Aston Villa
Attack+66%
Defense risk−47%
Our take
Aston Villa are clear favourites.
Aston Villa are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Viking. Aston Villa are without J. Manzambi and A. Wan-Bissaka. Aston Villa have 4.1 days of rest, Viking 8 and have to travel 864 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel864 kmRest days4.1 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1
Aston Villa85%
Draw10%
Viking5%
Aston Villa88%
Draw9%
Viking3%
Aston Villa87%
Draw9%
Viking4%
Aston Villa80%
Draw13%
Viking7%
Aston Villa86%
Draw10%
Viking5%
Over 2.5 76%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 3–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 54 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
7°COvercast
- Precipitation 23%
- Wind 20 km/h
- Humidity 70%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Aston Villa and Viking. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Aston Villa
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Aston Villa
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Aston Villa
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
Team strength
Aston Villa
Viking
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
83
AttackIn forecast
18
78
DefenceIn forecast
23
84
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisViking
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaViking
4.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
2.74
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+1.76
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
20.50
ShotsContext
8.00
10.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
49%
On target shareContext
44%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
63%
Box shareContext
71%
22%
ConversionContext
25%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
14.50
Shots allowedContext
20.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.50
BlocksContext
8.00
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
82%
Save rateContext
63%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
363
PassesContext
299
315
Accurate passesContext
211
87%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
7.48
Team ratingContext
6.44
13.00
FoulsContext
12.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.17
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
—
70%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.60
ShotsContext
10.67
5.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
35%
On target shareContext
41%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
65%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.33
15.60
Shots allowedContext
16.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
4.22
BlocksContext
5.17
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
73%
Save rateContext
68%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
404
PassesContext
359
340
Accurate passesContext
269
84%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.67
10.50
FoulsContext
13.33
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.83
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
LWDWW
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km555 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Viking |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Premier League 2026-2027, 17 Oct | 8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 864 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 555 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.7 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Last XI · not confirmed
1Z. Suzuki(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka
5T. Mings
3V. Lindelöf
2M. Cash
35João Gomes
8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía
44J. Manzambi
47Alysson Edward
11N. Jackson
Viking
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Østbø(G)
28K. Haugen
25H. Falchener
6G. Stensness
5H. Heggheim
7K. Askildsen
8J. Bell
16H. Bjørdal
10Z. Tripić
22E. Botheim
20P. Christiansen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −24.2% · Defence line −33.7% of weighted minutes
- MID J. Manzambi Core 7.66 Att −16.2% Def −10.5%
- DEF A. Wan-Bissaka Starter 6.87 Def −11.5%
- MID A. Onana Starter 7.06 Att −7.1% Def −4.6%
- DEF I. Maatsen Rotation 6.55 Def −4.7%
- DEF M. Ruggeri Rotation 6.57 Def −1.9%
- MID George Hemmings Rotation 6.47 Att −0.8% Def −0.5%
Viking
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.9% of weighted minutes
- DEF S. Bjørshol Rotation 6.75 Def −0.9%
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.7 pp
- Viking+0.6 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 6.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Viking · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Viking | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.50 | 5.00 | 3.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | Viking | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.50 | 3.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 100% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Viking | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 9.50 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 14.00 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Aston Villa | Viking | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.17 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.84 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.34 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Aston Villa2 games · scored 9 · conceded 2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Viking2 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Viking6 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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