Lens vs Paris FC – 24 Oct 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 24 · 19:45 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Lens 8th · 10 pts · 7 played LDLWW

VS— Compare

Paris FC 3rd · 14 pts · 7 played WDWLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lens are slight favourites.

Lens are the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Lens have 3 days of rest, Paris FC 6.1 and have to travel 179 km. Weather to note: strong wind.

Away travel179 kmRest days3 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 2

Lens59%

Draw21%

Paris FC21%

Expected goals 2.25 – 1.29

Lens58%

Draw23%

Paris FC18%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.96

Lens59%

Draw21%

Paris FC21%

Expected goals 2.25 – 1.29

Lens50%

Draw23%

Paris FC27%

Expected goals 2.01 – 1.45

Lens58%

Draw21%

Paris FC21%

Expected goals 2.22 – 1.28

Over 2.5 69% Both score 65% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lens)

10°CLight rain

Precipitation 65%
Wind 36 km/h
Humidity 95%

Strong wind

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Lens

Paris FC

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

63 AttackIn forecast 46

53 DefenceIn forecast 38

51 Form indexContext 73

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lens

Attack+2%

Defense risk+4%

Paris FC

Attack−12%

Defense risk+24%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Lens

Paris FC

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.71

1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.57 xGVia Att/Def 2.11

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

86% Scored inContext 57%

0% Clean sheetsContext 43%

14.71 ShotsContext 14.43

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

41% On target shareContext 35%

10.57 Shots in the boxContext 9.43

74% Box shareContext 63%

14% ConversionContext 12%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.71

11.29 Shots allowedContext 9.57

4.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.67 BlocksContext 3.00

3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

71% Save rateContext 71%

51% PossessionIn forecast 52%

487 PassesContext 575

418 Accurate passesContext 508

86% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.57 FoulsContext 13.71

13.14 Fouls sufferedContext 10.57

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.29

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

80% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.40 ShotsContext 14.40

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

37% On target shareContext 35%

10.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.70

70% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 13%

1.56 OffsidesContext 2.10

12.30 Shots allowedContext 9.90

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.44 BlocksContext 2.67

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

71% Save rateContext 69%

52% PossessionIn forecast 50%

474 PassesContext 524

405 Accurate passesContext 457

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.80 FoulsContext 12.40

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lens DLWLW

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km689 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

Form 51 · 7 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

W17 OctA · Estac Troyes3–12.2 xPts
L13 OctH · Sporting CP0–21.3 xPts
W9 OctH · Lyon2–11.6 xPts
L18 SepA · Monaco1–21.3 xPts
D13 SepA · Le Mans2–22.0 xPts

Paris FC WDWLW

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel179 km881 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 73 · 10 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

W18 OctH · Rennes4–31.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Lorient0–11.4 xPts
W19 SepH · Strasbourg2–11.5 xPts
D12 SepH · Lyon0–01.4 xPts
W6 SepA · Marseille3–20.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lens	Paris FC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct	6.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	179 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	689 km	881 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lens Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Estac Troyes (A) 3–1, 17 Oct

40R. Risser(G)

20J. Todibo 25P. Ganiou 32Kyllian Antonio

22M. Skóraś 5A. Bulatović 8Y. Titraoui 2R. Aguilar

7F. Sotoca 10F. Thauvin

11O. Édouard

Paris FC Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Rennes (H) 4–3, 18 Oct

1K. Trapp(G)

14H. Traoré 42D. Coppola 31Samir Sophian Chergui 17Adama Camara

33P. Lees-Melou 20M. Lopez

15L. Koleosho 7P. Pagis 10I. Kebbal

9L. Sinayoko

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lens No reported absences

Paris FC No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Lens+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Paris FC+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Lens · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.33

Paris FC · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Lens	Paris FC
Estac Troyes	W 3–1 A	D 0–0 A
Lyon	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 H
Lorient	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Strasbourg	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Points	6 of 12 · 1.50 per game	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Lens wins0 draws0 Paris FC wins

Goals per game3.50 – 0.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

14 Feb 2026Paris FC0–5Lens
19 Oct 2025Lens2–1Paris FC

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lens	Paris FC	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.71
Conceded per game	1.57	1.00
Match goals	3.57	2.71	3.54
Over 1.5	86%	57%
Over 2.5	86%	57%	69%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	86%	43%	65%
Clean sheets	0%	43%
Failed to score	14%	43%
Games	7	7

	Lens	Paris FC	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.90
Conceded per game	1.50	1.00
Match goals	3.60	2.90	3.54
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	69%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	65%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lens	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	4.00
Corners conceded	4.17	4.17
Match total	10.50	8.17	9.63
Over 8.5	100% 6/6	33% 2/6
Over 9.5	83% 5/6	17% 1/6
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.29
Opponent cards	1.57	1.57
Match total	3.57	3.86	3.47
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7

	Lens	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	6.78	4.00
Corners conceded	5.89	4.11
Match total	12.67	8.11	9.63
Over 8.5	100% 9/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.00
Opponent cards	1.30	1.20
Match total	3.40	3.20	3.47
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.