Arsenal vs Brentford – 3 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 14 Wed, Dec 3 · 19:30 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 1st · 30 pts · 13 played WWDWD

2–0Full time

Brentford 12th · 19 pts · 13 played WLWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 72). Absences weigh more on Arsenal. Arsenal had 3.1 days of rest, Brentford 4.2 and had to travel 13 km.

Away travel13 kmRest days3.1 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Arsenal71%

Draw18%

Brentford11%

Expected goals 2.41 – 0.86

Arsenal70%

Draw19%

Brentford11%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.80

Arsenal72%

Draw17%

Brentford11%

Expected goals 2.43 – 0.84

Arsenal64%

Draw21%

Brentford15%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.96

Arsenal69%

Draw19%

Brentford12%

Expected goals 2.23 – 0.81

Over 2.5 64% Both score 53% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeTony Harrington

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 77

Team strength

Arsenal

Brentford

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

86 AttackIn forecast 73

95 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Brentford

1.92 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.62

0.54 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.54

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

0.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

92% Scored inContext 85%

54% Clean sheetsContext 15%

14.38 ShotsContext 10.85

4.92 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.38

34% On target shareContext 40%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.73

76% Box shareContext 72%

13% ConversionContext 15%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.00

7.31 Shots allowedContext 11.85

2.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.54

3.20 BlocksContext 4.00

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.42

80% Save rateContext 64%

59% PossessionIn forecast 43%

493 PassesContext 354

421 Accurate passesContext 276

85% Pass accuracyContext 78%

7.08 Team ratingContext 6.79

10.69 FoulsContext 11.92

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.92

1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.92

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

0.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

100% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.50 ShotsContext 11.50

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

43% On target shareContext 42%

11.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

79% Box shareContext 71%

16% ConversionContext 16%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

6.80 Shots allowedContext 11.40

2.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

2.50 BlocksContext 3.90

1.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

70% Save rateContext 69%

58% PossessionIn forecast 45%

465 PassesContext 373

396 Accurate passesContext 290

85% Pass accuracyContext 78%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.44 FoulsContext 11.70

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 8.89

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel13 km142 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Nov	4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	142 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.7	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 5P. Hincapié 3Cristhian Mosquera 4B. White

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi 8M. Ødegaard

11Gabriel Martinelli 23Mikel Merino 20C. Madueke

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1C. Kelleher(G)

3R. Henry 4S. van den Berg 5E. Pinnock 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

8M. Jensen 27V. Janelt 18Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 19D. Ouattara

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal-0.8 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Brentford+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 2.67points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 5-1-0
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 0.33

Brentford · Away 0.50points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 11 this season

Opponent	Arsenal	Brentford
Chelsea	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 H
Sunderland	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 A
Burnley	W 2–0 A	W 3–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 A
Fulham	W 1–0 A	L 1–3 A
West Ham	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 A
Newcastle	W 2–1 A	W 3–1 H
Manchester City	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 H	L 1–3 A
Liverpool	L 0–1 A	W 3–2 H
Manchester United	W 1–0 A	W 3–1 H
Points	24 of 33 · 2.18 per game	16 of 33 · 1.45 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Arsenal wins2 draws1 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.63 – 0.88 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 13%

12 Apr 2025Arsenal1–1Brentford
1 Jan 2025Brentford1–3Arsenal
9 Mar 2024Arsenal2–1Brentford
25 Nov 2023Brentford0–1Arsenal
11 Feb 2023Arsenal1–1Brentford
18 Sep 2022Brentford0–3Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.92	1.62
Conceded per game	0.54	1.54
Match goals	2.46	3.15	3.27
Over 1.5	69%	85%
Over 2.5	38%	69%	64%
Over 3.5	23%	54%
Both teams scored	38%	69%	53%
Clean sheets	54%	15%
Failed to score	8%	15%
Games	13	13

	Arsenal	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.80
Conceded per game	0.60	1.50
Match goals	2.50	3.30	3.27
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	64%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	53%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	6.31	5.23
Corners conceded	2.92	4.62
Match total	9.23	9.85	9.93
Over 8.5	46% 6/13	69% 9/13
Over 9.5	46% 6/13	62% 8/13
Over 10.5	46% 6/13	54% 7/13
Cards
Cards	1.38	1.92
Opponent cards	1.62	2.15
Match total	3.00	4.07	3.83
Over 3.5	31% 4/13	62% 8/13
Over 4.5	15% 2/13	54% 7/13

	Arsenal	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	5.70
Corners conceded	2.70	4.30
Match total	8.00	10.00	9.93
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	2.20
Match total	3.60	4.20	3.83
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tony Harrington 77 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 3.71

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+29%league 41%

Fouls21.2league 22.1

Penalties0.25league 0.20

Home wins44%league 50%

Arsenal1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W5 Oct 24H · Southampton3–10

Brentford2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W23 Aug 25H · Aston Villa1–01
W26 Jan 25A · Crystal Palace2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.