighted minutes
  • DEF A. Ouzenadji Starter 6.55
  • DEF Y. Titi Depth 6.60
  • MID Y. Kone Depth 6.32
1 without recent minutes (no impact): I. Boura
Total impact vs full squads
  • Toulouse+0.8 pp
  • Draw-0.4 pp
  • Estac Troyes-0.3 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Schedule last 5 · schedule

Toulouse
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km997 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 54 · 8 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • W16 OctA · Le Mans3–01.4 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Monaco2–20.7 xPts
  • W19 SepH · LE Havre3–21.9 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Lorient2–21.1 xPts
  • L3 SepH · Lille0–11.1 xPts
Estac Troyes
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel561 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Lens1–30.6 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Marseille0–20.9 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Angers0–20.9 xPts
  • L13 SepA · Lille0–20.4 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Strasbourg2–61.1 xPts

Next Matches

Toulouse
Estac Troyes

Match difficulty: 0–100, higher is harder. Based on current relative Elo.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentToulouseEstac Troyes
Lorient D 2–2 A W 2–1 A
Lille L 0–1 H L 0–2 A
Points1 of 6 · 0.50 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Toulouse Estac Troyes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 16 Oct7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km561 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways997 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one7.16.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Head to head

Statistics

Compare teams →
Toulouse Record · 2 Estac Troyes
2
100%
0
Goals4.00
Total: 8
3.50Home / Away0.50
BTTS50%
Total: 1 / 2
1Yes / No1
Over 2.5100%
Total: 2 / 2
2Over / Under0

Latest H2H Matches

Rating Corners Fouls Yellow cards
1 Feb2023
Toulouse—4
Estac Troyes—1
7.136.34
8—
1214
23
14 Aug2022
Estac Troyes—0
Toulouse—3
6.597.11
66
1419
21

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Summary uses the recorded sample above; Home / Away refers to the teams in this fixture. xG, corners, fouls and yellow cards are actual match statistics. Rating is the saved team average of player ratings weighted by minutes (0–10). Yellow cards include second yellows; missing values remain unavailable. Head-to-head is historical context, not a forecast adjustment.

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Toulouse and Estac Troyes. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking