1. FC Heidenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 13 pts · 22 played
DLLLL
3–3Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 42 pts · 22 played
DWWLW
1. FC Heidenheim16.5%fair odds 6.05
Draw19.7%fair odds 5.07
VfB Stuttgart63.7%fair odds 1.57
Expected goals1.11 – 2.31total 3.43
Likeliest score1–29.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1. FC Heidenheim ↓ · VfB Stuttgart → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1. FC Heidenheim goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–29.7%10.33
- 1–18.8%11.35
- 0–28.7%11.51
- 1–37.5%13.40
- 0–17.1%14.14
- 0–36.7%14.93
- 2–25.4%18.55
- 2–14.7%21.45
- 1–44.3%23.17
- 2–34.2%24.05
Winning margin
1.8%
1. FC Heidenheim by 3+
fair 55.51
4.4%
1. FC Heidenheim by 2
fair 22.67
10.3%
1. FC Heidenheim by 1
fair 9.68
19.7%
Draw
fair 5.07
21.9%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.56
19.0%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 5.26
22.8%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 4.39
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
20%2
22%3
19%4
26%5+
1. FC Heidenheim goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
VfB Stuttgart goals
10%0
23%1
26%2
20%3
20%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim win | 16.5% | 17.5% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 19.7% | 21.3% | -1.6 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 63.7% | 61.2% | +2.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 66.5% | 61.2% | +5.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.0% | 57.7% | +3.3 pp |
| Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.11 | 1.05 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 2.31 | 2.11 | +0.20 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1. FC Heidenheim win16.5%6.05
- Draw19.7%5.07
- VfB Stuttgart win63.7%1.57
- Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw36.3%2.76
- Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or VfB Stuttgart80.3%1.25
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw83.5%1.20
- Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim20.6%4.85
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart79.4%1.26
Goals
- Over 0.596.3%1.04
- Over 1.586.1%1.16
- Over 2.566.5%1.50
- Over 3.544.8%2.23
- Over 4.526.1%3.83
- Under 1.513.9%7.18
- Under 2.533.5%2.99
- Under 3.555.2%1.81
Both teams to score
- Yes61.0%1.64
- No39.0%2.56
- Yes and over 2.552.2%1.92
- 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes10.3%9.67
- Draw and yes16.0%6.24
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes34.6%2.89
Team goals
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.567.2%1.49
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.530.6%3.27
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.510.2%9.76
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.590.1%1.11
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.567.2%1.49
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.540.7%2.45
- 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet9.9%10.11
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet32.8%3.05
- 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil6.2%16.12
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil29.1%3.43
Handicap
- 1. FC Heidenheim −1.56.2%16.10
- 1. FC Heidenheim −2.51.8%55.51
- VfB Stuttgart +1.593.8%1.07
- VfB Stuttgart +2.598.2%1.02
- VfB Stuttgart −1.541.8%2.39
- 1. FC Heidenheim +1.558.2%1.72
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored205
Favourite won56.6%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.558
Over 2.5 called right63.4%
BTTS called right57.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 28 | 38.2% | 39.3% |
| 40–50% | 63 | 45.1% | 44.4% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 55.3% | 59.6% |
| 60–70% | 31 | 64.7% | 74.2% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 74.3% | 76.5% |
| 80%+ | 9 | 85.8% | 77.8% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 185 of 205 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5512 | 0.5456 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.7% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 57.8% | 58.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 185 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 205 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.