Bundesliga Gameweek 7 Sun, Oct 25 · 16:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
SC Freiburg 3rd · 13 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Bayern München 1st · 14 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Bayern München are clear favourites.

Bayern München are the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 64). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for SC Freiburg. SC Freiburg have 7.1 days of rest, Bayern München 3.9 and have to travel 277 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel277 kmRest days7.1 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
SC Freiburg16%
Draw17%
Bayern München67%
Expected goals 1.30 – 2.73
SC Freiburg17%
Draw23%
Bayern München61%
Expected goals 0.92 – 1.94
SC Freiburg16%
Draw17%
Bayern München67%
Expected goals 1.30 – 2.73
SC Freiburg11%
Draw14%
Bayern München75%
Expected goals 1.16 – 3.06
SC Freiburg17%
Draw20%
Bayern München64%
Expected goals 1.16 – 2.36
Over 2.5 77% Both score 68% Likeliest score 1–2
EloLambda forecast, updated 36 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
15°COvercast
  • Precipitation 79%
  • Wind 19 km/h
  • Humidity 73%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for SC Freiburg and Bayern München. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SC FreiburgBayern München
64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94
64 Current StrengthIn forecast 93
63 AttackIn forecast 96
73 DefenceIn forecast 90
78 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Freiburg

Attack−38%
Defense risk+110%

Bayern München

Attack−19%
Defense risk+4%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

SC FreiburgBayern München
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.67
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.83
1.87 xGVia Att/Def 3.57
0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
+0.63 Goals minus xGContext +0.10
100% Scored inContext 83%
33% Clean sheetsContext 33%
16.00 ShotsContext 24.17
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 10.33
33% On target shareContext 43%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 14.50
63% Box shareContext 61%
16% ConversionContext 15%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.67
9.17 Shots allowedContext 7.67
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.83
3.33 BlocksContext 3.00
2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40
64% Save rateContext 75%
53% PossessionIn forecast 69%
465 PassesContext 706
390 Accurate passesContext 635
84% Pass accuracyContext 90%
7.06 Team ratingContext 7.39
9.50 FoulsContext 10.50
14.17 Fouls sufferedContext 9.33
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 0.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.60
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 3.27
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12
+0.88 Goals minus xGContext +0.33
90% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.50 ShotsContext 22.80
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.80
37% On target shareContext 43%
8.70 Shots in the boxContext 13.40
64% Box shareContext 59%
18% ConversionContext 16%
1.71 OffsidesContext 2.90
11.00 Shots allowedContext 8.10
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11
3.80 BlocksContext 3.50
2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38
60% Save rateContext 70%
53% PossessionIn forecast 68%
445 PassesContext 693
373 Accurate passesContext 625
84% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.98 Team ratingContext 7.30
10.80 FoulsContext 8.60
13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 0.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Freiburg
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km686 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 10 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Bayer Leverkusen1–20.8 xPts
  • W11 OctH · FC Schalke 042–12.0 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt2–21.5 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–02.1 xPts
  • W5 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–01.5 xPts
Bayern München
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel277 km2,527 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
  • D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
  • W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SC Freiburg Bayern München
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 18 Oct3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km277 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways686 km2,527 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 21 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one5.96

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Freiburg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Bayer Leverkusen (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu
16Y. Engelhardt 8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant 42Keisuke Goto 19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise
9H. Kane

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SC Freiburg No reported absences
Bayern München No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • SC Freiburg+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Bayern München+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

SC Freiburg · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
3.67
Conceded
0.67
Bayern München · Away 1.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-2-0
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentSC FreiburgBayern München
FC Schalke 04 W 2–1 H D 0–0 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

0 SC Freiburg wins1 draws9 Bayern München wins
Goals per game0.90 – 3.00 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%
  • 4 Apr 2026SC Freiburg2–3Bayern München
  • 22 Nov 2025Bayern München6–2SC Freiburg
  • 25 Jan 2025SC Freiburg1–2Bayern München
  • 1 Sep 2024Bayern München2–0SC Freiburg
  • 1 Mar 2024SC Freiburg2–2Bayern München
  • 8 Oct 2023Bayern München3–0SC Freiburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SC FreiburgBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 2.503.67
Conceded per game 1.000.83
Match goals 3.504.50 4.03
Over 1.5 83%83%
Over 2.5 83%83% 77%
Over 3.5 50%67%
Both teams scored 67%67% 68%
Clean sheets 33%33%
Failed to score 0%17%
Games66
SC FreiburgBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 2.403.60
Conceded per game 1.400.90
Match goals 3.804.50 4.03
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 90%80% 77%
Over 3.5 60%70%
Both teams scored 70%60% 68%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SC FreiburgBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.179.40
Corners conceded3.503.20
Match total8.6712.6010.72
Over 8.550% 3/6100% 5/5
Over 9.517% 1/6100% 5/5
Over 10.517% 1/6100% 5/5
Cards
Cards1.830.83
Opponent cards1.832.17
Match total3.663.003.51
Over 3.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 4.533% 2/60% 0/6
SC FreiburgBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.108.44
Corners conceded4.003.78
Match total8.1012.2210.72
Over 8.550% 5/10100% 9/9
Over 9.520% 2/1078% 7/9
Over 10.520% 2/1067% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.401.00
Opponent cards2.201.90
Match total3.602.903.51
Over 3.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

SC Freiburg6 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 46-60
61-75
4 2 76-90
Bayern München6 games · scored 22 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
3 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
8 2 16-30
3 4 31-45
4 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 3 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
5 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
10 1 46-60
7 2 61-75
8 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
VfB Stuttgart Borussia Mönchengladbach Oct 2319:30 FSV Mainz 05 Werder Bremen Oct 2414:30 FC Augsburg Union Berlin Oct 2414:30 RB Leipzig SV Elversberg Oct 2414:30 SC Paderborn 07 Hamburger SV Oct 2414:30 1.FC Köln FC Schalke 04 Oct 2414:30 Borussia Dortmund Eintracht Frankfurt Oct 2417:30 1899 Hoffenheim Bayer Leverkusen Oct 2514:30 SC Freiburg Bayern München Oct 2516:30