VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfB Stuttgart
5th · 29 pts · 16 played
LLWDW
3–2Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 26 pts · 16 played
DLWDD
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 62). VfB Stuttgart had 3 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 3.9 and had to travel 152 km.
Away travel152 kmRest days3 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
VfB Stuttgart51%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt25%
VfB Stuttgart49%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt25%
VfB Stuttgart51%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt25%
VfB Stuttgart43%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt31%
VfB Stuttgart49%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt25%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 59
Team strength
VfB StuttgartEintracht Frankfurt
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
70
AttackIn forecast
54
58
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartEintracht Frankfurt
1.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.06
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.06
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
88%
Scored inContext
88%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
14.81
ShotsContext
12.31
5.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
37%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
64%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.82
11.69
Shots allowedContext
11.38
4.19
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.53
3.19
BlocksContext
2.31
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.36
73%
Save rateContext
51%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
502
PassesContext
496
424
Accurate passesContext
414
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.50
FoulsContext
10.00
12.19
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.89
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.40
ShotsContext
9.90
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
38%
On target shareContext
38%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
68%
Box shareContext
71%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
2.13
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.20
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.60
BlocksContext
3.90
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
65%
Save rateContext
49%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
481
PassesContext
442
404
Accurate passesContext
359
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.60
FoulsContext
10.20
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km590 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel152 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 Jan | 3.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 152 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 590 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
3R. Hendriks
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
10C. Führich
18J. Leweling
9E. Demirović
26D. Undav
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
40Kauã Santos(G)
3A. Theate
5A. Amenda
4R. Koch
13R. Kristensen
7A. Knauff
6O. Højlund
15E. Skhiri
20R. Doan
11Y. Ebnoutalib
25A. Kalimuendo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
2.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-1
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.14
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-2
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 2.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 4–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–0 A | W 4–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 H | L 0–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 A | D 3–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 A | L 0–6 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 A | W 4–3 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 1–0 H | W 6–4 A |
| Union Berlin | L 1–2 A | L 3–4 H |
| Points | 29 of 48 · 1.81 per game | 26 of 48 · 1.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 VfB Stuttgart wins2 draws4 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.63
Over 2.563%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 13%
- 29 Mar 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–0VfB Stuttgart
- 10 Nov 2024VfB Stuttgart2–3Eintracht Frankfurt
- 13 Apr 2024VfB Stuttgart3–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 25 Nov 2023Eintracht Frankfurt1–2VfB Stuttgart
- 11 Mar 2023Eintracht Frankfurt1–1VfB Stuttgart
- 17 Sep 2022VfB Stuttgart1–3Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.81 | 2.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 2.06 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 4.13 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 63% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 69% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| VfB Stuttgart | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 3.30 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 9.53 | 8.00 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 8/15 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 14% 2/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.69 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 8/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 7/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 4.13 | |
| Match total | 7.44 | 8.76 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 11% 1/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 2.90 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 3.85
Red cards0.17league 0.20
Cards 5+37%league 41%
Fouls23.1league 21.1
Penalties0.31league 0.33
Home wins53%league 44%
VfB Stuttgart7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W28 Sep 25A · 1.FC Köln2–12
- W6 Apr 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–04
- W22 Sep 23H · SV Darmstadt 983–11
- L4 Nov 22A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–31
- L25 Feb 22A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–22
Eintracht Frankfurt4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Nov 25H · FSV Mainz 051–00
- W26 Apr 25H · RB Leipzig4–01
- W21 Oct 23A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–10
- D12 Sep 21H · VfB Stuttgart1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart16 games · scored 29 · conceded 23
1
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
8
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
9
9
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt16 games · scored 33 · conceded 33
2
7
0-15
7
2
16-30
8
4
31-45
7
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
5
10
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 25 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
7
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
8
5
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
