Brentford vs Nottingham Forest

Premier League Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 31 · 15:00 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 6th · 10 pts · 7 played DDWDL

VS— Compare

Nottingham Forest 19th · 5 pts · 7 played DWLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brentford are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Nottingham Forest. Brentford have 6 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 7.8 and have to travel 173 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel173 kmRest days6 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Brentford48%

Draw24%

Nottingham Forest28%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.36

Brentford47%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.13

Brentford48%

Draw24%

Nottingham Forest28%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.36

Brentford40%

Draw25%

Nottingham Forest36%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.52

Brentford47%

Draw25%

Nottingham Forest28%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.31

Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 8 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

12°CClear

Precipitation 11%
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 69%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Streaks

Team strength

Brentford

Nottingham Forest

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

73 AttackIn forecast 68

73 DefenceIn forecast 74

61 Form indexContext 41

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack−1%

Defense risk−6%

Nottingham Forest

Attack−1%

Defense risk0%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Brentford

Nottingham Forest

1.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71

1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.85

100% Scored inContext 43%

29% Clean sheetsContext 14%

15.00 ShotsContext 17.14

4.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57

28% On target shareContext 21%

11.43 Shots in the boxContext 10.43

76% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 4%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.33

15.43 Shots allowedContext 10.57

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.83

4.43 BlocksContext 3.00

3.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

71% Save rateContext 68%

45% PossessionIn forecast 46%

367 PassesContext 370

283 Accurate passesContext 292

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.79

14.71 FoulsContext 14.14

9.29 Fouls sufferedContext 11.57

2.71 Yellow cardsContext 2.29

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.66

90% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.40 ShotsContext 16.30

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

27% On target shareContext 25%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

74% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 6%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.11

17.30 Shots allowedContext 13.60

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

5.30 BlocksContext 4.40

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

72% Save rateContext 70%

45% PossessionIn forecast 46%

369 PassesContext 388

286 Accurate passesContext 309

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.81

13.30 FoulsContext 13.10

8.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford DDWDL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km502 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 61 · 6 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L17 OctH · Liverpool1–21.5 xPts
D10 OctA · Aston Villa2–21.1 xPts
W18 SepH · Chelsea3–01.6 xPts
D12 SepA · Bournemouth2–21.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Sunderland1–12.0 xPts

Nottingham Forest DWLLL

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel173 km370 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 41 · 4 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected

L18 OctH · Arsenal0–10.9 xPts
L11 OctA · Crystal Palace1–31.4 xPts
L19 SepH · Coventry0–12.1 xPts
W12 SepA · Aston Villa2–11.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Tottenham0–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2026-2027, 25 Oct	7.8Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	173 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	502 km	370 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Liverpool (H) 1–2, 17 Oct

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 4S. van den Berg 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

27V. Janelt 6Y. Yarmoliuk

19J. Anthony 8M. Jensen 11D. Ouattara

9Thiago

Nottingham Forest Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Arsenal (H) 0–1, 18 Oct

26M. Sels(G)

5Murillo 2O. Diomande 23Jair

3N. Williams 21X. Schlager 24J. McAtee 27D. Muñoz

14D. Ndoye 8N. Domínguez

19L. Delap

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford No reported absences

Nottingham Forest No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Nottingham Forest+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.75

Nottingham Forest · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Brentford	Nottingham Forest
Liverpool	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 A
Aston Villa	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 A
Leeds	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 H
Tottenham	W 3–0 H	D 0–0 H
Points	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Brentford wins2 draws3 Nottingham Forest wins

Goals per game1.38 – 1.63 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 25%

25 Jan 2026Brentford0–2Nottingham Forest
17 Aug 2025Nottingham Forest3–1Brentford
1 May 2025Nottingham Forest0–2Brentford
21 Dec 2024Brentford0–2Nottingham Forest
20 Jan 2024Brentford3–2Nottingham Forest
1 Oct 2023Nottingham Forest1–1Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.86	0.71
Conceded per game	1.14	1.29
Match goals	3.00	2.00	3.17
Over 1.5	100%	43%
Over 2.5	71%	43%	61%
Over 3.5	29%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	43%	63%
Clean sheets	29%	14%
Failed to score	0%	57%
Games	7	7

	Brentford	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.40
Match goals	3.00	2.30	3.17
Over 1.5	100%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	61%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	63%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	3.86	4.71
Corners conceded	5.14	4.86
Match total	9.00	9.57	9.49
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.29
Opponent cards	1.86	1.71
Match total	4.86	4.00	4.17
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	29% 2/7

	Brentford	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.70
Corners conceded	6.40	4.50
Match total	10.40	9.20	9.49
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.00
Opponent cards	2.20	1.50
Match total	4.90	3.50	4.17
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.