Wolves vs Chelsea – 7 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 25 Sat, Feb 7 · 15:00 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves 20th · 8 pts · 24 played WDDLL

1–3Full time

Chelsea 5th · 40 pts · 24 played DLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were clear favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Wolves. Wolves had 7 days of rest, Chelsea 6.9 and had to travel 182 km.

Away travel182 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Wolves18%

Draw21%

Chelsea60%

Expected goals 1.09 – 2.11

Wolves18%

Draw23%

Chelsea59%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.91

Wolves18%

Draw22%

Chelsea60%

Expected goals 1.05 – 2.08

Wolves13%

Draw19%

Chelsea68%

Expected goals 0.97 – 2.36

Wolves19%

Draw23%

Chelsea58%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.94

Over 2.5 62% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 99

Team strength

Wolves

Chelsea

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 85

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

41 AttackIn forecast 77

46 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

Chelsea

0.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.75

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

46% Scored inContext 92%

8% Clean sheetsContext 38%

9.33 ShotsContext 13.42

3.35 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.79

34% On target shareContext 36%

6.05 Shots in the boxContext 9.35

62% Box shareContext 69%

7% ConversionContext 13%

2.06 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.00 Shots allowedContext 11.21

4.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.09

4.40 BlocksContext 3.18

2.82 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

61% Save rateContext 73%

44% PossessionIn forecast 58%

382 PassesContext 524

307 Accurate passesContext 452

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.69 Team ratingContext 7.03

14.00 FoulsContext 11.21

10.29 Fouls sufferedContext 12.17

2.17 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.17

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 2.42

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

60% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.20 ShotsContext 14.50

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

39% On target shareContext 39%

7.25 Shots in the boxContext 10.22

58% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.33

10.80 Shots allowedContext 11.90

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

2.86 BlocksContext 3.80

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

67% Save rateContext 74%

43% PossessionIn forecast 59%

389 PassesContext 584

318 Accurate passesContext 516

82% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.81 Team ratingContext 7.02

12.70 FoulsContext 9.60

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km200 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel182 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Jan	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	182 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	200 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1José Sá(G)

3Hugo Bueno 4S. Bueno 15Y. Mosquera 2M. Doherty

47A. Gomes 8João Gomes

9A. Armstrong 36Mateus Mané 11H. Hwang

14T. Arokodare

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 23T. Chalobah 29W. Fofana 27M. Gusto

25M. Caicedo 17Andrey Santos

8E. Fernández 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto

20João Pedro

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Chelsea-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home 0.42points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-9
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 2.08

Chelsea · Away 1.58points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 5-4-3
Scored: 1.83
Conceded: 1.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Wolves	Chelsea
Bournemouth	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Manchester City	L 0–2 AL 0–4 H	D 1–1 A
Newcastle	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 A
Everton	D 1–1 AL 2–3 H	W 2–0 H
West Ham	W 3–0 H	W 3–2 HW 5–1 A
Manchester United	D 1–1 AL 1–4 H	L 1–2 A
Liverpool	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Brentford	L 0–2 H	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Arsenal	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
Nottingham Forest	L 0–1 H	W 3–0 A
Aston Villa	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 H	W 3–1 AD 0–0 H
Fulham	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
Burnley	L 2–3 H	W 2–0 A
Sunderland	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 H
Brighton	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 H
Tottenham	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 A
Leeds	L 1–3 H	L 1–3 A
Points	8 of 69 · 0.35 per game	37 of 69 · 1.61 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

3 Wolves wins3 draws4 Chelsea wins

Goals per game1.20 – 2.00 Over 2.570% Both scored50% Clean sheets30% · 40%

8 Nov 2025Chelsea3–0Wolves
20 Jan 2025Chelsea3–1Wolves
25 Aug 2024Wolves2–6Chelsea
4 Feb 2024Chelsea2–4Wolves
24 Dec 2023Wolves2–1Chelsea
8 Apr 2023Wolves1–0Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	0.63	1.75
Conceded per game	1.88	1.13
Match goals	2.50	2.88	3.20
Over 1.5	79%	88%
Over 2.5	42%	63%	62%
Over 3.5	21%	33%
Both teams scored	42%	63%	59%
Clean sheets	8%	38%
Failed to score	54%	8%
Games	24	24

	Wolves	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.70
Conceded per game	1.60	1.20
Match goals	2.40	2.90	3.20
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	62%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	59%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	3.59	6.13
Corners conceded	6.36	4.43
Match total	9.95	10.56	10.00
Over 8.5	77% 17/22	87% 20/23
Over 9.5	68% 15/22	78% 18/23
Over 10.5	45% 10/22	52% 12/23
Cards
Cards	2.25	2.54
Opponent cards	1.54	2.38
Match total	3.79	4.92	3.86
Over 3.5	63% 15/24	67% 16/24
Over 4.5	42% 10/24	63% 15/24

	Wolves	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	5.22	6.90
Corners conceded	5.11	4.50
Match total	10.33	11.40	10.00
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.50
Opponent cards	1.60	2.50
Match total	3.80	5.00	3.86
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 99 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 3.71

Red cards0.10league 0.12

Cards 5+37%league 38%

Fouls20.1league 21.3

Penalties0.21league 0.20

Home wins38%league 45%

Wolves7 with this referee

Record2-2-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.9 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

D5 Oct 25H · Brighton1–12
L16 Aug 25H · Manchester City0–41
L17 Aug 24A · Arsenal0–22
L1 Feb 24H · Manchester United3–42
W5 Dec 23H · Burnley1–02

Chelsea7 with this referee

Record2-4-1 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

W1 Nov 25A · Tottenham1–02
D1 Sep 24H · Crystal Palace1–14
W4 Apr 24H · Manchester United4–33
D2 Mar 24A · Brentford2–21
L24 Sep 23H · Aston Villa0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.