Samsunspor vs Amed – 24 Oct 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 24 · 17:00 Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun

Samsunspor 17th · 4 pts · 8 played LLLLL

VS— Compare

Amed 2nd · 17 pts · 8 played DWWDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Amed are slight favourites.

Amed are the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Amed. Samsunspor have 6.2 days of rest, Amed 7.1 and have to travel 501 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel501 kmRest days6.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Samsunspor27%

Draw24%

Amed49%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.77

Samsunspor36%

Draw27%

Amed37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.34

Samsunspor27%

Draw24%

Amed49%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.77

Samsunspor20%

Draw23%

Amed57%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.99

Samsunspor26%

Draw25%

Amed49%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.76

Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 4 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Samsun)

17°COvercast

Precipitation 12%
Wind 2 km/h
Humidity 90%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Samsunspor

Amed

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

23 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

15 AttackIn forecast 38

18 DefenceIn forecast 46

4 Form indexContext 66

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Samsunspor

Attack−13%

Defense risk+11%

Amed

Attack+21%

Defense risk−14%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Samsunspor

Amed

0.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.25

2.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.84

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.75

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.41

50% Scored inContext 88%

13% Clean sheetsContext 38%

12.38 ShotsContext 14.25

3.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

24% On target shareContext 33%

7.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

55% Box shareContext 53%

7% ConversionContext 16%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.83

15.50 Shots allowedContext 9.25

6.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.88 BlocksContext 3.00

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

63% Save rateContext 68%

55% PossessionIn forecast 47%

473 PassesContext 386

399 Accurate passesContext 317

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.93

12.75 FoulsContext 14.00

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.25

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.25

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.84

1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.75

+0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.41

50% Scored inContext 88%

20% Clean sheetsContext 38%

12.00 ShotsContext 14.25

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

28% On target shareContext 33%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

56% Box shareContext 53%

8% ConversionContext 16%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.83

16.50 Shots allowedContext 9.25

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

4.00 BlocksContext 3.00

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

65% Save rateContext 68%

56% PossessionIn forecast 47%

461 PassesContext 386

385 Accurate passesContext 317

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.93

12.50 FoulsContext 14.00

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.25

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 8 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Samsunspor LLLLL

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 4 · 0 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -6.4 vs expected

L18 OctA · Kasimpasa1–41.1 xPts
L10 OctH · Trabzonspor0–31.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Erzurumspor FK0–11.1 xPts
L12 SepH · Çorum FK1–51.7 xPts
L6 SepA · Kocaelispor0–11.3 xPts

Amed DWWDW

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel501 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 66 · 11 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected

W17 OctH · Konyaspor1–02.0 xPts
D10 OctA · Genclerbirligi2–21.8 xPts
W20 SepH · Besiktas3–21.4 xPts
W13 SepH · Istanbul Basaksehir5–01.5 xPts
D6 SepA · Kasimpasa2–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Samsunspor	Amed
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Süper Lig 2026-2027, 18 Oct	7.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	501 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,238 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Samsunspor Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Kasimpasa (A) 1–4, 18 Oct

1O. Kocuk(G)

17L. Tómasson 34G. Guarino 22Y. Çift 2J. Mendes

4Elliot Watt 19O. Øhlenschlæger

11E. Kılınç 20Y. Kayan 10T. Coulibaly

18M. Bayo

Amed Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Konyaspor (H) 1–0, 17 Oct

40A. Lafont(G)

17C. Meraş 4D. Bates 21Mehmet Yeşil 7E. Krasniqi

8F. Soyalp 22R. Raveloson

10S. Ballet 91D. Sabi'a 93R. Lutin

99G. Orban

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Samsunspor No reported absences

Amed No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Samsunspor+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Amed+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Samsunspor · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.25

Amed · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Samsunspor	Amed
Kasimpasa	L 1–4 A	D 2–2 A
Trabzonspor	L 0–3 H	W 2–1 H
Erzurumspor FK	L 0–1 A	W 3–0 H
Kocaelispor	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Points	0 of 12 · 0.00 per game	7 of 12 · 1.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Samsunspor	Amed	Forecast
Scored per game	0.88	2.25
Conceded per game	2.38	1.13
Match goals	3.25	3.38	3.03
Over 1.5	75%	88%
Over 2.5	50%	75%	58%
Over 3.5	38%	50%
Both teams scored	38%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	13%	38%
Failed to score	50%	13%
Games	8	8

	Samsunspor	Amed	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.25
Conceded per game	2.20	1.13
Match goals	3.20	3.38	3.03
Over 1.5	80%	88%
Over 2.5	60%	75%	58%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	38%
Failed to score	50%	13%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Samsunspor	Amed	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.25
Corners conceded	5.63	3.75
Match total	9.63	8.00	9.12
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	1.00	3.13
Opponent cards	2.00	2.63
Match total	3.00	5.76	4.04
Over 3.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	50% 4/8

	Samsunspor	Amed	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	4.25
Corners conceded	5.22	3.75
Match total	9.33	8.00	9.12
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	1.30	3.13
Opponent cards	2.20	2.63
Match total	3.50	5.76	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 4/8

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.