West Ham vs Sunderland – 24 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 23 Sat, Jan 24 · 12:30 London Stadium, London

West Ham 18th · 17 pts · 22 played LDLLW

3–1Full time

Sunderland 9th · 33 pts · 22 played DDDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

West Ham were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. West Ham had 6.9 days of rest, Sunderland 6.9 and had to travel 387 km.

Away travel387 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

West Ham43%

Draw26%

Sunderland31%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.25

West Ham42%

Draw27%

Sunderland31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.21

West Ham43%

Draw26%

Sunderland31%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.25

West Ham35%

Draw27%

Sunderland38%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.41

West Ham42%

Draw27%

Sunderland31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Bramall

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 99

Team strength

West Ham

Sunderland

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

68 AttackIn forecast 62

64 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

West Ham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

West Ham

Sunderland

1.09 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.05

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.05

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 0.92

1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

64% Scored inContext 64%

5% Clean sheetsContext 32%

10.32 ShotsContext 9.77

3.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43

33% On target shareContext 34%

7.21 Shots in the boxContext 7.37

69% Box shareContext 71%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.05 OffsidesContext 1.94

15.41 Shots allowedContext 14.50

5.55 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.55

4.65 BlocksContext 4.32

3.73 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.52

67% Save rateContext 76%

43% PossessionIn forecast 43%

378 PassesContext 371

302 Accurate passesContext 293

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.14 FoulsContext 9.77

11.14 Fouls sufferedContext 10.59

1.68 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

1.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

70% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.90 ShotsContext 10.60

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

29% On target shareContext 38%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.11

76% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 7%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.10 Shots allowedContext 14.50

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.56 BlocksContext 4.60

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

72% Save rateContext 69%

45% PossessionIn forecast 45%

420 PassesContext 395

339 Accurate passesContext 312

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.40 FoulsContext 10.30

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

West Ham

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sunderland

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel387 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	West Ham	Sunderland
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	387 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 5	1 / 1 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	9.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

West Ham Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

23A. Areola(G)

30O. Scarles 25J. Todibo 15K. Mavropanos 29A. Wan-Bissaka

7C. Summerville 18Mateus Fernandes 28T. Souček 20J. Bowen

19Pablo

11V. Castellanos

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Sunderland Confirmed XI

4-4-2

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 5D. Ballard 20N. Mukiele

14R. Mundle 28E. Le Fée 27N. Sadiki 32T. Hume

9B. Brobbey 12Eliezer Mayenda

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

West Ham Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sunderland Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

West Ham-0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sunderland+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

West Ham · Home 0.64points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-8
Scored: 1.18
Conceded: 2.27

Sunderland · Away 0.91points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-5
Scored: 0.45
Conceded: 1.27

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	West Ham	Sunderland
Tottenham	W 2–1 AL 0–3 H	D 1–1 A
Nottingham Forest	L 1–2 HW 3–0 A	W 1–0 A
Wolves	L 0–3 A	W 2–0 H
Brighton	D 2–2 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 A
Fulham	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Manchester City	L 0–3 A	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A
Aston Villa	L 2–3 H	D 1–1 H
Manchester United	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 A
Liverpool	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 A
Bournemouth	D 2–2 A	W 3–2 H
Burnley	W 3–2 H	L 0–2 A
Newcastle	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 H
Leeds	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
Brentford	L 0–2 H	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H
Arsenal	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 H
Everton	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Crystal Palace	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 HD 0–0 A
Chelsea	L 1–5 H	W 2–1 A
Points	17 of 63 · 0.81 per game	30 of 63 · 1.43 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 West Ham wins0 draws1 Sunderland wins

Goals per game0.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

16 Aug 2025Sunderland3–0West Ham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	West Ham	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	1.09	1.05
Conceded per game	2.00	1.05
Match goals	3.09	2.09	2.77
Over 1.5	95%	73%
Over 2.5	68%	36%	52%
Over 3.5	27%	9%
Both teams scored	59%	45%	56%
Clean sheets	5%	32%
Failed to score	36%	36%
Games	22	22

	West Ham	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.90
Conceded per game	1.90	1.20
Match goals	2.80	2.10	2.77
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	52%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	West Ham	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	5.57	3.59
Corners conceded	6.43	4.91
Match total	12.00	8.50	9.95
Over 8.5	86% 18/21	50% 11/22
Over 9.5	76% 16/21	41% 9/22
Over 10.5	71% 15/21	32% 7/22
Cards
Cards	1.77	2.09
Opponent cards	1.82	1.77
Match total	3.59	3.86	3.88
Over 3.5	45% 10/22	50% 11/22
Over 4.5	27% 6/22	41% 9/22

	West Ham	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	6.22	3.67
Corners conceded	5.89	5.56
Match total	12.11	9.23	9.95
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.30
Opponent cards	2.50	1.70
Match total	4.40	4.00	3.88
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 99 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.65league 3.75

Red cards0.14league 0.10

Cards 5+39%league 39%

Fouls22.0league 21.3

Penalties0.19league 0.20

Home wins47%league 45%

West Ham4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.3.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds2

D22 Nov 25A · Bournemouth2–22
L18 Jan 25H · Crystal Palace0–23
L17 Feb 24A · Nottingham Forest0–26
L4 Nov 23A · Brentford2–34

Sunderland5 with this referee

Record2-3-0 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 0

D3 Nov 25H · Everton1–13
D13 Sep 25A · Crystal Palace0–01
W5 Jan 25H · Portsmouth1–01
W10 Apr 23A · Cardiff1–01
D4 Feb 23A · Millwall1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.