Ipswich
Attack−2%
Defense risk−5%
Our take
Nottingham Forest are slight favourites.
Nottingham Forest are the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Ipswich. Ipswich have 6.2 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 5.1 and have to travel 185 km. Weather to note: strong wind.
Away travel185 kmRest days6.2 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Ipswich34%
Draw24%
Nottingham Forest42%
Ipswich31%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest42%
Ipswich34%
Draw24%
Nottingham Forest42%
Ipswich27%
Draw23%
Nottingham Forest50%
Ipswich34%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest42%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 hour ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ipswich, Suffolk)
Strong wind
9°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 70%
- Wind 41 km/h
- Humidity 88%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Ipswich and Nottingham Forest. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Ipswich
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Ipswich
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Ipswich
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Nottingham Forest
3
Losses in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row
Attack
Team strength
IpswichNottingham Forest
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
59
AttackIn forecast
68
50
DefenceIn forecast
74
64
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack+26%
Defense risk−14%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
IpswichNottingham Forest
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
2.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
2.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.85
71%
Scored inContext
43%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
11.00
ShotsContext
17.14
4.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
40%
On target shareContext
21%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.43
66%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
4%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.33
16.86
Shots allowedContext
10.57
5.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
5.00
BlocksContext
3.00
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
59%
Save rateContext
68%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
401
PassesContext
370
331
Accurate passesContext
292
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.71
FoulsContext
14.14
9.14
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.66
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.10
ShotsContext
16.30
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
41%
On target shareContext
25%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
67%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.11
16.00
Shots allowedContext
13.60
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
5.10
BlocksContext
4.40
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
66%
Save rateContext
70%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
396
PassesContext
388
323
Accurate passesContext
309
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.70
FoulsContext
13.10
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ipswich
LWLWL
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km555 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Nottingham Forest
DWLLL
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel185 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 4 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ipswich |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Premier League 2026-2027, 17 Oct | 5.1Premier League 2026-2027, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 185 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 555 km | 350 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ipswich
Last XI · not confirmed
28C. Walton(G)
24J. Greaves
6I. Diop
26D. O'Shea
3L. Davis
25E. Palacios
12Florentino
42A. Ouattara
10J. Enciso
38D. Maeda
19Emersonn
Nottingham Forest
Last XI · not confirmed
26M. Sels(G)
5Murillo
2O. Diomande
23Jair
3N. Williams
21X. Schlager
24J. McAtee
27D. Muñoz
14D. Ndoye
8N. Domínguez
19L. Delap
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ipswich
No reported absences
Nottingham Forest
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Ipswich+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nottingham Forest+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Ipswich · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Nottingham Forest · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Ipswich | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | W 3–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Ipswich wins0 draws2 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 15 Mar 2025Ipswich2–4Nottingham Forest
- 30 Nov 2024Nottingham Forest1–0Ipswich
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ipswich | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 2.00 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 43% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Ipswich | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 2.30 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 40% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 60% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 40% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ipswich | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.29 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 8.15 | 9.57 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.15 | 4.00 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Ipswich | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.20 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.50 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Ipswich7 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
61-75
6
1
76-90
Nottingham Forest7 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Ipswich10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
8
2
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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