Gazişehir Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor FK

Süper Lig Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep

Gazişehir Gaziantep 14th · 8 pts · 8 played WDLLL

VS— Compare

Erzurumspor FK 11th · 11 pts · 8 played WLWDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

Erzurumspor FK are the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 16). Gazişehir Gaziantep have 5.9 days of rest, Erzurumspor FK 7.1 and have to travel 464 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel464 kmRest days5.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Gazişehir Gaziantep35%

Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK37%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.35

Gazişehir Gaziantep35%

Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK38%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.37

Gazişehir Gaziantep35%

Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK37%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.35

Gazişehir Gaziantep29%

Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.52

Gazişehir Gaziantep35%

Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.37

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 4 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Gaziantep)

19°COvercast

Precipitation 4%
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 55%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Erzurumspor FK

16 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

15 AttackIn forecast 17

18 DefenceIn forecast 38

20 Form indexContext 56

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Attack−5%

Defense risk−15%

Erzurumspor FK

Attack+20%

Defense risk−17%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Erzurumspor FK

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 0.82

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

63% Scored inContext 50%

25% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.86 ShotsContext 9.43

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29

28% On target shareContext 35%

7.57 Shots in the boxContext 6.29

59% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 8%

2.71 OffsidesContext 1.50

13.29 Shots allowedContext 11.29

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

3.57 BlocksContext 2.20

2.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

57% Save rateContext 75%

52% PossessionIn forecast 46%

431 PassesContext 409

358 Accurate passesContext 341

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.67

11.14 FoulsContext 11.71

17.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.86

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

0.99 xGVia Att/Def 0.82

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

70% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.56 ShotsContext 9.43

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29

28% On target shareContext 35%

7.67 Shots in the boxContext 6.29

61% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 8%

2.44 OffsidesContext 1.50

13.44 Shots allowedContext 11.29

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

3.33 BlocksContext 2.20

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

61% Save rateContext 75%

53% PossessionIn forecast 46%

425 PassesContext 409

352 Accurate passesContext 341

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.67

11.00 FoulsContext 11.71

17.33 Fouls sufferedContext 9.86

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 8 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Gazişehir Gaziantep WDLLL

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,700 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 20 · 4 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L18 OctA · Istanbul Basaksehir1–20.8 xPts
L11 OctH · Çorum FK0–31.4 xPts
L19 SepA · Kocaelispor0–21.1 xPts
D14 SepH · Fenerbahce0–00.8 xPts
W7 SepA · Goztepe4–21.0 xPts

Erzurumspor FK WLWDW

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel464 km1,784 km in 14d

Schedule load11%Low

Form 56 · 10 pts vs 9.3 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected

W17 OctH · Eyüpspor2–02.2 xPts
D10 OctA · Alanyaspor0–01.1 xPts
W20 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.6 xPts
L11 SepA · Besiktas0–30.7 xPts
W5 SepH · Konyaspor1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Erzurumspor FK
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 18 Oct	7.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	464 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,700 km	1,784 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Gazişehir Gaziantep Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Istanbul Basaksehir (A) 1–2, 18 Oct

25K. Tobiasz(G)

21L. Sylla 14L. Abena 4A. Kızıldağ 2Luis Pérez

3D. Camara 61O. Özçiçek 8V. Gidado 18D. Sorescu

10K. Kozłowski 9T. Stewart

Erzurumspor FK Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Eyüpspor (H) 2–0, 17 Oct

1M. Taşkıran(G)

15G. Giorbelidze 18N. Mujakić 22M. Yumlu 4A. Gerxhaliu 53O. Ovacıklı

65M. Rodríguez 42E. Owusu 6B. Baiye

20Miguel Cardoso 10E. Tozlu

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Gazişehir Gaziantep No reported absences

Erzurumspor FK No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Erzurumspor FK+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home 0.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.50

Erzurumspor FK · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.25
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Erzurumspor FK
Eyüpspor	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 H
Alanyaspor	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 A
Points	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Erzurumspor FK	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.63
Conceded per game	1.50	1.38
Match goals	2.50	2.00	2.66
Over 1.5	75%	63%
Over 2.5	50%	38%	50%
Over 3.5	13%	13%
Both teams scored	50%	13%	55%
Clean sheets	25%	50%
Failed to score	38%	50%
Games	8	8

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Erzurumspor FK	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.63
Conceded per game	1.60	1.38
Match goals	2.60	2.00	2.66
Over 1.5	80%	63%
Over 2.5	60%	38%	50%
Over 3.5	10%	13%
Both teams scored	60%	13%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Erzurumspor FK	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	3.43
Corners conceded	4.40	3.14
Match total	8.00	6.57	9.12
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	0% 0/7
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	0% 0/7
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	2.38	1.38
Opponent cards	2.50	2.13
Match total	4.88	3.51	4.04
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	50% 4/8

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Erzurumspor FK	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	3.43
Corners conceded	4.71	3.14
Match total	9.00	6.57	9.12
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	0% 0/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	0% 0/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.38
Opponent cards	2.40	2.13
Match total	4.70	3.51	4.04
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 4/8

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.