Besiktas vs Istanbul Basaksehir

Süper Lig Gameweek 9 Mon, Oct 26 · 16:00 Tüpraş Stadyumu, İstanbul

Besiktas 5th · 15 pts · 8 played WWLWL

VS— Compare

Istanbul Basaksehir 10th · 11 pts · 8 played LLWDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Besiktas are clear favourites.

Besiktas are the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Besiktas. Besiktas have 3.9 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 8 and have to travel 0 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel0 kmRest days3.9 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1

Besiktas62%

Draw20%

Istanbul Basaksehir18%

Expected goals 2.33 – 1.22

Besiktas52%

Draw25%

Istanbul Basaksehir23%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.05

Besiktas62%

Draw20%

Istanbul Basaksehir18%

Expected goals 2.33 – 1.22

Besiktas53%

Draw22%

Istanbul Basaksehir25%

Expected goals 2.08 – 1.37

Besiktas60%

Draw21%

Istanbul Basaksehir19%

Expected goals 2.22 – 1.18

Over 2.5 69% Both score 64% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 37 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

17°COvercast

Precipitation 16%
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 94%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Besiktas

Istanbul Basaksehir

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 36

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 36

60 AttackIn forecast 32

48 DefenceIn forecast 35

62 Form indexContext 33

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Besiktas

Attack−2%

Defense risk+6%

Istanbul Basaksehir

Attack−13%

Defense risk+43%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Besiktas

Istanbul Basaksehir

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.46

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

75% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 38%

16.57 ShotsContext 11.88

6.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

37% On target shareContext 34%

9.29 Shots in the boxContext 6.88

56% Box shareContext 54%

11% ConversionContext 13%

3.43 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.57 Shots allowedContext 12.00

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

3.40 BlocksContext 3.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

68% Save rateContext 70%

61% PossessionIn forecast 52%

488 PassesContext 451

422 Accurate passesContext 383

87% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.75

13.71 FoulsContext 13.88

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.38

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.38

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

2.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.75

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

70% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.75 ShotsContext 12.30

6.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

37% On target shareContext 34%

10.88 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

64% Box shareContext 59%

14% ConversionContext 14%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.80

11.25 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

3.38 BlocksContext 3.30

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

64% Save rateContext 72%

59% PossessionIn forecast 50%

481 PassesContext 431

410 Accurate passesContext 364

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.79

11.44 FoulsContext 14.20

15.22 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Besiktas WLWWL

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km5,434 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 62 · 9 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected

L19 OctA · Trabzonspor0–21.5 xPts
W15 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21.3 xPts
W11 OctH · Kocaelispor2–12.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Amed2–31.4 xPts
W17 SepH · Marseille4–11.6 xPts

Istanbul Basaksehir LLWDW

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 33 · 7 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected

W18 OctH · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–12.0 xPts
D11 OctA · Konyaspor0–01.4 xPts
W19 SepH · Genclerbirligi4–01.8 xPts
L13 SepA · Amed0–51.2 xPts
L4 SepH · Galatasaray2–31.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Besiktas	Istanbul Basaksehir
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct	8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	5,434 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Besiktas Last XI · not confirmed

4-1-4-1 · vs Trabzonspor (A) 0–2, 19 Oct

1A. Nübel(G)

33R. Yılmaz 53E. Topçu 12E. Agbadou 62A. Murillo

6S. Özcan

19L. Trossard 21F. Miretti 15Junior Olaitan 18V. Černý

28D. Vlahović

Istanbul Basaksehir Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Gazişehir Gaziantep (H) 2–1, 18 Oct

16M. Şengezer(G)

38S. Kharebashvili 27O. Ba 23E. Bayram 33M. Karbownik

18J. Kałuziński 8O. Kemen

77I. Brnić 14E. Shomurodov 70A. Skov Olsen

17U. Bozok

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Besiktas No reported absences

Istanbul Basaksehir No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Besiktas+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Istanbul Basaksehir+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Besiktas · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.75

Istanbul Basaksehir · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Besiktas	Istanbul Basaksehir
Trabzonspor	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
Kocaelispor	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 H
Amed	L 2–3 A	L 0–5 A
Points	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Besiktas wins2 draws1 Istanbul Basaksehir wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 33%

15 Feb 2026Istanbul Basaksehir2–3Besiktas
13 Sep 2025Besiktas2–1Istanbul Basaksehir
12 Apr 2025Besiktas0–2Istanbul Basaksehir
10 Nov 2024Istanbul Basaksehir0–0Besiktas
4 Apr 2024Istanbul Basaksehir1–1Besiktas
12 Nov 2023Besiktas1–0Istanbul Basaksehir

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Besiktas	Istanbul Basaksehir	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.50
Conceded per game	1.25	1.50
Match goals	3.25	3.00	3.56
Over 1.5	75%	88%
Over 2.5	63%	63%	69%
Over 3.5	25%	38%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	64%
Clean sheets	25%	38%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	8	8

	Besiktas	Istanbul Basaksehir	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.70
Conceded per game	1.40	1.30
Match goals	3.60	3.00	3.56
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	69%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	64%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Besiktas	Istanbul Basaksehir	League
Corners
Corners won	6.71	4.25
Corners conceded	4.14	3.88
Match total	10.85	8.13	9.12
Over 8.5	86% 6/7	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	71% 5/7	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.50
Opponent cards	2.88	1.88
Match total	5.38	4.38	4.04
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	38% 3/8

	Besiktas	Istanbul Basaksehir	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	3.90
Corners conceded	4.44	4.20
Match total	10.22	8.10	9.12
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.40
Opponent cards	2.60	1.90
Match total	4.80	4.30	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.