Insights.
Go beyond the result. Follow the patterns. See the evidence.
Explore insights
Explore competitions →Stories behind the signals
All tracked leagues · 133 signals · 133 clubs in this view
BarcelonaWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score84/100
A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.
- Wins in a rowLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-27 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 10+
- Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - +6.3
- Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-27 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 4.3
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +2.60
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 100.0
- Recency
- 62.4
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 67.9
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Points minus expected — Points 33; xPts 26.7. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Goals scored / match — La Liga 2026-2027: 1.53 goals per team/match, 88 matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 3.55; xG against 0.95. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
LazioPoints ahead. Chance balance tells another story.Insight Score81/100
Points exceed the stored forecasts, while the observed xG profile has no positive balance. Results and chances tell different stories; this does not establish that a reversal is due.
- Points minus expected7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - +8.2
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - −0.15
- Wins in a rowLast 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 3
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 100.0
- Recency
- 64.5
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 51.7
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Points minus expected — Points 19; xPts 10.8. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.15; xG against 1.3. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
FeyenoordWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score80/100
A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.
- Wins in a rowLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 5
- Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - +5.9
- Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 3.4
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +1.33
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 88.7
- Recency
- 62.4
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 66.4
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Points minus expected — Points 26; xPts 20.1. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Goals scored / match — Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.42; xG against 1.09. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
PSV EindhovenChance balance ahead of the points returnInsight Score76/100
A positive observed xG balance sits alongside points below stored forecast expectations. These are different windows: inspect finishing, conceding and individual matches before assigning a cause.
- Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - −3.9
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +1.16
- Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 2.6
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 77.3
- Recency
- 62.4
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 66.4
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Points minus expected — Points 20; xPts 23.9. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.27; xG against 1.11. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Goals scored / match — Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
NapoliChance balance ahead of the points returnInsight Score72/100
A positive observed xG balance sits alongside points below stored forecast expectations. These are different windows: inspect finishing, conceding and individual matches before assigning a cause.
- Points minus expected9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - −3.5
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +1.02
- Goals scored / matchLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 1.2
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 68.0
- Recency
- 62.4
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 63.3
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Points minus expected — Points 10; xPts 13.5. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.81; xG against 0.79. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Goals scored / match — Serie A 2026-2027: 1.48 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.
Results vs forecasts133 signals · 133 clubs
Select a row to explore the evidence. Scroll to see all columns →
Gent
Points above expected
+9.8
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast70
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-10 UTC. Points 22; xPts 12.2. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 100.0
- Recency
- 74.1
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 22.0
- xPts
- 12.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Malaga
Points below expected
−7.2
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast70
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-19 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 4; xPts 11.2. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 77.1
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 4.0
- xPts
- 11.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Real Betis
Points above expected
+9.6
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast75
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 25; xPts 15.4. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 87.3
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 63.6
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 25.0
- xPts
- 15.4
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Estoril
Points below expected
−7.2
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast64
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-10 UTC. Points 2; xPts 9.2. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 83.1
- Recency
- 74.1
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 2.0
- xPts
- 9.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Charleroi
Points above expected
+8.5
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast69
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-11 UTC. Points 21; xPts 12.5. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 98.1
- Recency
- 76.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 21.0
- xPts
- 12.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Points below expected
−7.0
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast74
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 0; xPts 7. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 95.5
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 0.0
- xPts
- 7.0
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →
Lazio
Points above expected
+8.2
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast76
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 19; xPts 10.8. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 100.0
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 19.0
- xPts
- 10.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Samsunspor
Points below expected
−6.5
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast67
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-17 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 4; xPts 10.5. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 75.0
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 4.0
- xPts
- 10.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Atletico Madrid
Points above expected
+8.0
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast70
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-19 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 25; xPts 17. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 72.7
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 63.6
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 25.0
- xPts
- 17.0
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
NEC Nijmegen
Points below expected
−6.2
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast64
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 11; xPts 17.2. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 56.4
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 59.1
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 11.0
- xPts
- 17.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 9.
Full club analysis →
Santa Clara
Points above expected
+6.5
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast61
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-10 → 2026-10-10 UTC. Points 18; xPts 11.5. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 75.0
- Recency
- 74.1
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 18.0
- xPts
- 11.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
1899 Hoffenheim
Points below expected
−6.2
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast68
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 6; xPts 12.2. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 71.5
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 6.0
- xPts
- 12.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Barcelona
Points above expected
+6.3
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast64
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 33; xPts 26.7. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 57.3
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 63.6
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 33.0
- xPts
- 26.7
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Cercle Brugge
Points below expected
−6.1
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast59
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-10 UTC. Points 3; xPts 9.1. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 70.4
- Recency
- 74.1
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 3.0
- xPts
- 9.1
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Fortuna Sittard
Points above expected
+6.2
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast65
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 15; xPts 8.8. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 66.4
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 50.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 15.0
- xPts
- 8.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
LE Havre
Points below expected
−5.9
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast67
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 2; xPts 7.9. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 73.8
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 2.0
- xPts
- 7.9
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Feyenoord
Points above expected
+5.9
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast62
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 26; xPts 20.1. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 53.6
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 59.1
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 26.0
- xPts
- 20.1
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 9.
Full club analysis →
Manchester United
Points below expected
−5.8
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast66
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 10; xPts 15.8. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 62.1
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 10.0
- xPts
- 15.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Frosinone
Points above expected
+5.6
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast64
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-16 UTC. Points 13; xPts 7.4. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 70.0
- Recency
- 90.5
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 13.0
- xPts
- 7.4
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Fiorentina
Points below expected
−5.5
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast65
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 4; xPts 9.5. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 68.8
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 4.0
- xPts
- 9.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
FC Porto
Points above expected
+5.1
9/10 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast57
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/10 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-14 UTC. Points 24; xPts 18.9. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 54.6
- Recency
- 84.7
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/10 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 24.0
- xPts
- 18.9
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Famalicao
Points below expected
−5.4
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast58
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-12 UTC. Points 7; xPts 12.4. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 62.3
- Recency
- 79.2
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 7.0
- xPts
- 12.4
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Arsenal
Points above expected
+5.0
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast63
Arsenal
+5.0
Points above expected
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Points24.0xPts19.0
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 24; xPts 19. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 53.6
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 24.0
- xPts
- 19.0
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Willem II
Points below expected
−5.3
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast61
Willem II
−5.3
Points below expected
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Points2.0xPts7.3
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 2; xPts 7.3. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 56.8
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 50.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 2.0
- xPts
- 7.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Lyon
Points above expected
+5.0
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast63
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 20; xPts 15. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 53.6
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 20.0
- xPts
- 15.0
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Eyüpspor
Points below expected
−5.3
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast62
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 3; xPts 8.3. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 61.2
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 3.0
- xPts
- 8.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Manchester City
Points above expected
+5.0
8/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast61
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 21; xPts 16. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 57.7
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 48.9
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 21.0
- xPts
- 16.0
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Guimaraes
Points below expected
−5.2
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast56
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC. Points 5; xPts 10.2. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 60.0
- Recency
- 76.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 5.0
- xPts
- 10.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Union St. Gilloise
Points above expected
+4.8
10/10 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast58
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 10/10 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Points 24; xPts 19.2. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 48.0
- Recency
- 87.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
10/10 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 24.0
- xPts
- 19.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 9.
Full club analysis →
Valencia
Points below expected
−5.1
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast62
Valencia
−5.1
Points below expected
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Points6.0xPts11.1
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 6; xPts 11.1. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 54.6
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 6.0
- xPts
- 11.1
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Academico Viseu
Points above expected
+4.8
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast54
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-10 UTC. Points 14; xPts 9.2. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 55.4
- Recency
- 74.1
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 14.0
- xPts
- 9.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Fulham
Points below expected
−5.1
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast63
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 5; xPts 10.1. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 63.8
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 5.0
- xPts
- 10.1
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Cagliari
Points above expected
+4.8
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast63
Cagliari
+4.8
Points above expected
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Points13.0xPts8.2
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Points 13; xPts 8.2. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 60.0
- Recency
- 100.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 13.0
- xPts
- 8.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Udinese
Points below expected
−5.1
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast64
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 4; xPts 9.1. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 63.8
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 4.0
- xPts
- 9.1
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Trabzonspor
Points above expected
+4.6
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast61
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Points 16; xPts 11.4. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 53.1
- Recency
- 100.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 16.0
- xPts
- 11.4
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Bologna
Points below expected
−5.0
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast62
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 5; xPts 10. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 62.5
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 5.0
- xPts
- 10.0
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Brighton
Points above expected
+4.6
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast61
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 16; xPts 11.4. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 57.5
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 16.0
- xPts
- 11.4
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
St. Truiden
Points below expected
−4.9
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast55
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC. Points 8; xPts 12.9. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 56.5
- Recency
- 76.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 8.0
- xPts
- 12.9
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Amed
Points above expected
+4.5
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast59
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 17; xPts 12.5. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 51.9
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 17.0
- xPts
- 12.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Nacional
Points below expected
−4.8
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast55
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-10 → 2026-10-11 UTC. Points 4; xPts 8.8. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 55.4
- Recency
- 76.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 4.0
- xPts
- 8.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
KVC Westerlo
Points above expected
+4.4
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast53
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC. Points 13; xPts 8.6. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 50.8
- Recency
- 76.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 13.0
- xPts
- 8.6
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Villarreal
Points below expected
−4.6
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast59
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 12; xPts 16.6. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 41.8
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 63.6
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 12.0
- xPts
- 16.6
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Paris FC
Points above expected
+4.3
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast60
Paris FC
+4.3
Points above expected
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Points14.0xPts9.7
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 14; xPts 9.7. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 53.8
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 14.0
- xPts
- 9.7
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Nottingham Forest
Points below expected
−4.6
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast61
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 5; xPts 9.6. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 57.5
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 5.0
- xPts
- 9.6
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Besiktas
Points above expected
+4.1
10/10 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast59
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 10/10 current-league matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Points 21; xPts 16.9. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 41.0
- Recency
- 100.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
10/10 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 21.0
- xPts
- 16.9
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Telstar
Points below expected
−4.3
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast58
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 6; xPts 10.3. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 46.1
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 50.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 6.0
- xPts
- 10.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Sevilla
Points above expected
+4.0
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast58
Sevilla
+4.0
Points above expected
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Points14.0xPts10.0
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 14; xPts 10. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 42.9
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 14.0
- xPts
- 10.0
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
RAAL La Louvière
Points below expected
−4.3
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast52
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-10 UTC. Points 4; xPts 8.3. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 49.6
- Recency
- 74.1
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 4.0
- xPts
- 8.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Monaco
Points above expected
+3.8
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast58
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 14; xPts 10.2. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 47.5
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 14.0
- xPts
- 10.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Konyaspor
Points below expected
−4.0
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast57
Konyaspor
−4.0
Points below expected
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Points5.0xPts9.0
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 5; xPts 9. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 46.2
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 5.0
- xPts
- 9.0
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Real Madrid
Points above expected
+3.7
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast57
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 27; xPts 23.3. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 33.6
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 63.6
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 27.0
- xPts
- 23.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
PSV Eindhoven
Points below expected
−3.9
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast56
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 20; xPts 23.9. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 35.5
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 59.1
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 20.0
- xPts
- 23.9
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 9.
Full club analysis →
Club Brugge KV
Points above expected
+3.7
10/10 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast52
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 10/10 current-league matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-13 UTC. Points 24; xPts 20.3. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 37.0
- Recency
- 81.9
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
10/10 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 24.0
- xPts
- 20.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 9.
Full club analysis →
Celta Vigo
Points below expected
−3.8
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast57
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 11; xPts 14.8. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 34.5
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 63.6
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 11.0
- xPts
- 14.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Chelsea
Points above expected
+3.7
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast57
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 13; xPts 9.3. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 46.3
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 13.0
- xPts
- 9.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Marseille
Points below expected
−3.8
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast58
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 9; xPts 12.8. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 40.7
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 9.0
- xPts
- 12.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
SV Elversberg
Points above expected
+3.7
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast57
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 10; xPts 6.3. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 50.5
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 10.0
- xPts
- 6.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →
Napoli
Points below expected
−3.5
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast57
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 10; xPts 13.5. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 37.5
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 10.0
- xPts
- 13.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Hull City
Points above expected
+3.6
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast56
Hull City
+3.6
Points above expected
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Points9.0xPts5.4
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 9; xPts 5.4. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 45.0
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 9.0
- xPts
- 5.4
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Casa Pia
Points below expected
−3.5
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast49
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-10 UTC. Points 4; xPts 7.5. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 40.4
- Recency
- 74.1
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 4.0
- xPts
- 7.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Real Sociedad
Points above expected
+3.5
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast56
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 17; xPts 13.5. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 31.8
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 63.6
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 17.0
- xPts
- 13.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Genoa
Points below expected
−3.5
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast56
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 4; xPts 7.5. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 43.8
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 4.0
- xPts
- 7.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Bayer Leverkusen
Points above expected
+3.5
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast57
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 19; xPts 15.5. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 40.4
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 19.0
- xPts
- 15.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
KV Mechelen
Points below expected
−3.4
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast49
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-11 UTC. Points 6; xPts 9.4. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 39.2
- Recency
- 76.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 6.0
- xPts
- 9.4
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Kasimpasa
Points above expected
+3.5
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast55
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 13; xPts 9.5. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 40.4
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 13.0
- xPts
- 9.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Kortrijk
Points below expected
−3.4
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast48
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-10 UTC. Points 3; xPts 6.4. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 39.2
- Recency
- 74.1
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 3.0
- xPts
- 6.4
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
AC Milan
Points above expected
+3.4
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast57
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 18; xPts 14.6. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 36.4
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 18.0
- xPts
- 14.6
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Parma
Points below expected
−3.3
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast56
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Points 4; xPts 7.3. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 41.3
- Recency
- 100.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 4.0
- xPts
- 7.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Arouca
Points above expected
+3.4
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast49
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC. Points 14; xPts 10.6. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 39.2
- Recency
- 76.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 14.0
- xPts
- 10.6
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
SC Braga
Points below expected
−3.1
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast55
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Points 11; xPts 14.1. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 35.8
- Recency
- 100.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 11.0
- xPts
- 14.1
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Kocaelispor
Points above expected
+3.4
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast55
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 12; xPts 8.6. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 39.2
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 12.0
- xPts
- 8.6
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Lens
Points below expected
−3.0
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast55
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 13; xPts 16. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 32.1
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 13.0
- xPts
- 16.0
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
SC Freiburg
Points above expected
+3.3
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast56
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 13; xPts 9.7. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 45.0
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 13.0
- xPts
- 9.7
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →
Racing Santander
Points below expected
−2.7
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast53
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 8; xPts 10.7. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 28.9
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 8.0
- xPts
- 10.7
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Hamburger SV
Points above expected
+3.2
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast55
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 9; xPts 5.8. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 43.6
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 9.0
- xPts
- 5.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →
Bournemouth
Points below expected
−2.6
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast54
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 12; xPts 14.6. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 27.9
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 12.0
- xPts
- 14.6
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Liverpool
Points above expected
+3.1
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast55
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 18; xPts 14.9. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 33.2
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 18.0
- xPts
- 14.9
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Venezia
Points below expected
−2.6
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast52
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 3; xPts 5.6. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 32.5
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 3.0
- xPts
- 5.6
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
GIL Vicente
Points above expected
+2.9
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast54
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Points 14; xPts 11.1. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 33.5
- Recency
- 100.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 14.0
- xPts
- 11.1
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Espanyol
Points below expected
−2.5
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast52
Espanyol
−2.5
Points below expected
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Points8.0xPts10.5
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 8; xPts 10.5. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 26.8
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 8.0
- xPts
- 10.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Ipswich
Points above expected
+2.9
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast53
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 9; xPts 6.1. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 36.3
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 9.0
- xPts
- 6.1
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Bayern München
Points below expected
−2.5
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast52
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 18; xPts 20.5. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 28.8
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 18.0
- xPts
- 20.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Alanyaspor
Points above expected
+2.8
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast52
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 12; xPts 9.2. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 32.3
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 12.0
- xPts
- 9.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Tottenham
Points below expected
−2.5
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast53
Tottenham
−2.5
Points below expected
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Points6.0xPts8.5
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Points 6; xPts 8.5. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 31.3
- Recency
- 100.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 6.0
- xPts
- 8.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Sporting CP
Points above expected
+2.7
10/10 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast49
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 10/10 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-13 UTC. Points 24; xPts 21.3. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 27.0
- Recency
- 81.9
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
10/10 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 24.0
- xPts
- 21.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 9.
Full club analysis →
Antwerp
Points below expected
−2.3
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast44
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-11 UTC. Points 7; xPts 9.3. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 26.5
- Recency
- 76.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 7.0
- xPts
- 9.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Werder Bremen
Points above expected
+2.7
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast52
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 9; xPts 6.3. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 36.8
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 9.0
- xPts
- 6.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →
OH Leuven
Points below expected
−2.3
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast44
OH Leuven
−2.3
Points below expected
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Points5.0xPts7.3
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-11 UTC. Points 5; xPts 7.3. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 26.5
- Recency
- 76.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 5.0
- xPts
- 7.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
AZ Alkmaar
Points above expected
+2.4
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast52
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 23; xPts 20.6. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 21.8
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 59.1
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
11/11 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 23.0
- xPts
- 20.6
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 9.
Full club analysis →
Levante
Points below expected
−2.2
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast50
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-16 UTC. Points 7; xPts 9.2. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 25.4
- Recency
- 90.5
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 50.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 7.0
- xPts
- 9.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Rennes
Points above expected
+2.3
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast53
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 17; xPts 14.7. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 24.6
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 17.0
- xPts
- 14.7
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Newcastle
Points below expected
−2.1
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast50
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 8; xPts 10.1. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 26.3
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 8.0
- xPts
- 10.1
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Benfica
Points above expected
+2.2
10/10 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast49
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 10/10 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Points 25; xPts 22.8. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 22.0
- Recency
- 87.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
10/10 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 25.0
- xPts
- 22.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 9.
Full club analysis →
Elche
Points below expected
−2.0
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast50
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-17 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 7; xPts 9. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 21.4
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 7.0
- xPts
- 9.0
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Çorum FK
Points above expected
+2.2
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast49
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-14 → 2026-10-16 UTC. Points 13; xPts 10.8. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 25.4
- Recency
- 90.5
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 13.0
- xPts
- 10.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Istanbul Basaksehir
Points below expected
−1.9
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast49
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 11; xPts 12.9. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 21.9
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 11.0
- xPts
- 12.9
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →
Torino
Points above expected
+1.9
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast50
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Points 10; xPts 8.1. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 23.8
- Recency
- 100.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 10.0
- xPts
- 8.1
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Fenerbahce
Points below expected
−1.8
10/10 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast50
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 10/10 current-league matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 17; xPts 18.8. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 18.0
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
10/10 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 17.0
- xPts
- 18.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Groningen
Points above expected
+1.8
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast49
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 14; xPts 12.2. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 19.3
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 50.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 14.0
- xPts
- 12.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 8.
Full club analysis →
Goztepe
Points below expected
−1.8
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast48
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-17 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 9; xPts 10.8. Saved pre: 1; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 20.8
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 9.0
- xPts
- 10.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 1; reconstructed: 7.
Full club analysis →About these insights
Read the signal. Keep the context.
Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.
Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.
Check the window
Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.
Read the chart
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.
Separate the sources
xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.
Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.
Explore methodology →