VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfL Wolfsburg
14th · 15 pts · 16 played
DWWLL
2–1Full time
FC St. Pauli
17th · 12 pts · 15 played
LLDWD
Our take
VfL Wolfsburg were slight favourites.
VfL Wolfsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 26). VfL Wolfsburg had 3 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 24.1 and had to travel 136 km.
Away travel136 kmRest days3 · 24.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
VfL Wolfsburg56%
Draw24%
FC St. Pauli20%
VfL Wolfsburg56%
Draw24%
FC St. Pauli20%
VfL Wolfsburg56%
Draw24%
FC St. Pauli20%
VfL Wolfsburg49%
Draw25%
FC St. Pauli26%
VfL Wolfsburg56%
Draw24%
FC St. Pauli20%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
RefereeFrank Willenborg
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 53
Team strength
VfL WolfsburgFC St. Pauli
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
50
AttackIn forecast
20
42
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL WolfsburgFC St. Pauli
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.87
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
81%
Scored inContext
53%
6%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
11.38
ShotsContext
10.13
4.19
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
37%
On target shareContext
32%
7.13
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
61%
Box shareContext
53%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.55
14.38
Shots allowedContext
11.53
5.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.07
3.87
BlocksContext
4.00
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
62%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
396
PassesContext
446
316
Accurate passesContext
355
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.71
10.44
FoulsContext
10.13
9.69
Fouls sufferedContext
9.93
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
1.53
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
0.56
1.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
90%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.00
ShotsContext
9.10
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.33
45%
On target shareContext
23%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
4.50
61%
Box shareContext
48%
16%
ConversionContext
6%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.10
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.00
BlocksContext
4.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
61%
Save rateContext
69%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
392
PassesContext
433
309
Accurate passesContext
341
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.68
10.60
FoulsContext
8.40
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km960 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest24.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel136 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Bundesliga 2025-2026, 11 Jan | 24.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 136 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 960 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
25A. Zehnter
4K. Koulierakis
15M. Jenz
26S. Kumbedi
27M. Arnold
31Y. Gerhardt
39P. Wimmer
10L. Majer
24C. Eriksen
17D. Pejčinović
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
5H. Wahl
25A. Dźwigała
21L. Ritzka
8E. Smith
6J. Sands
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
16J. Fujita
28M. Pereira Lage
26R. Jones
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC St. Pauli+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
0.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-5
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 2.38
FC St. Pauli · Away
0.63points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-5
- Scored
- 0.63
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | L 1–8 A | L 1–3 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 3–4 H | L 1–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 A | L 0–4 H |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–3 H | L 0–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 A | D 3–3 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 15 of 45 · 1.00 per game | 12 of 45 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 VfL Wolfsburg wins2 draws0 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 8 Mar 2025VfL Wolfsburg1–1FC St. Pauli
- 26 Oct 2024FC St. Pauli0–0VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.87 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 2.60 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 53% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 47% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 6% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 47% | |
| Games | 16 | 15 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 2.30 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.47 | 5.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.78 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 10/15 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 8/15 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 7/15 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.56 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 3.60 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 7/16 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 6/16 | 33% 5/15 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.78 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.11 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 10.45 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 2.70 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Frank Willenborg 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.42league 3.84
Red cards0.15league 0.20
Cards 5+49%league 40%
Fouls22.2league 21.1
Penalties0.25league 0.32
Home wins40%league 46%
VfL Wolfsburg8 with this referee
Record5-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L2 Nov 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–30
- L18 May 24H · FSV Mainz 051–32
- W27 Apr 24A · SC Freiburg2–12
- W30 Sep 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–01
- W25 Feb 23A · 1.FC Köln2–02
FC St. PauliNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg16 games · scored 24 · conceded 36
7
6
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
5
6
61-75
2
10
76-90
FC St. Pauli15 games · scored 13 · conceded 26
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
3
7
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 26
6
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
7
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 5 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
