Arsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were clear favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 53). Arsenal had 5.9 days of rest, West Ham 4.8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days5.9 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Arsenal79%
Draw14%
West Ham7%
Arsenal77%
Draw15%
West Ham8%
Arsenal80%
Draw13%
West Ham7%
Arsenal73%
Draw17%
West Ham10%
Arsenal77%
Draw15%
West Ham8%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeJohn Brooks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 85
Team strength
Arsenal
West Ham
92
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
94
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
86
AttackIn forecast
68
95
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ArsenalWest Ham
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
0.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
83%
Scored inContext
67%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
14.33
ShotsContext
10.83
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
28%
On target shareContext
40%
11.17
Shots in the boxContext
8.17
76%
Box shareContext
77%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.33
8.67
Shots allowedContext
12.83
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
4.20
BlocksContext
3.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
83%
Save rateContext
52%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
470
PassesContext
417
401
Accurate passesContext
345
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.64
10.83
FoulsContext
10.33
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
0.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
90%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.80
ShotsContext
10.90
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
32%
On target shareContext
39%
11.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
76%
Box shareContext
76%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.17
9.40
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.44
BlocksContext
3.67
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
87%
Save rateContext
60%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
474
PassesContext
449
404
Accurate passesContext
375
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.00
FoulsContext
11.60
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arsenal
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km796 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
West Ham
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arsenal |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 29 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 796 km | 573 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 16.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
6Gabriel Magalhães
2W. Saliba
12J. Timber
10E. Eze
41D. Rice
8M. Ødegaard
19L. Trossard
14V. Gyökeres
7B. Saka
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
12E. Diouf
3M. Kilman
15K. Mavropanos
29A. Wan-Bissaka
27S. Magassa
7C. Summerville
18Mateus Fernandes
10Lucas Paquetá
20J. Bowen
11N. Füllkrug
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arsenal
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arsenal-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- West Ham+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Arsenal · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
West Ham · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Arsenal | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 Arsenal wins2 draws2 West Ham wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.30
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 22 Feb 2025Arsenal0–1West Ham
- 30 Nov 2024West Ham2–5Arsenal
- 11 Feb 2024West Ham0–6Arsenal
- 28 Dec 2023Arsenal0–2West Ham
- 16 Apr 2023West Ham2–2Arsenal
- 26 Dec 2022Arsenal3–1West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arsenal | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.33 | 3.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Arsenal | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.33 | 3.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arsenal | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.17 | 7.17 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 13.17 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 2.83 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Arsenal | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 6.78 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 12.34 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Brooks 85 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.39league 3.77
Red cards0.11league 0.15
Cards 5+47%league 42%
Fouls22.6league 22.0
Penalties0.21league 0.19
Home wins53%league 45%
Arsenal2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L2 Nov 24A · Newcastle0–14
- W6 Apr 24A · Brighton3–02
West Ham5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W9 Dec 24H · Wolves2–15
- L19 May 24A · Manchester City1–31
- D2 Apr 24H · Tottenham1–11
- W20 Aug 23H · Chelsea3–14
- L3 May 23A · Manchester City0–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arsenal6 games · scored 12 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
5
1
76-90
West Ham6 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 19 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
61-75
8
1
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
