1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 13 pts · 22 played
DLLLL
3–3Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 42 pts · 22 played
DWWLW
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 24). VfB Stuttgart usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. 1. FC Heidenheim had 7.2 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 2.9 and had to travel 72 km.
Away travel72 kmRest days7.2 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
1. FC Heidenheim17%
Draw20%
VfB Stuttgart64%
1. FC Heidenheim17%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart60%
1. FC Heidenheim16%
Draw20%
VfB Stuttgart64%
1. FC Heidenheim12%
Draw17%
VfB Stuttgart71%
1. FC Heidenheim17%
Draw21%
VfB Stuttgart61%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 92
Team strength
1. FC HeidenheimVfB Stuttgart
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
68
48
AttackIn forecast
70
39
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC HeidenheimVfB Stuttgart
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
2.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
59%
Scored inContext
91%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
11.64
ShotsContext
14.82
3.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.59
29%
On target shareContext
38%
7.76
Shots in the boxContext
9.55
65%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
2.18
OffsidesContext
2.47
15.14
Shots allowedContext
12.05
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.09
3.86
BlocksContext
3.45
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.15
60%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
356
PassesContext
509
277
Accurate passesContext
431
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.91
FoulsContext
10.09
10.14
Fouls sufferedContext
11.82
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
1.95
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
2.01
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.60
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
60%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.60
ShotsContext
15.70
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
24%
On target shareContext
40%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
66%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.43
14.90
Shots allowedContext
12.50
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.00
BlocksContext
3.70
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
59%
Save rateContext
68%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
361
PassesContext
502
280
Accurate passesContext
423
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.99
9.70
FoulsContext
9.10
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km129 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel72 km2,404 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 13 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 72 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 129 km | 2,404 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
4T. Siersleben
5B. Gimber
6P. Mainka
26Hennes Behrens
16J. Niehues
3J. Schöppner
22A. Ibrahimović
10C. Conteh
8E. Dinkçi
18M. Pieringer
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
3R. Hendriks
22L. Assignon
30Chema Andrés
6A. Stiller
10C. Führich
11B. El Khannouss
8Tiago Tomás
9E. Demirović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
0.82points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-6
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 2.18
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.45points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-5
- Scored
- 2.18
- Conceded
- 1.55
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1. FC Heidenheim | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | W 3–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–4 H | L 0–5 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Union Berlin | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–3 H | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–6 A | W 4–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 2–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 13 of 63 · 0.62 per game | 39 of 63 · 1.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 1. FC Heidenheim wins1 draws2 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.40
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 5 Oct 2025VfB Stuttgart1–01. FC Heidenheim
- 25 Apr 2025VfB Stuttgart0–11. FC Heidenheim
- 15 Dec 20241. FC Heidenheim1–3VfB Stuttgart
- 31 Mar 2024VfB Stuttgart3–31. FC Heidenheim
- 5 Nov 20231. FC Heidenheim2–0VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.18 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 3.05 | 3.18 | 3.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 73% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 59% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 9% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.24 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.34 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 15/20 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 9/20 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.68 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.82 | |
| Match total | 3.68 | 3.82 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 11/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 8/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.38 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 12.13 | 8.40 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.10 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 92 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 3.80
Red cards0.18league 0.17
Cards 5+47%league 39%
Fouls23.3league 20.7
Penalties0.18league 0.36
Home wins34%league 46%
1. FC Heidenheim3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D2 May 25H · VfL Bochum0–00
- L6 Oct 24H · RB Leipzig0–12
- W30 Sep 23H · Union Berlin1–01
VfB Stuttgart6 with this referee
Record4-0-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W19 Sep 25H · FC St. Pauli2–00
- W15 Jan 25H · RB Leipzig2–12
- W16 Mar 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–00
- L11 Feb 23A · SC Freiburg1–23
- L5 Feb 22H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim22 games · scored 19 · conceded 48
1
2
0-15
2
7
16-30
3
12
31-45
5
9
46-60
3
9
61-75
5
9
76-90
VfB Stuttgart22 games · scored 41 · conceded 29
2
4
0-15
6
3
16-30
9
6
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
14
12
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 9 · conceded 21
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
5
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 23 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
