Wolves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Liverpool were clear favourites.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Wolves. Wolves had 4 days of rest, Liverpool 3.2 and had to travel 108 km.
Away travel108 kmRest days4 · 3.2Matches / 14d3 · 2
Wolves16%
Draw20%
Liverpool64%
Wolves16%
Draw22%
Liverpool61%
Wolves16%
Draw20%
Liverpool64%
Wolves11%
Draw17%
Liverpool72%
Wolves17%
Draw21%
Liverpool62%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)
No weather data yet
RefereeThomas Bramall
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 104
Team strength
Wolves
Liverpool
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
88
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
84
41
AttackIn forecast
85
46
DefenceIn forecast
84
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
WolvesLiverpool
0.69
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.68
1.76
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
48%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
9.24
ShotsContext
15.64
3.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.59
35%
On target shareContext
28%
5.96
Shots in the boxContext
10.14
62%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.79
Shots allowedContext
11.07
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
4.60
BlocksContext
3.44
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.64
64%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
372
PassesContext
539
297
Accurate passesContext
463
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.41
FoulsContext
9.57
10.86
Fouls sufferedContext
10.57
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.54
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
2.21
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.59
50%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.30
ShotsContext
19.90
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
36%
On target shareContext
31%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
13.40
57%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.80
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
4.11
BlocksContext
3.40
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
70%
Save rateContext
72%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
385
PassesContext
518
314
Accurate passesContext
446
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.13
11.70
FoulsContext
10.10
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Wolves
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km363 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Liverpool
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel108 km264 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Wolves |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Feb | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 108 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 363 km | 264 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 11.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Wolves
Confirmed XI
1José Sá(G)
37L. Krejčí
4S. Bueno
2M. Doherty
6D. Møller Wolfe
8João Gomes
7André
36Mateus Mané
38J. Tchatchoua
47A. Gomes
9A. Armstrong
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
30J. Frimpong
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
8D. Szoboszlai
11Mohamed Salah
22H. Ekitiké
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Wolves
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Liverpool
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Wolves-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Liverpool+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Wolves · Home
0.60points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-10
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Liverpool · Away
1.50points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-5
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Wolves | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Arsenal | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Chelsea | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Bournemouth | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | L 2–3 AW 4–2 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–2 AL 0–4 H | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Newcastle | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 4–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Everton | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| West Ham | W 3–0 H | W 5–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| Brentford | L 0–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Fulham | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Burnley | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Sunderland | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Brighton | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Tottenham | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Leeds | L 1–3 H | D 0–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Points | 13 of 84 · 0.46 per game | 45 of 81 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
1 Wolves wins0 draws9 Liverpool wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.80
Over 2.560%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets10% · 40%
- 27 Dec 2025Liverpool2–1Wolves
- 16 Feb 2025Liverpool2–1Wolves
- 28 Sep 2024Wolves1–2Liverpool
- 19 May 2024Liverpool2–0Wolves
- 16 Sep 2023Wolves1–3Liverpool
- 1 Mar 2023Liverpool2–0Wolves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Wolves | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.69 | 1.68 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.76 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 2.45 | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 61% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 61% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 52% | 14% | |
| Games | 29 | 28 |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.80 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Wolves | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 6.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.23 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 9.61 | 10.67 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 19/26 | 81% 22/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 17/26 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 10/26 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.24 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.62 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 3.68 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 17/29 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 12/29 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Wolves | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 8.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 13.10 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.60 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Bramall 104 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.76
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls22.0league 21.5
Penalties0.19league 0.21
Home wins48%league 43%
Wolves7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D30 Dec 25A · Manchester United1–12
- L23 Aug 25A · Bournemouth0–15
- W9 Nov 24H · Southampton2–01
- L11 May 24H · Crystal Palace1–33
- D2 Apr 24A · Burnley1–12
Liverpool2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W27 Apr 25H · Tottenham5–12
- W19 Aug 23H · Bournemouth3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Wolves29 games · scored 20 · conceded 51
2
7
0-15
2
6
16-30
6
12
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
12
61-75
4
10
76-90
Liverpool28 games · scored 47 · conceded 37
3
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
11
5
31-45
9
6
46-60
6
7
61-75
16
12
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 28 · conceded 10
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
7
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
6
2
61-75
8
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
