Wolves vs Newcastle – 18 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 22 Sun, Jan 18 · 14:00 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves 20th · 7 pts · 21 played LLDWD

0–0Full time

Newcastle 9th · 32 pts · 21 played DLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Newcastle were slight favourites.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 43). Wolves had 10.8 days of rest, Newcastle 10.7 and had to travel 268 km.

Away travel268 kmRest days10.8 · 10.7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Wolves22%

Draw24%

Newcastle54%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.86

Wolves22%

Draw25%

Newcastle53%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.73

Wolves22%

Draw24%

Newcastle55%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.85

Wolves17%

Draw21%

Newcastle62%

Expected goals 0.99 – 2.09

Wolves22%

Draw25%

Newcastle53%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.74

Over 2.5 57% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 73

Team strength

Wolves

Newcastle

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

41 AttackIn forecast 61

46 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

Newcastle

0.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.52

1.95 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

52% Scored inContext 76%

5% Clean sheetsContext 29%

9.05 ShotsContext 12.95

3.35 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.81

35% On target shareContext 37%

6.05 Shots in the boxContext 8.48

64% Box shareContext 63%

8% ConversionContext 12%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.33 Shots allowedContext 10.90

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.86

4.61 BlocksContext 3.67

2.95 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

62% Save rateContext 70%

45% PossessionIn forecast 53%

383 PassesContext 456

307 Accurate passesContext 380

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.96

14.14 FoulsContext 9.85

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.43

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.93

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

70% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.00 ShotsContext 15.40

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

41% On target shareContext 39%

6.78 Shots in the boxContext 11.10

65% Box shareContext 71%

14% ConversionContext 12%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.50

12.90 Shots allowedContext 12.30

4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

4.63 BlocksContext 3.78

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

64% Save rateContext 70%

44% PossessionIn forecast 58%

389 PassesContext 508

318 Accurate passesContext 433

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.81 Team ratingContext 7.05

14.50 FoulsContext 7.80

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest10.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km216 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest10.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel268 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	10.8Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan	10.7Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	268 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	216 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1José Sá(G)

37L. Krejčí 4S. Bueno 15Y. Mosquera

3Hugo Bueno 36Mateus Mané 7André 8João Gomes 38J. Tchatchoua

11H. Hwang 14T. Arokodare

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 2K. Trippier

7Joelinton 8S. Tonali 39Bruno Guimarães

10A. Gordon 27N. Woltemade 11H. Barnes

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves+0.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Newcastle-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home 0.40points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-8
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.30

Newcastle · Away 0.90points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Wolves	Newcastle
Everton	D 1–1 AL 2–3 H	W 4–1 A
West Ham	W 3–0 H	L 1–3 A
Manchester United	D 1–1 AL 1–4 H	L 0–1 A
Liverpool	L 1–2 A	L 2–3 H
Brentford	L 0–2 H	L 1–3 A
Arsenal	L 1–2 A	L 1–2 H
Nottingham Forest	L 0–1 H	W 2–0 H
Aston Villa	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 A
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 H	W 2–0 H
Chelsea	L 0–3 A	D 2–2 H
Fulham	L 0–3 A	W 2–1 H
Burnley	L 2–3 H	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H
Sunderland	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 A
Brighton	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Tottenham	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 H
Leeds	L 1–3 H	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A
Bournemouth	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 A
Manchester City	L 0–4 H	W 2–1 H
Points	7 of 60 · 0.35 per game	29 of 60 · 1.45 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

1 Wolves wins3 draws6 Newcastle wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.70 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%

13 Sep 2025Newcastle1–0Wolves
15 Jan 2025Newcastle3–0Wolves
15 Sep 2024Wolves1–2Newcastle
2 Mar 2024Newcastle3–0Wolves
28 Oct 2023Wolves2–2Newcastle
12 Mar 2023Newcastle2–1Wolves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	0.71	1.52
Conceded per game	1.95	1.29
Match goals	2.67	2.81	2.97
Over 1.5	81%	71%
Over 2.5	48%	62%	57%
Over 3.5	24%	38%
Both teams scored	48%	62%	57%
Clean sheets	5%	29%
Failed to score	48%	24%
Games	21	21

	Wolves	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	2.10
Conceded per game	1.60	1.30
Match goals	2.40	3.40	2.97
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	57%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	57%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	3.37	6.43
Corners conceded	6.47	5.29
Match total	9.84	11.72	9.91
Over 8.5	74% 14/19	76% 16/21
Over 9.5	63% 12/19	62% 13/21
Over 10.5	42% 8/19	52% 11/21
Cards
Cards	2.19	1.48
Opponent cards	1.48	2.43
Match total	3.67	3.91	3.88
Over 3.5	57% 12/21	48% 10/21
Over 4.5	43% 9/21	33% 7/21

	Wolves	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	7.50
Corners conceded	6.00	5.30
Match total	10.33	12.80	9.91
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.80
Opponent cards	1.40	3.30
Match total	3.70	5.10	3.88
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 73 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 3.74

Red cards0.07league 0.11

Cards 5+32%league 39%

Fouls20.3league 21.3

Penalties0.26league 0.20

Home wins38%league 46%

Wolves3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W26 Apr 25H · Leicester3–01
L16 Mar 24H · Coventry2–32
D9 Dec 23H · Nottingham Forest1–10

Newcastle3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.0.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

W22 Nov 25H · Manchester City2–11
W25 Jan 25A · Southampton3–10
W16 Dec 23H · Fulham3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.