Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce

Süper Lig Gameweek 9 Mon, Oct 26 · 18:30 Rams Global Stadium, İstanbul

Galatasaray 1st · 19 pts · 8 played WWLWW

VS— Compare

Fenerbahce 3rd · 16 pts · 8 played LDWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fenerbahce. Galatasaray have 5.1 days of rest, Fenerbahce 6.1 and have to travel 0 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel0 kmRest days5.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 3

Galatasaray41%

Draw23%

Fenerbahce36%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.75

Galatasaray44%

Draw27%

Fenerbahce29%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19

Galatasaray41%

Draw23%

Fenerbahce36%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.75

Galatasaray33%

Draw22%

Fenerbahce44%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.97

Galatasaray41%

Draw23%

Fenerbahce36%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.68

Over 2.5 70% Both score 71% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 37 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

15°CFog

Precipitation 17%
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 96%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Galatasaray

Fenerbahce

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

57 AttackIn forecast 75

55 DefenceIn forecast 53

59 Form indexContext 65

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Galatasaray

Attack−19%

Defense risk+63%

Fenerbahce

Attack−19%

Defense risk+39%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Galatasaray

Fenerbahce

2.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.75

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75

2.29 xGVia Att/Def 2.72

0.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

88% Scored inContext 88%

38% Clean sheetsContext 63%

22.13 ShotsContext 18.57

7.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.71

33% On target shareContext 42%

15.13 Shots in the boxContext 13.43

69% Box shareContext 70%

10% ConversionContext 17%

2.83 OffsidesContext 2.43

10.75 Shots allowedContext 13.43

3.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

3.71 BlocksContext 3.29

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

78% Save rateContext 79%

60% PossessionIn forecast 53%

475 PassesContext 474

411 Accurate passesContext 414

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.02 Team ratingContext 7.13

11.75 FoulsContext 13.00

11.63 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

1.63 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.25 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.97 xGVia Att/Def 2.57

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

90% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

19.20 ShotsContext 16.11

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.56

34% On target shareContext 41%

13.20 Shots in the boxContext 11.33

69% Box shareContext 69%

10% ConversionContext 17%

3.43 OffsidesContext 2.33

11.50 Shots allowedContext 14.33

4.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.25

3.56 BlocksContext 3.56

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.63

64% Save rateContext 74%

57% PossessionIn forecast 49%

460 PassesContext 429

397 Accurate passesContext 369

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.00

11.60 FoulsContext 12.89

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Galatasaray WLWLW

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km5,202 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected

W17 OctA · Genclerbirligi1–02.2 xPts
L13 OctH · Barcelona1–40.7 xPts
W9 OctH · Kasimpasa3–12.3 xPts
L19 SepA · Trabzonspor0–41.9 xPts
W13 SepH · Kocaelispor1–02.4 xPts

Fenerbahce DWWLW

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km5,291 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

W17 OctH · Alanyaspor3–02.3 xPts
L14 OctA · Aston Villa0–60.8 xPts
W10 OctA · Rizespor3–01.9 xPts
W20 SepH · Eyüpspor8–02.5 xPts
D14 SepA · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Galatasaray	Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct	6.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	5,202 km	5,291 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Galatasaray Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Genclerbirligi (A) 1–0, 17 Oct

1U. Çakır(G)

17E. Elmalı 42A. Bardakcı 6D. Sánchez 7R. Sallai

8Gabriel Sara 99M. Lemina

53B. Yılmaz 83A. Batrakov 10L. Sané

45V. Osimhen

Fenerbahce Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alanyaspor (H) 3–0, 17 Oct

31Ederson(G)

22M. Mercan 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

6M. Guendouzi 91N. Kanté

70O. Aydın 11M. Greenwood 17İ. Kahveci

9R. Lukaku

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Galatasaray No reported absences

Fenerbahce No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Galatasaray+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Fenerbahce+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Galatasaray · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 1.25

Fenerbahce · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Galatasaray	Fenerbahce
Genclerbirligi	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 A
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Galatasaray wins3 draws1 Fenerbahce wins

Goals per game1.17 – 0.50 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets50% · 50%

26 Apr 2026Galatasaray3–0Fenerbahce
1 Dec 2025Fenerbahce1–1Galatasaray
24 Feb 2025Galatasaray0–0Fenerbahce
21 Sep 2024Fenerbahce1–3Galatasaray
19 May 2024Galatasaray0–1Fenerbahce
24 Dec 2023Fenerbahce0–0Galatasaray

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Galatasaray	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	2.13	2.75
Conceded per game	1.38	0.75
Match goals	3.50	3.50	3.64
Over 1.5	75%	88%
Over 2.5	75%	75%	70%
Over 3.5	75%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	38%	71%
Clean sheets	38%	63%
Failed to score	13%	13%
Games	8	8

	Galatasaray	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	2.40
Conceded per game	1.80	1.20
Match goals	3.70	3.60	3.64
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	70%
Over 3.5	80%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	71%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Galatasaray	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	7.38	6.29
Corners conceded	3.13	3.14
Match total	10.51	9.43	9.12
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.88	1.38
Opponent cards	2.00	1.38
Match total	3.88	2.76	4.04
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	25% 2/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	25% 2/8

	Galatasaray	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	6.40	5.22
Corners conceded	3.20	4.22
Match total	9.60	9.44	9.12
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.90
Opponent cards	1.80	1.40
Match total	3.80	3.30	4.04
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.