Wolves vs Leeds – 20 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 20 · 15:00 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves 20th · 0 pts · 4 played LLLL

1–3Full time

Leeds 16th · 4 pts · 4 played WLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Leeds were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 51). Wolves had 7 days of rest, Leeds 7 and had to travel 140 km.

Away travel140 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Wolves36%

Draw26%

Leeds38%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.45

Wolves36%

Draw27%

Leeds37%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.35

Wolves36%

Draw26%

Leeds38%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.45

Wolves29%

Draw26%

Leeds45%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.62

Wolves36%

Draw27%

Leeds37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.35

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 185

Team strength

Wolves

Leeds

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

41 AttackIn forecast 69

46 DefenceIn forecast 77

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

Leeds

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.25

2.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.66 xGVia Att/Def 0.95

1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.70

25% Scored inContext 25%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

8.75 ShotsContext 11.00

2.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.00

31% On target shareContext 18%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.25

64% Box shareContext 58%

6% ConversionContext 2%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.67

13.75 Shots allowedContext 9.50

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75

4.50 BlocksContext 3.33

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

58% Save rateContext 100%

46% PossessionIn forecast 44%

392 PassesContext 393

308 Accurate passesContext 315

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.59 Team ratingContext 6.60

15.25 FoulsContext 10.50

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.75

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.91

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.80

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

50% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 60%

10.50 ShotsContext 14.50

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

31% On target shareContext 32%

6.40 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

60% Box shareContext 68%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.22

11.60 Shots allowedContext 7.80

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.43

3.11 BlocksContext 3.14

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.71

69% Save rateContext 100%

49% PossessionIn forecast 57%

438 PassesContext 530

363 Accurate passesContext 456

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.81 Team ratingContext 7.06

12.00 FoulsContext 8.30

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km535 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Leeds

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel140 km544 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep	7Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	140 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	535 km	544 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1José Sá(G)

24Toti Gomes 15Y. Mosquera 12E. Agbadou

21R. Gomes 37L. Krejčí 8João Gomes 38J. Tchatchoua

27J. Bellegarde 28Fer López

14T. Arokodare

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Leeds Confirmed XI

4-3-3

26K. Darlow(G)

3G. Gudmundsson 5P. Struijk 6J. Rodon 2J. Bogle

8S. Longstaff 4E. Ampadu 18A. Stach

19N. Okafor 9D. Calvert-Lewin 11B. Aaronson

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Leeds Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves+0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Leeds-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home 0.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.50

Leeds · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Wolves	Leeds
Newcastle	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
Everton	L 2–3 H	W 1–0 H
Points	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Wolves wins1 draws3 Leeds wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.67 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

18 Mar 2023Wolves2–4Leeds
6 Aug 2022Leeds2–1Wolves
18 Mar 2022Wolves2–3Leeds
23 Oct 2021Leeds1–1Wolves
19 Feb 2021Wolves1–0Leeds
19 Oct 2020Leeds0–1Wolves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	0.25
Conceded per game	2.25	1.50
Match goals	2.75	1.75	2.85
Over 1.5	50%	25%
Over 2.5	50%	25%	54%
Over 3.5	50%	25%
Both teams scored	25%	0%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	75%	75%
Games	4	4

	Wolves	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	0.25
Conceded per game	2.25	1.50
Match goals	2.75	1.75	2.85
Over 1.5	50%	25%
Over 2.5	50%	25%	54%
Over 3.5	50%	25%
Both teams scored	25%	0%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	75%	75%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	3.25	4.25
Corners conceded	6.00	3.00
Match total	9.25	7.25	9.53
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/4
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.25
Opponent cards	1.50	1.00
Match total	4.00	2.25	3.60
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/4
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/4

	Wolves	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	5.33
Corners conceded	5.00	2.78
Match total	9.22	8.11	9.53
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.40
Opponent cards	1.50	1.20
Match total	3.40	2.60	3.60
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 185 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.69league 3.54

Red cards0.16league 0.12

Cards 5+34%league 41%

Fouls21.1league 22.5

Penalties0.29league 0.29

Home wins34%league 51%

Wolves12 with this referee

Record3-3-6 Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds1

W13 Apr 25H · Tottenham4–21
W22 Dec 24A · Leicester3–00
D2 Nov 24H · Crystal Palace2–21
L28 Sep 24H · Liverpool1–22
W17 Feb 24A · Tottenham2–11

Leeds10 with this referee

Record3-3-4 Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.9 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

L28 May 23H · Tottenham1–43
L23 Oct 22H · Fulham2–31
L11 May 22H · Chelsea0–32
D2 Apr 22H · Southampton1–11
W31 Oct 21A · Norwich2–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.