VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
VfB Stuttgart67.5%fair odds 1.48
Draw18.9%fair odds 5.30
1.FC Köln13.7%fair odds 7.32
Expected goals2.34 – 0.97total 3.32
Likeliest score2–010.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
1.FC Köln
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| VfB Stuttgart ↓ · 1.FC Köln → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfB Stuttgart goals, columns 1.FC Köln goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.0%10.05
- 2–19.7%10.32
- 1–18.7%11.48
- 1–08.1%12.41
- 3–07.8%12.86
- 3–17.6%13.21
- 2–24.7%21.18
- 4–04.6%21.96
- 4–14.4%22.54
- 0–04.1%24.61
Winning margin
25.2%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 3.97
20.0%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 4.99
22.2%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.50
18.9%
Draw
fair 5.30
9.0%
1.FC Köln by 1
fair 11.13
3.5%
1.FC Köln by 2
fair 28.87
1.2%
1.FC Köln by 3+
fair 82.25
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
VfB Stuttgart goals
10%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
21%4+
1.FC Köln goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 67.5% | 64.8% | +2.6 pp |
| Draw | 18.9% | 20.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 1.FC Köln win | 13.7% | 14.4% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.4% | 58.0% | +6.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.7% | 52.7% | +4.0 pp |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 2.34 | 2.12 | +0.23 |
| Expected goals 1.FC Köln | 0.97 | 0.90 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- VfB Stuttgart win67.5%1.48
- Draw18.9%5.30
- 1.FC Köln win13.7%7.32
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw86.3%1.16
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or 1.FC Köln81.1%1.23
- Double chance 1.FC Köln or draw32.5%3.07
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart83.2%1.20
- Draw no bet 1.FC Köln16.8%5.94
Goals
- Over 0.595.9%1.04
- Over 1.584.8%1.18
- Over 2.564.4%1.55
- Over 3.542.3%2.36
- Over 4.524.1%4.16
- Under 1.515.2%6.57
- Under 2.535.6%2.81
- Under 3.557.7%1.73
Both teams to score
- Yes56.7%1.76
- No43.3%2.31
- Yes and over 2.548.0%2.08
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes33.8%2.96
- Draw and yes14.8%6.75
- 1.FC Köln win and yes8.1%12.31
Team goals
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.590.4%1.11
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.567.9%1.47
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.541.5%2.41
- 1.FC Köln over 0.562.2%1.61
- 1.FC Köln over 1.525.5%3.93
- 1.FC Köln over 2.57.6%13.23
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet37.8%2.65
- 1.FC Köln clean sheet9.6%10.42
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil33.7%2.97
- 1.FC Köln win to nil5.5%18.06
Handicap
- VfB Stuttgart −1.545.2%2.21
- VfB Stuttgart −2.525.2%3.97
- 1.FC Köln +1.554.8%1.83
- 1.FC Köln +2.574.8%1.34
- 1.FC Köln −1.54.7%21.37
- VfB Stuttgart +1.595.3%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored194
Favourite won57.7%
Avg chance given to result43.5%
1X2 Brier0.554
Over 2.5 called right62.9%
BTTS called right56.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 38.2% | 42.3% |
| 40–50% | 60 | 45.1% | 45.0% |
| 50–60% | 54 | 55.2% | 61.1% |
| 60–70% | 29 | 64.7% | 75.9% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 74.3% | 76.5% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 85.8% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 174 of 194 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5461 | 0.5414 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.9% | 43.6% |
| Favourite won | 59.2% | 59.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 174 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 194 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.