VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
VfB Stuttgart
5th · 29 pts · 16 played
LLWDW
3–2Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 26 pts · 16 played
DLWDD
VfB Stuttgart50.8%fair odds 1.97
Draw24.3%fair odds 4.11
Eintracht Frankfurt24.9%fair odds 4.02
Expected goals1.79 – 1.20total 2.99
Likeliest score1–111.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| VfB Stuttgart ↓ · Eintracht Frankfurt → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfB Stuttgart goals, columns Eintracht Frankfurt goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%8.80
- 2–19.7%10.33
- 1–08.5%11.83
- 2–08.1%12.36
- 1–26.5%15.49
- 2–25.8%17.28
- 3–15.8%17.29
- 0–05.6%17.84
- 0–15.4%18.35
- 3–04.8%20.68
Winning margin
12.9%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 7.78
15.7%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 6.38
22.3%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.49
24.3%
Draw
fair 4.11
14.7%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 6.82
7.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 14.34
3.2%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 31.06
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
VfB Stuttgart goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 50.8% | 48.9% | +1.9 pp |
| Draw | 24.3% | 25.9% | -1.6 pp |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 24.9% | 25.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 51.3% | +6.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.7% | 54.2% | +4.5 pp |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 1.79 | 1.62 | +0.17 |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.20 | 1.10 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- VfB Stuttgart win50.8%1.97
- Draw24.3%4.11
- Eintracht Frankfurt win24.9%4.02
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw75.1%1.33
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or Eintracht Frankfurt75.7%1.32
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw49.2%2.03
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart67.1%1.49
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt32.9%3.04
Goals
- Over 0.594.4%1.06
- Over 1.580.5%1.24
- Over 2.557.4%1.74
- Over 3.535.0%2.85
- Over 4.518.3%5.47
- Under 1.519.5%5.13
- Under 2.542.6%2.35
- Under 3.565.0%1.54
Both teams to score
- Yes58.7%1.70
- No41.3%2.42
- Yes and over 2.547.4%2.11
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes26.2%3.82
- Draw and yes18.7%5.34
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes13.8%7.24
Team goals
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.583.4%1.20
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.553.5%1.87
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.526.8%3.74
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.569.8%1.43
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.533.6%2.98
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.512.0%8.36
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet30.2%3.31
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet16.6%6.01
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil24.6%4.06
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil11.0%9.06
Handicap
- VfB Stuttgart −1.528.5%3.51
- VfB Stuttgart −2.512.9%7.78
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.571.5%1.40
- Eintracht Frankfurt +2.587.1%1.15
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.510.2%9.81
- VfB Stuttgart +1.589.8%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored142
Favourite won54.9%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.565
Over 2.5 called right62.7%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 46 | 45.1% | 39.1% |
| 50–60% | 36 | 55.0% | 52.8% |
| 60–70% | 23 | 65.0% | 78.3% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 74.0% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 86.7% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 123 of 142 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5536 | 0.5519 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.4% | 42.9% |
| Favourite won | 56.9% | 55.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 123 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 142 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.