VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 37). VfB Stuttgart had 7.1 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 6.1 and had to travel 288 km.
Away travel288 kmRest days7.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
VfB Stuttgart67%
Draw19%
1.FC Köln14%
VfB Stuttgart64%
Draw21%
1.FC Köln15%
VfB Stuttgart68%
Draw19%
1.FC Köln14%
VfB Stuttgart60%
Draw22%
1.FC Köln19%
VfB Stuttgart65%
Draw21%
1.FC Köln14%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 60
Team strength
VfB Stuttgart
1.FC Köln
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
70
AttackIn forecast
36
58
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB Stuttgart1.FC Köln
1.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
90%
Scored inContext
86%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.90
ShotsContext
12.29
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
38%
On target shareContext
35%
9.62
Shots in the boxContext
8.25
65%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.31
12.14
Shots allowedContext
13.90
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.52
BlocksContext
4.35
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
74%
Save rateContext
66%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
511
PassesContext
400
432
Accurate passesContext
325
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.10
FoulsContext
8.00
12.05
Fouls sufferedContext
10.19
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.00
ShotsContext
12.00
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
42%
On target shareContext
33%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
67%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.60
BlocksContext
4.11
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
72%
Save rateContext
67%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
499
PassesContext
398
418
Accurate passesContext
319
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.00
FoulsContext
6.80
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,067 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1.FC Köln
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel288 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 6.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 288 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,067 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 6 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
22L. Assignon
30Chema Andrés
16A. Karazor
10C. Führich
26D. Undav
18J. Leweling
9E. Demirović
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund
39C. Özkacar
6E. Martel
2Joel Schmied
28S. Sebulonsen
16J. Kamiński
5T. Krauß
29J. Thielmann
9R. Ache
30M. Bülter
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- 1.FC Köln+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
2.30points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.10
1.FC Köln · Away
0.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 1.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | 1.FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 H | L 3–4 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 4–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 H | L 1–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 A | W 4–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 36 of 60 · 1.80 per game | 23 of 60 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 VfB Stuttgart wins2 draws1 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.43 – 0.57
Over 2.543%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets43% · 29%
- 28 Sep 20251.FC Köln1–2VfB Stuttgart
- 24 Feb 2024VfB Stuttgart1–11.FC Köln
- 30 Sep 20231.FC Köln0–2VfB Stuttgart
- 18 Feb 2023VfB Stuttgart3–01.FC Köln
- 28 Aug 20221.FC Köln0–0VfB Stuttgart
- 14 May 2022VfB Stuttgart2–11.FC Köln
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.81 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 3.05 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 14% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.95 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 10.15 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 11/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 6/20 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.76 | 3.96 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 10/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 8/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 9.22 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.00 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 3.74
Red cards0.23league 0.18
Cards 5+37%league 38%
Fouls22.8league 20.7
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins45%league 46%
VfB Stuttgart7 with this referee
Record2-3-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W14 Dec 25A · Werder Bremen4–00
- L23 Aug 25A · Union Berlin1–24
- L1 Feb 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–22
- W26 Oct 24H · Holstein Kiel2–13
- D11 Mar 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–11
1.FC Köln3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D20 May 23A · Werder Bremen1–12
- W14 Dec 21A · VfL Wolfsburg3–22
- W15 Aug 21H · Hertha BSC3–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart21 games · scored 38 · conceded 28
1
4
0-15
6
3
16-30
9
6
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
12
11
76-90
1.FC Köln21 games · scored 30 · conceded 34
4
3
0-15
5
5
16-30
2
8
31-45
7
3
46-60
8
61-75
12
7
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
