Bundesliga Gameweek 17 Wed, Jan 14 · 17:30 Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg 14th · 15 pts · 16 played
2–1Full time
FC St. Pauli 17th · 12 pts · 15 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
VfL Wolfsburg56.4%fair odds 1.77
Draw23.5%fair odds 4.25
FC St. Pauli20.1%fair odds 4.98
Expected goals1.87 – 1.04total 2.91
Likeliest score1–111.1%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

VfL Wolfsburg

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

FC St. Pauli

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

VfL Wolfsburg ↓ · FC St. Pauli →0123456+
06.05.12.91.00.30.10.0
19.611.15.51.90.50.10.0
29.69.95.11.80.50.10.0
36.06.23.21.10.30.10.0
42.82.91.50.50.10.00.0
51.01.10.60.20.10.00.0
6+0.40.50.20.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfL Wolfsburg goals, columns FC St. Pauli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.1%8.98
  • 2–19.9%10.09
  • 1–09.6%10.37
  • 2–09.6%10.46
  • 3–16.2%16.15
  • 0–06.0%16.66
  • 3–06.0%16.74
  • 1–25.5%18.25
  • 2–25.1%19.47
  • 0–15.1%19.69

Winning margin

15.6% VfL Wolfsburg by 3+ fair 6.41
17.5% VfL Wolfsburg by 2 fair 5.72
23.3% VfL Wolfsburg by 1 fair 4.29
23.5% Draw fair 4.25
12.7% FC St. Pauli by 1 fair 7.90
5.3% FC St. Pauli by 2 fair 18.72
2.1% FC St. Pauli by 3+ fair 48.14

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+

VfL Wolfsburg goals

15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+

FC St. Pauli goals

35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
VfL Wolfsburg win 56.4% 55.7% +0.7 pp
Draw 23.5% 24.2% -0.7 pp
FC St. Pauli win 20.1% 20.0% +0.0 pp
Over 2.5 55.7% 52.9% +2.8 pp
Both teams score 55.2% 53.1% +2.1 pp
Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg 1.87 1.80 +0.07
Expected goals FC St. Pauli 1.04 0.99 +0.04

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • VfL Wolfsburg win56.4%1.77
  • Draw23.5%4.25
  • FC St. Pauli win20.1%4.98
  • Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw79.9%1.25
  • Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or FC St. Pauli76.5%1.31
  • Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw43.6%2.29
  • Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg73.8%1.36
  • Draw no bet FC St. Pauli26.2%3.81

Goals

  • Over 0.594.0%1.06
  • Over 1.579.3%1.26
  • Over 2.555.7%1.80
  • Over 3.533.3%3.00
  • Over 4.517.0%5.88
  • Under 1.520.7%4.83
  • Under 2.544.3%2.26
  • Under 3.566.7%1.50

Both teams to score

  • Yes55.2%1.81
  • No44.8%2.23
  • Yes and over 2.544.1%2.27
  • VfL Wolfsburg win and yes26.9%3.71
  • Draw and yes17.5%5.71
  • FC St. Pauli win and yes10.7%9.32

Team goals

  • VfL Wolfsburg over 0.584.7%1.18
  • VfL Wolfsburg over 1.555.9%1.79
  • VfL Wolfsburg over 2.528.9%3.45
  • FC St. Pauli over 0.564.5%1.55
  • FC St. Pauli over 1.527.8%3.60
  • FC St. Pauli over 2.58.7%11.47
  • VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet35.5%2.82
  • FC St. Pauli clean sheet15.3%6.52
  • VfL Wolfsburg win to nil29.5%3.39
  • FC St. Pauli win to nil9.3%10.71

Handicap

  • VfL Wolfsburg −1.533.1%3.02
  • VfL Wolfsburg −2.515.6%6.41
  • FC St. Pauli +1.566.9%1.49
  • FC St. Pauli +2.584.4%1.18
  • FC St. Pauli −1.57.4%13.48
  • VfL Wolfsburg +1.592.6%1.08

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored145 Favourite won55.9% Avg chance given to result43.1% 1X2 Brier0.559 Over 2.5 called right63.4% BTTS called right55.9%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2038.2%50.0%
40–50%4645.1%39.1%
50–60%3854.9%55.3%
60–70%2465.2%79.2%
70–80%1274.0%75.0%
80%+586.7%80.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 126 of 145 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.54660.5445
Avg chance given to result43.8%43.3%
Favourite won57.9%56.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 126 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 145 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.