West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 56). West Ham had 10.9 days of rest, Bournemouth 10.9 and had to travel 151 km.
Away travel151 kmRest days10.9 · 10.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
West Ham33%
Draw26%
Bournemouth41%
West Ham32%
Draw27%
Bournemouth41%
West Ham33%
Draw26%
Bournemouth42%
West Ham26%
Draw25%
Bournemouth49%
West Ham33%
Draw26%
Bournemouth41%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeSamuel Barrott
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 76
Team strength
West Ham
Bournemouth
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
68
AttackIn forecast
83
64
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamBournemouth
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.65
1.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
69%
Scored inContext
85%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
10.15
ShotsContext
13.54
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.92
35%
On target shareContext
36%
6.91
Shots in the boxContext
8.52
67%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.21
14.88
Shots allowedContext
12.73
5.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.77
4.50
BlocksContext
3.92
3.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
67%
Save rateContext
66%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
374
PassesContext
403
297
Accurate passesContext
322
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.04
FoulsContext
12.19
11.04
Fouls sufferedContext
10.46
1.65
Yellow cardsContext
2.38
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
2.00
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.40
ShotsContext
14.80
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
33%
On target shareContext
40%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
66%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.60
Shots allowedContext
15.40
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.89
BlocksContext
4.80
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
71%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
426
PassesContext
358
343
Accurate passesContext
276
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.10
FoulsContext
12.00
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest10.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bournemouth
Rest10.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel151 km617 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Bournemouth |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10.9Premier League 2025-2026, 10 Feb | 10.9Premier League 2025-2026, 10 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 617 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
12E. Diouf
4A. Disasi
15K. Mavropanos
29A. Wan-Bissaka
7C. Summerville
18Mateus Fernandes
28T. Souček
27S. Magassa
20J. Bowen
11V. Castellanos
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
23J. Hill
20Álex Jiménez
12T. Adams
8A. Scott
21A. Adli
22E. Kroupi
37Rayan
9Evanilson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bournemouth
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham+0.7 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bournemouth-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
0.85points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-8
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 2.08
Bournemouth · Away
1.08points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-5
- Scored
- 1.77
- Conceded
- 2.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | West Ham | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | D 4–4 A |
| Burnley | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Chelsea | L 2–3 AL 1–5 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Sunderland | W 3–1 HL 0–3 A | L 2–3 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Wolves | L 0–3 A | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Brighton | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Fulham | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Aston Villa | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 H | W 3–2 HL 2–4 A |
| Newcastle | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Leeds | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Brentford | L 0–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Everton | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 23 of 75 · 0.92 per game | 36 of 75 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 West Ham wins5 draws0 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game1.86 – 1.00
Over 2.543%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets29% · 0%
- 22 Nov 2025Bournemouth2–2West Ham
- 5 Apr 2025West Ham2–2Bournemouth
- 16 Dec 2024Bournemouth1–1West Ham
- 1 Feb 2024West Ham1–1Bournemouth
- 12 Aug 2023Bournemouth1–1West Ham
- 23 Apr 2023Bournemouth0–4West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 1.65 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.88 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 3.12 | 3.38 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 62% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 54% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 69% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 15% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| West Ham | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 5.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 11.25 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 19/25 | 79% 19/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 68% 17/25 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 64% 16/25 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.77 | 2.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.96 | 2.04 | |
| Match total | 3.73 | 4.46 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 13/26 | 69% 18/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 8/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| West Ham | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 7.10 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 13.20 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.20 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Samuel Barrott 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.73
Red cards0.07league 0.12
Cards 5+30%league 38%
Fouls20.3league 21.3
Penalties0.25league 0.22
Home wins38%league 42%
West Ham5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.3.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D29 Sep 25A · Everton1–14
- L18 May 25H · Nottingham Forest1–26
- L21 Sep 24H · Chelsea0–35
- D2 Jan 24H · Brighton0–01
- W25 Nov 23A · Burnley2–13
Bournemouth5 with this referee
Record3-2-0
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D30 Dec 25A · Chelsea2–21
- W26 Oct 25H · Nottingham Forest2–03
- D19 Apr 25A · Crystal Palace0–04
- W30 Mar 24H · Everton2–11
- W28 Oct 23H · Burnley2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham26 games · scored 32 · conceded 49
9
7
0-15
3
2
16-30
7
9
31-45
2
9
46-60
2
11
61-75
9
11
76-90
Bournemouth26 games · scored 43 · conceded 45
7
5
0-15
7
6
16-30
7
9
31-45
3
7
46-60
7
5
61-75
12
13
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
6
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
61-75
2
4
76-90
Bournemouth9 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
