Wolves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Burnley were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 48). Absences weigh more on Burnley. Wolves had 8 days of rest, Burnley 8 and had to travel 135 km.
Away travel135 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Wolves37%
Draw27%
Burnley36%
Wolves35%
Draw27%
Burnley37%
Wolves36%
Draw27%
Burnley37%
Wolves30%
Draw26%
Burnley44%
Wolves36%
Draw27%
Burnley36%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)
No weather data yet
RefereeTony Harrington
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 75
Team strength
Wolves
Burnley
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
41
AttackIn forecast
27
46
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBurnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
WolvesBurnley
0.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.88
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.04
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
50%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.25
ShotsContext
7.50
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
32%
On target shareContext
35%
6.63
Shots in the boxContext
4.38
65%
Box shareContext
55%
6%
ConversionContext
15%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.29
12.00
Shots allowedContext
18.75
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.00
BlocksContext
5.50
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
59%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
35%
411
PassesContext
315
330
Accurate passesContext
238
80%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.68
13.50
FoulsContext
9.88
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.63
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.76
60%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.20
ShotsContext
9.20
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
31%
On target shareContext
41%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
63%
Box shareContext
57%
7%
ConversionContext
19%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.44
12.20
Shots allowedContext
16.90
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.63
BlocksContext
5.10
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
64%
Save rateContext
76%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
427
PassesContext
362
348
Accurate passesContext
287
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.30
FoulsContext
9.40
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Wolves
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km525 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Burnley
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel135 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Wolves |
Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 135 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 525 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Wolves
Confirmed XI
31S. Johnstone(G)
3Hugo Bueno
37L. Krejčí
4S. Bueno
26K. Hoever
27J. Bellegarde
7André
5M. Munetsi
21R. Gomes
9J. Strand Larsen
10J. Arias
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman
5M. Estève
6A. Tuanzebe
2K. Walker
16Florentino
24J. Cullen
11J. Anthony
8L. Ugochukwu
7J. Bruun Larsen
19Z. Flemming
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Wolves
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Burnley
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Wolves+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Burnley-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Wolves · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.75
Burnley · Away
0.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Wolves | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Tottenham | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Leeds | L 1–3 H | W 2–0 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–4 H | L 1–5 A |
| Points | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Wolves wins2 draws3 Burnley wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 50%
- 2 Apr 2024Burnley1–1Wolves
- 5 Dec 2023Wolves1–0Burnley
- 24 Apr 2022Burnley1–0Wolves
- 1 Dec 2021Wolves0–0Burnley
- 25 Apr 2021Wolves0–4Burnley
- 21 Dec 2020Burnley2–1Wolves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Wolves | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.63 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 3.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Wolves | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.63 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 3.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Wolves | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 2.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.29 | 6.88 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.63 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 3.63 | 3.00 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Wolves | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.88 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 9.50 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.10 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tony Harrington 75 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.72league 3.62
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+29%league 40%
Fouls21.2league 22.0
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins45%league 49%
Wolves5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W26 Dec 24H · Manchester United2–02
- L6 Apr 24H · West Ham1–25
- W9 Mar 24H · Fulham2–12
- D15 May 22H · Norwich1–10
- W15 Dec 21A · Brighton1–00
Burnley5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W11 Apr 25H · Norwich2–12
- D31 Aug 24H · Blackburn1–14
- D12 Jan 24H · Luton1–11
- L23 Sep 23H · Manchester United0–11
- W25 Oct 22H · Norwich1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Wolves8 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Burnley8 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 8 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
2
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
