Arsenal vs Chelsea – 1 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 28 Sun, Mar 1 · 16:30 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 1st · 61 pts · 28 played WWDDW

2–1Full time

Chelsea 6th · 45 pts · 27 played WWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were slight favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 84). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Chelsea. Arsenal had 7 days of rest, Chelsea 8.1 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1

Arsenal59%

Draw22%

Chelsea19%

Expected goals 2.10 – 1.14

Arsenal60%

Draw23%

Chelsea17%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.93

Arsenal59%

Draw22%

Chelsea20%

Expected goals 2.07 – 1.12

Arsenal51%

Draw24%

Chelsea25%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.27

Arsenal57%

Draw23%

Chelsea19%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.02

Over 2.5 63% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeDarren England

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 115

Team strength

Arsenal

Chelsea

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

86 AttackIn forecast 77

95 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Chelsea

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78

0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.15

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.94

0.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

89% Scored inContext 93%

46% Clean sheetsContext 33%

14.64 ShotsContext 13.63

4.96 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

34% On target shareContext 35%

11.07 Shots in the boxContext 9.46

75% Box shareContext 68%

14% ConversionContext 13%

2.15 OffsidesContext 2.05

7.61 Shots allowedContext 10.96

2.74 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.96

3.00 BlocksContext 3.12

2.05 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.96

73% Save rateContext 72%

58% PossessionIn forecast 59%

481 PassesContext 540

407 Accurate passesContext 469

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.04 Team ratingContext 7.03

10.07 FoulsContext 11.15

10.54 Fouls sufferedContext 12.04

1.36 Yellow cardsContext 2.37

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.15

This league season, per match · 28 and 27 games

2.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.01 xGVia Att/Def 2.64

0.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

+0.59 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

90% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.90 ShotsContext 15.20

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

35% On target shareContext 40%

11.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

76% Box shareContext 67%

17% ConversionContext 16%

2.71 OffsidesContext 1.63

8.00 Shots allowedContext 10.40

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.25 BlocksContext 3.50

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

76% Save rateContext 74%

57% PossessionIn forecast 62%

456 PassesContext 631

380 Accurate passesContext 566

83% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.98 Team ratingContext 7.04

11.00 FoulsContext 9.30

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km363 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Feb	8.1Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	363 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1David Raya(G)

5P. Hincapié 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 12J. Timber

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi

19L. Trossard 10E. Eze 7B. Saka

14V. Gyökeres

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Robert Sánchez(G)

21J. Hato 19M. Sarr 23T. Chalobah 24R. James

8E. Fernández 17Andrey Santos 25M. Caicedo

10C. Palmer 20João Pedro 7Pedro Neto

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal+0.5 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Chelsea-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 2.46points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 10-2-1
Scored: 2.38
Conceded: 0.62

Chelsea · Away 1.69points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 6-4-3
Scored: 1.92
Conceded: 1.15

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Arsenal	Chelsea
Tottenham	W 4–1 AW 4–1 H	W 1–0 A
Wolves	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H	W 3–1 AW 3–0 H
Brentford	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Sunderland	W 3–0 HD 2–2 A	L 1–2 H
Leeds	W 4–0 AW 5–0 H	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A
Manchester United	L 2–3 HW 1–0 A	L 1–2 A
Nottingham Forest	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	W 3–0 A
Liverpool	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 H
Bournemouth	W 3–2 A	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Aston Villa	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 H
Brighton	W 2–1 H	L 1–3 H
Everton	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 H
Burnley	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
Crystal Palace	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 AD 0–0 H
Fulham	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
West Ham	W 2–0 H	W 3–2 HW 5–1 A
Newcastle	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 A
Manchester City	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Points	60 of 81 · 2.22 per game	44 of 78 · 1.69 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

6 Arsenal wins3 draws1 Chelsea wins

Goals per game1.90 – 0.90 Over 2.540% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 10%

30 Nov 2025Chelsea1–1Arsenal
16 Mar 2025Arsenal1–0Chelsea
10 Nov 2024Chelsea1–1Arsenal
23 Apr 2024Arsenal5–0Chelsea
21 Oct 2023Chelsea2–2Arsenal
2 May 2023Arsenal3–1Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.78
Conceded per game	0.75	1.15
Match goals	2.75	2.93	3.24
Over 1.5	75%	89%
Over 2.5	54%	63%	63%
Over 3.5	32%	37%
Both teams scored	50%	67%	60%
Clean sheets	46%	33%
Failed to score	11%	7%
Games	28	27

	Arsenal	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	2.30	1.90
Conceded per game	1.00	1.40
Match goals	3.30	3.30	3.24
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	63%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	90%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	5.92	6.08
Corners conceded	3.23	4.27
Match total	9.15	10.35	9.99
Over 8.5	50% 13/26	81% 21/26
Over 9.5	46% 12/26	73% 19/26
Over 10.5	42% 11/26	50% 13/26
Cards
Cards	1.36	2.59
Opponent cards	1.79	2.37
Match total	3.15	4.96	3.90
Over 3.5	39% 11/28	67% 18/27
Over 4.5	18% 5/28	63% 17/27

	Arsenal	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	6.89	6.60
Corners conceded	3.44	3.60
Match total	10.33	10.20	9.99
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.50
Opponent cards	1.50	2.50
Match total	2.90	5.00	3.90
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Darren England 115 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.19league 3.77

Red cards0.11league 0.12

Cards 5+42%league 39%

Fouls22.3league 21.5

Penalties0.28league 0.21

Home wins43%league 43%

Arsenal7 with this referee

Record5-1-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 1

W30 Dec 25H · Aston Villa4–12
W13 Sep 25H · Nottingham Forest3–01
D5 Apr 25A · Everton1–11
W27 Dec 24H · Ipswich1–01
W1 Apr 23H · Leeds4–10

Chelsea6 with this referee

Record2-3-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7 Pens for · against3 · 0

W25 Jan 26A · Crystal Palace3–12
L3 Dec 25A · Leeds1–31
D17 Aug 25H · Crystal Palace0–02
W25 Aug 24A · Wolves6–23
D30 Mar 24H · Burnley2–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.