Clubs Compare

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Real strength. Different football profiles.

Aston Villa

Premier League · 2026-2027

Rating as of 20 Oct 2026
Power84.3
The football profile

Club DNA

Aston VillaNottingham Forest

Strength Profile · Current

Fixed 0–100 ratings. Power is the Elo baseline; Attack and Defence use a common reference opponent. Form is opponent-adjusted.

Strength profile radarCommon axes run from zero at the centre to 100 at the edge. Exact values appear alongside. A missing metric leaves the shape incomplete. 255075100 Power Attack Defence Form Consistency Squad Availability Aston Villa · Power 84.3 ptsAston Villa · Attack 83.4 ptsAston Villa · Defence 78.0 ptsAston Villa · Form 84.1 ptsAston Villa · Consistency 55.0 ptsAston Villa · Squad Availability 86.1 % Nottingham Forest · Power 70.3 ptsNottingham Forest · Attack 68.1 ptsNottingham Forest · Defence 73.8 ptsNottingham Forest · Form 40.7 ptsNottingham Forest · Consistency 56.7 ptsNottingham Forest · Squad Availability 74.9 % Strength profile radarCommon axes run from zero at the centre to 100 at the edge. Exact values appear alongside. A missing metric leaves the shape incomplete. 255075100 Power Attack Defence Form Consistency SquadAvailability Aston Villa · Power 84.3 ptsAston Villa · Attack 83.4 ptsAston Villa · Defence 78.0 ptsAston Villa · Form 84.1 ptsAston Villa · Consistency 55.0 ptsAston Villa · Squad Availability 86.1 % Nottingham Forest · Power 70.3 ptsNottingham Forest · Attack 68.1 ptsNottingham Forest · Defence 73.8 ptsNottingham Forest · Form 40.7 ptsNottingham Forest · Consistency 56.7 ptsNottingham Forest · Squad Availability 74.9 %
Ratings · 0–100 · Availability is a percentage

Strength comparison

Point gaps · Availability in percentage points

84.3Power70.3
Aston Villa +14.0 pts
83.4Attack68.1
Aston Villa +15.3 pts
78.0Defence73.8
Aston Villa +4.2 pts
84.1Form40.7
Aston Villa +43.4 pts
55.0Consistency56.7
Nottingham Forest +1.7 pts
86.1%Squad Availability74.9%
Aston Villa +11.2 pp

Consistency measures variation in points minus LOAD90 expected points, centred on the club’s average gap. Higher means less variation, not better results. Squad Availability is the percentage of model-weighted squad available for the last completed match, using its saved pre-match snapshot. It does not predict readiness for the next match. Missing historical data stays unavailable.

What separates them

The Difference

  • Aston Villa shows better recent form.
  • Aston Villa has the stronger attacking profile.
  • Aston Villa has the higher Power rating.
  • Aston Villa had more of its weighted squad available for its last completed match.
Descriptive rating gaps, not a match forecast. Small gaps are left out; missing ratings are not compared.

Aston Villa · Form 5/5 · Consistency 20/20 covered matches · 3 pre-match / 17 historical forecast backfills · Availability · last completed match 17 Oct 2026

Nottingham Forest · Form 5/5 · Consistency 20/20 covered matches · 2 pre-match / 18 historical forecast backfills · Availability · last completed match 18 Oct 2026

How Consistency works

For each match, gap = points earned − LOAD90 expected points. Consistency = 100 × (1 − SD(gaps) / 3), with SD calculated around the window’s mean gap. The endpoints come from the mathematical bounds of point gaps; this is not a fitted percentile or a forecast factor. A constant positive or negative gap can be consistent.

Current uses the latest 20 completed tracked matches within one year. At least 15 usable forecasts and 75% coverage are required. A 15–19-match score is provisional; comparative Consistency insights require 20 each. Historical backfills are reconstructed expectations, not forecasts archived before kickoff. Result randomness and changes in model calibration can affect the score.

Aston Villa · Current gap SD 1.35 points · mean gap 0.14 · Full window

Nottingham Forest · Current gap SD 1.30 points · mean gap 0.10 · Full window

Playing Style · Current

Observed profile · last 10 matches before each club’s reference fixture. Native units and coverage are shown below.

Playing style radarEach axis has its own labelled native range, shared by both clubs and both periods. Grid rings mark quarters of those ranges. Exact values appear alongside; missing data leaves the shape incomplete. Possession 0–100 % Pass accuracy 0–100 % Shots in the box 0–100 % On target share 0–100 % Shot Frequency 0–6 shots/100 passes Corner Pressure 0–12 corners/90 Aston Villa · Possession 46.1 %Aston Villa · Pass accuracy 84.3 %Aston Villa · Shots in the box 64.9 %Aston Villa · On target share 34.6 %Aston Villa · Shot Frequency 3.4 shots/100 passesAston Villa · Corner Pressure 4.0 corners/90 Nottingham Forest · Possession 46.2 %Nottingham Forest · Pass accuracy 79.7 %Nottingham Forest · Shots in the box 64.8 %Nottingham Forest · On target share 24.5 %Nottingham Forest · Shot Frequency 4.2 shots/100 passesNottingham Forest · Corner Pressure 4.7 corners/90 Playing style radarEach axis has its own labelled native range, shared by both clubs and both periods. Grid rings mark quarters of those ranges. Exact values appear alongside; missing data leaves the shape incomplete. Possession 0–100 % Passaccuracy 0–100 % Shots inthe box 0–100 % On targetshare 0–100 % ShotFrequency 0–6 shots/100 passes CornerPressure 0–12 corners/90 Aston Villa · Possession 46.1 %Aston Villa · Pass accuracy 84.3 %Aston Villa · Shots in the box 64.9 %Aston Villa · On target share 34.6 %Aston Villa · Shot Frequency 3.4 shots/100 passesAston Villa · Corner Pressure 4.0 corners/90 Nottingham Forest · Possession 46.2 %Nottingham Forest · Pass accuracy 79.7 %Nottingham Forest · Shots in the box 64.8 %Nottingham Forest · On target share 24.5 %Nottingham Forest · Shot Frequency 4.2 shots/100 passesNottingham Forest · Corner Pressure 4.7 corners/90
Native units · axis ranges shown · larger is not better

How they play

Differences in each metric’s native units

46.1%Possession46.2%
Nottingham Forest +0.1 pp
84.3%Pass accuracy79.7%
Aston Villa +4.6 pp
64.9%Shots in the box64.8%
Aston Villa +0.1 pp
34.6%On target share24.5%
Aston Villa +10.1 pp
3.4Shot Frequency4.2
Nottingham Forest +0.8 shots/100 passes
4.0Corner Pressure4.7
Nottingham Forest +0.7 corners/90

Shot Frequency = shots per 100 passes on the same covered matches: how quickly passing sequences turn into attempts. Corner Pressure = corners per completed 90-minute game. These describe attacking tendencies, not strength; extra time and custom-length games are excluded.

These are observed profiles. League and schedule differences can affect them. The radar uses native axis ranges shared by both clubs and both periods; a larger shape does not imply superiority.

Aston Villa · Window 10 matches · before 24 Oct 2026 · Shot Frequency 10/10 · Corner Pressure 10/10 covered regulation matches. Per-metric coverage of the four percentage shares is unavailable.

Nottingham Forest · Window 10 matches · before 23 Oct 2026 · Shot Frequency 10/10 · Corner Pressure 10/10 covered regulation matches. Per-metric coverage of the four percentage shares is unavailable.

Strength Profile · Season Average

Match-sampled averages of available ratings this season, across tracked competitions. These are not time-weighted averages or a measure of consistency.

Strength profile radarCommon axes run from zero at the centre to 100 at the edge. Exact values appear alongside. A missing metric leaves the shape incomplete. 255075100 Power Attack Defence Form Consistency Squad Availability Aston Villa · Power 83.3 ptsAston Villa · Attack 81.2 ptsAston Villa · Defence 77.5 ptsAston Villa · Form 60.0 ptsAston Villa · Consistency 55.5 ptsAston Villa · Squad Availability 85.2 % Nottingham Forest · Power 73.2 ptsNottingham Forest · Form 48.8 ptsNottingham Forest · Consistency 58.0 pts Strength profile radarCommon axes run from zero at the centre to 100 at the edge. Exact values appear alongside. A missing metric leaves the shape incomplete. 255075100 Power Attack Defence Form Consistency SquadAvailability Aston Villa · Power 83.3 ptsAston Villa · Attack 81.2 ptsAston Villa · Defence 77.5 ptsAston Villa · Form 60.0 ptsAston Villa · Consistency 55.5 ptsAston Villa · Squad Availability 85.2 % Nottingham Forest · Power 73.2 ptsNottingham Forest · Form 48.8 ptsNottingham Forest · Consistency 58.0 pts
Ratings · 0–100 · Availability is a percentage

Strength comparison

Point gaps · Availability in percentage points

83.3Power73.2
Aston Villa +10.1 pts
81.2Attack—
Shared data unavailable
77.5Defence—
Shared data unavailable
60.0Form48.8
Aston Villa +11.2 pts
55.5Consistency58.0
Nottingham Forest +2.5 pts
85.2%Squad Availability—
Shared data unavailable

Consistency measures variation in points minus LOAD90 expected points, centred on the club’s average gap. Higher means less variation, not better results. Squad Availability is the percentage of model-weighted squad available for the last completed match, using its saved pre-match snapshot. It does not predict readiness for the next match. Missing historical data stays unavailable.

What separates them

The Difference

  • Aston Villa has the higher average Form value.
  • Aston Villa has the higher average Power value.
Descriptive rating gaps, not a match forecast. Small gaps are left out; missing ratings are not compared.

Aston Villa · Power 9 · Attack 3 · Defence 3 · Form 6 · Consistency 9 · Squad Availability 3 · 3 pre-match / 6 historical Elo backfills. Minimum 3 observations per average. Consistency averages eligible rolling windows, which overlap; availability uses genuine pre-match snapshots only. Historical Form is reconstructed using the current calibration.

Nottingham Forest · Power 7 · Attack 2 · Defence 2 · Form 4 · Consistency 7 · Squad Availability 2 · 2 pre-match / 5 historical Elo backfills. Minimum 3 observations per average. Consistency averages eligible rolling windows, which overlap; availability uses genuine pre-match snapshots only. Historical Form is reconstructed using the current calibration.

How Consistency works

For each match, gap = points earned − LOAD90 expected points. Consistency = 100 × (1 − SD(gaps) / 3), with SD calculated around the window’s mean gap. The endpoints come from the mathematical bounds of point gaps; this is not a fitted percentile or a forecast factor. A constant positive or negative gap can be consistent.

Current uses the latest 20 completed tracked matches within one year. At least 15 usable forecasts and 75% coverage are required. A 15–19-match score is provisional; comparative Consistency insights require 20 each. Historical backfills are reconstructed expectations, not forecasts archived before kickoff. Result randomness and changes in model calibration can affect the score.

Aston Villa · Current gap SD 1.35 points · mean gap 0.14 · Full window

Nottingham Forest · Current gap SD 1.30 points · mean gap 0.10 · Full window

Playing Style · Season Average

Observed profile · league season before each club’s reference fixture. Native units and coverage are shown below.

Playing style radarEach axis has its own labelled native range, shared by both clubs and both periods. Grid rings mark quarters of those ranges. Exact values appear alongside; missing data leaves the shape incomplete. Possession 0–100 % Pass accuracy 0–100 % Shots in the box 0–100 % On target share 0–100 % Shot Frequency 0–6 shots/100 passes Corner Pressure 0–12 corners/90 Aston Villa · Possession 47.6 %Aston Villa · Pass accuracy 82.7 %Aston Villa · Shots in the box 63.9 %Aston Villa · On target share 26.5 %Aston Villa · Shot Frequency 2.9 shots/100 passesAston Villa · Corner Pressure 3.1 corners/90 Nottingham Forest · Possession 45.6 %Nottingham Forest · Pass accuracy 78.9 %Nottingham Forest · Shots in the box 60.7 %Nottingham Forest · On target share 20.8 %Nottingham Forest · Shot Frequency 4.6 shots/100 passesNottingham Forest · Corner Pressure 4.7 corners/90 Playing style radarEach axis has its own labelled native range, shared by both clubs and both periods. Grid rings mark quarters of those ranges. Exact values appear alongside; missing data leaves the shape incomplete. Possession 0–100 % Passaccuracy 0–100 % Shots inthe box 0–100 % On targetshare 0–100 % ShotFrequency 0–6 shots/100 passes CornerPressure 0–12 corners/90 Aston Villa · Possession 47.6 %Aston Villa · Pass accuracy 82.7 %Aston Villa · Shots in the box 63.9 %Aston Villa · On target share 26.5 %Aston Villa · Shot Frequency 2.9 shots/100 passesAston Villa · Corner Pressure 3.1 corners/90 Nottingham Forest · Possession 45.6 %Nottingham Forest · Pass accuracy 78.9 %Nottingham Forest · Shots in the box 60.7 %Nottingham Forest · On target share 20.8 %Nottingham Forest · Shot Frequency 4.6 shots/100 passesNottingham Forest · Corner Pressure 4.7 corners/90
Native units · axis ranges shown · larger is not better

How they play

Differences in each metric’s native units

47.6%Possession45.6%
Aston Villa +2.0 pp
82.7%Pass accuracy78.9%
Aston Villa +3.8 pp
63.9%Shots in the box60.7%
Aston Villa +3.2 pp
26.5%On target share20.8%
Aston Villa +5.7 pp
2.9Shot Frequency4.6
Nottingham Forest +1.7 shots/100 passes
3.1Corner Pressure4.7
Nottingham Forest +1.6 corners/90

Shot Frequency = shots per 100 passes on the same covered matches: how quickly passing sequences turn into attempts. Corner Pressure = corners per completed 90-minute game. These describe attacking tendencies, not strength; extra time and custom-length games are excluded.

These are observed profiles. League and schedule differences can affect them. The radar uses native axis ranges shared by both clubs and both periods; a larger shape does not imply superiority.

Aston Villa · Window 7 matches · before 24 Oct 2026 · Shot Frequency 7/7 · Corner Pressure 7/7 covered regulation matches. Per-metric coverage of the four percentage shares is unavailable.

Nottingham Forest · Window 7 matches · before 23 Oct 2026 · Shot Frequency 7/7 · Corner Pressure 7/7 covered regulation matches. Per-metric coverage of the four percentage shares is unavailable.

The season so far

Historical Trend

Power · 0–100

Base Power at recorded match dates. Solid lines join saved pre-match ratings; dashed segments include historical Elo backfills. The same fixed scale is used for both clubs.

Season Power historyAvailable pre-match Power observations and historical Elo backfills. Lines connect observations, not daily measurements. Exact dates and values are available in the table below. 0255075100 Aston Villa · 2026-08-23 13:00:00 UTC · 85.5 · backfill Aston Villa · 2026-08-31 19:00:00 UTC · 83.8 · backfill Aston Villa · 2026-09-05 16:30:00 UTC · 83.1 · backfill Aston Villa · 2026-09-08 16:45:00 UTC · 82.5 · backfill Aston Villa · 2026-09-12 14:00:00 UTC · 83.5 · backfill Aston Villa · 2026-09-19 11:30:00 UTC · 82.1 · backfill Aston Villa · 2026-10-10 14:00:00 UTC · 82.9 · pre Aston Villa · 2026-10-14 19:00:00 UTC · 82.5 · pre Aston Villa · 2026-10-17 16:30:00 UTC · 83.4 · pre Nottingham Forest · 2026-08-22 14:00:00 UTC · 74.6 · backfill Nottingham Forest · 2026-08-29 11:30:00 UTC · 72.9 · backfill Nottingham Forest · 2026-09-05 14:00:00 UTC · 73.5 · backfill Nottingham Forest · 2026-09-12 14:00:00 UTC · 72.9 · backfill Nottingham Forest · 2026-09-19 16:30:00 UTC · 74.8 · backfill Nottingham Forest · 2026-10-11 13:00:00 UTC · 72.7 · pre Nottingham Forest · 2026-10-18 15:30:00 UTC · 71 · pre 22 Aug 202618 Oct 2026
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
View history data and coverage
ClubDate (UTC)PowerSource
Aston Villa2026-08-23 13:00:0085.5Historical Elo backfill
Aston Villa2026-08-31 19:00:0083.8Historical Elo backfill
Aston Villa2026-09-05 16:30:0083.1Historical Elo backfill
Aston Villa2026-09-08 16:45:0082.5Historical Elo backfill
Aston Villa2026-09-12 14:00:0083.5Historical Elo backfill
Aston Villa2026-09-19 11:30:0082.1Historical Elo backfill
Aston Villa2026-10-10 14:00:0082.9Saved pre-match
Aston Villa2026-10-14 19:00:0082.5Saved pre-match
Aston Villa2026-10-17 16:30:0083.4Saved pre-match
Nottingham Forest2026-08-22 14:00:0074.6Historical Elo backfill
Nottingham Forest2026-08-29 11:30:0072.9Historical Elo backfill
Nottingham Forest2026-09-05 14:00:0073.5Historical Elo backfill
Nottingham Forest2026-09-12 14:00:0072.9Historical Elo backfill
Nottingham Forest2026-09-19 16:30:0074.8Historical Elo backfill
Nottingham Forest2026-10-11 13:00:0072.7Saved pre-match
Nottingham Forest2026-10-18 15:30:0071.0Saved pre-match
Chances, finishing & results

Efficiency

From chances to results. Exact values share a scale within each row; colours identify the clubs.

Last 10

Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
ConversionGoals / shots · %
13.2% 10/10 covered
5.5% 10/10 covered
Save RateSaves / shots on target faced · %
73.3% 10/10 covered
70.0% 8/10 covered
Goals − xGFinishing gap · per match
+0.28 10/10 covered
-0.66 10/10 covered
xGA − GAGoals prevented · per match
+0.26 10/10 covered
+0.13 10/10 covered
Shot QualityObserved xG / shot
0.112 10/10 covered
0.096 10/10 covered
Shot VolumeShots / 90
13.6 10/10 covered
16.3 10/10 covered
xG / matchLeague season · fixed window
1.13 7/7 covered
1.56 7/7 covered
xGA / matchLeague season · fixed window
1.67 7/7 covered
1.18 7/7 covered
Points / gameLeague season · fixed window
1.14 7/7 league matches
0.71 7/7 league matches
Points vs expected · Form windowUp to 5 matches · stored pure forecasts
+1.49 5/5 Form window
-3.18 5/5 Form window

Aston Villa · Statistics before 24 Oct 2026 · Recent results W · W · D · W · L

Nottingham Forest · Statistics before 23 Oct 2026 · Recent results L · L · L · W · D

League season

Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
ConversionGoals / shots · %
8.4% 7/7 covered
4.2% 7/7 covered
Save RateSaves / shots on target faced · %
71.0% 7/7 covered
68.2% 5/7 covered
Goals − xGFinishing gap · per match
-0.13 7/7 covered
-0.85 7/7 covered
xGA − GAGoals prevented · per match
+0.09 7/7 covered
-0.10 7/7 covered
Shot QualityObserved xG / shot
0.096 7/7 covered
0.091 7/7 covered
Shot VolumeShots / 90
11.9 7/7 covered
17.1 7/7 covered
xG / matchLeague season · fixed window
1.13 7/7 covered
1.56 7/7 covered
xGA / matchLeague season · fixed window
1.67 7/7 covered
1.18 7/7 covered
Points / gameLeague season · fixed window
1.14 7/7 league matches
0.71 7/7 league matches
Points vs expected · Form windowUp to 5 matches · stored pure forecasts
+1.49 5/5 Form window
-3.18 5/5 Form window

Aston Villa · Statistics before 24 Oct 2026 · Recent results W · W · D · W · L

Nottingham Forest · Statistics before 23 Oct 2026 · Recent results L · L · L · W · D

Positive Goals − xG means more goals scored than the observed chances predicted. Positive xGA − GA means fewer goals conceded than those chances predicted; it reflects defence and goalkeeping together. Gaps are per covered match and pair goals and xG on the same matches. Shot Quality pairs total xG and total shots. Minimum three known matches per metric; missing data stays unavailable.

Butterfly bars grow from the centre towards each club. Length shows magnitude, not superiority; negative gaps use stripes and a minus sign. Percentages use 0–100%, PPG uses 0–3; other rows share the larger absolute value as their limit. xG, xGA and PPG retain their league-season window. Points vs expected retains the latest up to five completed matches with stored pure forecasts across tracked competitions; results are newest first. These observed metrics are not adjusted for league or opponent strength.

About this comparison

Strength ratings share LOAD90’s fixed scales across leagues. Elo reflects opponent quality; Attack and Defence describe performance against the same reference club on a neutral pitch. Form adjusts for opponents and venue. League Strength is not added a second time. Cross-league ratings remain model estimates; sparse connections between leagues and incomplete data limit precision. Explore the methodology →