West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Leeds were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 59). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for West Ham. West Ham had 6.9 days of rest, Leeds 7 and had to travel 272 km.
Away travel272 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
West Ham39%
Draw26%
Leeds35%
West Ham34%
Draw27%
Leeds38%
West Ham39%
Draw26%
Leeds35%
West Ham32%
Draw26%
Leeds42%
West Ham39%
Draw26%
Leeds34%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 200
Team strength
West Ham
Leeds
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
73
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
73
68
AttackIn forecast
69
64
DefenceIn forecast
77
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLeeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamLeeds
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.76
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
65%
Scored inContext
70%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
10.49
ShotsContext
12.57
3.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
32%
7.61
Shots in the boxContext
8.53
70%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.19
14.95
Shots allowedContext
12.43
5.19
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
4.57
BlocksContext
3.94
3.49
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
67%
Save rateContext
65%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
369
PassesContext
394
291
Accurate passesContext
312
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.08
FoulsContext
10.38
10.57
Fouls sufferedContext
11.24
1.84
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.40
ShotsContext
13.40
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
37%
On target shareContext
31%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
74%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.86
15.60
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
4.80
BlocksContext
4.20
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
63%
Save rateContext
72%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
358
PassesContext
385
279
Accurate passesContext
298
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.30
FoulsContext
10.40
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km796 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Leeds
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel272 km544 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Leeds |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 17 May | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 272 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 796 km | 544 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 90 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
12E. Diouf
4A. Disasi
15K. Mavropanos
2K. Walker-Peters
18Mateus Fernandes
28T. Souček
7C. Summerville
19Pablo
20J. Bowen
11V. Castellanos
Leeds
Confirmed XI
26K. Darlow(G)
5P. Struijk
15J. Bijol
6J. Rodon
24J. Justin
22A. Tanaka
4E. Ampadu
11B. Aaronson
2J. Bogle
14L. Nmecha
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Leeds
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Leeds+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
1.06points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-9
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Leeds · Away
0.83points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-9-7
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | West Ham | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | L 1–3 AW 3–1 H | L 3–4 AD 0–0 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–4 HL 0–5 A |
| Brentford | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Everton | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Wolves | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Aston Villa | L 0–2 AL 2–3 H | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Manchester City | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Fulham | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Liverpool | L 2–5 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 AD 3–3 H |
| Bournemouth | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Burnley | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H | W 3–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Chelsea | L 2–3 AL 1–5 H | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Sunderland | W 3–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | W 3–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Brighton | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 36 of 108 · 1.00 per game | 44 of 108 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 West Ham wins1 draws2 Leeds wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.43
Over 2.586%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets14% · 0%
- 24 Oct 2025Leeds2–1West Ham
- 21 May 2023West Ham3–1Leeds
- 4 Jan 2023Leeds2–2West Ham
- 16 Jan 2022West Ham2–3Leeds
- 25 Sep 2021Leeds1–2West Ham
- 8 Mar 2021West Ham2–0Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.76 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.92 | 2.76 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 54% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 59% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 30% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| West Ham | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 1.90 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.03 | 4.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.14 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 11.17 | 9.97 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 72% 26/36 | 68% 23/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 24/36 | 56% 19/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 21/36 | 44% 15/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 1.65 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.95 | 1.84 | |
| Match total | 3.87 | 3.49 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 21/37 | 43% 16/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 11/37 | 32% 12/37 | |
| West Ham | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 12.00 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.80 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 3.79
Red cards0.15league 0.12
Cards 5+39%league 38%
Fouls21.2league 21.6
Penalties0.24league 0.21
Home wins36%league 43%
West Ham15 with this referee
Record6-2-7
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.1
Pens for · against0 · 4
Reds2
- L31 Jan 26A · Chelsea2–33
- L14 Dec 25H · Aston Villa2–31
- W27 Feb 25H · Leicester2–00
- L29 Dec 24H · Liverpool0–50
- L30 Nov 24H · Arsenal2–54
Leeds8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W11 Jan 26A · Derby3–11
- D6 Dec 25H · Liverpool3–33
- W20 Sep 25A · Wolves3–11
- L28 May 23H · Tottenham1–43
- L23 Oct 22H · Fulham2–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham37 games · scored 43 · conceded 65
9
11
0-15
3
4
16-30
9
11
31-45
4
10
46-60
7
14
61-75
11
15
76-90
Leeds37 games · scored 49 · conceded 53
7
4
0-15
6
7
16-30
11
5
31-45
7
11
46-60
9
11
61-75
9
15
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
