Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor

Süper Lig Gameweek 9 Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 GAIN Park Stadium, Alanya

Alanyaspor 9th · 12 pts · 8 played WDWDL

VS— Compare

Kocaelispor 8th · 12 pts · 8 played WLWLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Alanyaspor are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Kocaelispor. Alanyaspor have 6 days of rest, Kocaelispor 5.2 and have to travel 521 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel521 kmRest days6 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Alanyaspor42%

Draw27%

Kocaelispor32%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.24

Alanyaspor45%

Draw27%

Kocaelispor28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

Alanyaspor42%

Draw27%

Kocaelispor32%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.24

Alanyaspor34%

Draw27%

Kocaelispor38%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.39

Alanyaspor42%

Draw27%

Kocaelispor31%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.24

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 4 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alanya)

21°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0%
Wind 8 km/h
Humidity 61%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Alanyaspor

Kocaelispor

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

24 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

18 AttackIn forecast 16

24 DefenceIn forecast 32

49 Form indexContext 33

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alanyaspor

Attack+1%

Defense risk−14%

Kocaelispor

Attack+9%

Defense risk−13%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Alanyaspor

Kocaelispor

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

75% Scored inContext 75%

38% Clean sheetsContext 38%

10.88 ShotsContext 11.25

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14

30% On target shareContext 32%

6.75 Shots in the boxContext 6.25

61% Box shareContext 55%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.86

15.00 Shots allowedContext 15.50

4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

4.38 BlocksContext 2.88

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43

80% Save rateContext 80%

42% PossessionIn forecast 48%

334 PassesContext 401

270 Accurate passesContext 323

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.13 FoulsContext 12.00

13.38 Fouls sufferedContext 13.88

1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 0.76

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.00 ShotsContext 10.40

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

35% On target shareContext 29%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.80

58% Box shareContext 56%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.20 Shots allowedContext 14.60

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.10 BlocksContext 2.60

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

78% Save rateContext 80%

44% PossessionIn forecast 51%

354 PassesContext 415

291 Accurate passesContext 339

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.79

12.30 FoulsContext 12.80

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.40

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alanyaspor WDWDL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,126 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected

L17 OctA · Fenerbahce0–30.5 xPts
D10 OctH · Erzurumspor FK0–01.6 xPts
W19 SepA · Çorum FK2–11.0 xPts
D12 SepH · Goztepe2–21.6 xPts
W7 SepA · Rizespor1–01.0 xPts

Kocaelispor WLWLL

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel521 km394 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 33 · 6 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

L18 OctH · Goztepe1–21.4 xPts
L11 OctA · Besiktas1–20.6 xPts
W19 SepH · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–01.6 xPts
L13 SepA · Galatasaray0–10.5 xPts
W6 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alanyaspor	Kocaelispor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Süper Lig 2026-2027, 17 Oct	5.2Süper Lig 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	521 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,126 km	394 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	10	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alanyaspor Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Fenerbahce (A) 0–3, 17 Oct

48Paulo Victor(G)

20F. Aksoy 5F. Aliti 3Nuno Lima

11Ruan 55B. Gezek 42G. Makouta 94F. Hadërgjonaj

7Ibrahim Kaya 17A. Usluoğlu 16U. Hwang

Kocaelispor Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Goztepe (H) 1–2, 18 Oct

83S. Öztaşdelen(G)

3Muharrem Cinan 5E. Ortakaya 2A. Dijksteel 22U. Yıldız

10B. Kutlu 14Show 20Mahamadou Susoho

26Metehan Altunbaş 7Daniel Agyei 11Gonçalo Sousa

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alanyaspor No reported absences

Kocaelispor No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Alanyaspor+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Kocaelispor+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Alanyaspor · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.67

Kocaelispor · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Alanyaspor	Kocaelispor
Goztepe	D 2–2 H	L 1–2 H
Besiktas	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Points	5 of 9 · 1.67 per game	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Alanyaspor wins0 draws1 Kocaelispor wins

Goals per game2.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored0% Clean sheets50% · 50%

18 Mar 2026Alanyaspor5–0Kocaelispor
25 Oct 2025Kocaelispor2–0Alanyaspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alanyaspor	Kocaelispor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.13
Conceded per game	1.13	1.00
Match goals	2.13	2.13	2.70
Over 1.5	63%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	38%	51%
Over 3.5	13%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	38%	55%
Clean sheets	38%	38%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	8	8

	Alanyaspor	Kocaelispor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.90
Conceded per game	1.20	1.00
Match goals	2.40	1.90	2.70
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	51%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alanyaspor	Kocaelispor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.71	3.38
Corners conceded	4.14	5.25
Match total	8.85	8.63	9.12
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.38	1.50
Opponent cards	2.13	1.75
Match total	3.51	3.25	4.04
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	13% 1/8

	Alanyaspor	Kocaelispor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.71	3.20
Corners conceded	4.14	4.70
Match total	8.85	7.90	9.12
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.90
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	3.30	3.90	4.04
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.