Aston Villa vs Lille – 19 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 19 · 20:00 Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

First leg1–0 2–0Full time

Lille 15th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Aston Villa were slight favourites.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 53). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lille. Aston Villa had 4.3 days of rest, Lille 4 and had to travel 407 km.

Away travel407 kmRest days4.3 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3

Aston Villa51%

Draw27%

Lille22%

Expected goals 1.52 – 0.91

Aston Villa65%

Draw21%

Lille14%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.87

Aston Villa52%

Draw27%

Lille21%

Expected goals 1.52 – 0.89

Aston Villa44%

Draw29%

Lille28%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.02

Aston Villa50%

Draw28%

Lille22%

Expected goals 1.44 – 0.86

Over 2.5 44% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Birmingham)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDavide Massa

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 109

Team strength

Aston Villa

Lille

82 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

83 AttackIn forecast 42

78 DefenceIn forecast 60

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Aston Villa

Lille

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.65

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.20 ShotsContext 11.80

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

32% On target shareContext 30%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

65% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.50 Shots allowedContext 7.90

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.70

3.30 BlocksContext 2.30

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

71% Save rateContext 75%

54% PossessionIn forecast 56%

474 PassesContext 496

404 Accurate passesContext 419

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.90

10.40 FoulsContext 10.50

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,041 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lille

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel407 km895 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Aston Villa	Lille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.3Premier League 2025-2026, 15 Mar	4Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	407 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,041 km	895 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23E. Martínez(G)

22I. Maatsen 14Pau Torres 3V. Lindelöf 26L. Bogarde

21Douglas Luiz 24A. Onana

7J. McGinn 27M. Rogers 19J. Sancho

18T. Abraham

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Lille Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1B. Özer(G)

4Alexsandro Ribeiro 18C. Mbemba 3N. Ngoy

15R. Perraud 32A. Bouaddi 6N. Bentaleb 12T. Meunier

27Félix Correia 9O. Giroud 17N. Mukau

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Aston Villa Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lille Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Aston Villa-0.7 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Lille+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home No home games yet this season.

Lille · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Aston Villa wins0 draws0 Lille wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

12 Mar 2026Lille0–1Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Aston Villa	Lille	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	2.43
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	44%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	47%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Aston Villa	Lille	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	0.80
Conceded per game	1.40	0.60
Match goals	2.50	1.40	2.43
Over 1.5	70%	40%
Over 2.5	30%	10%	44%
Over 3.5	30%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	47%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Aston Villa	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	3.00
Corners conceded	3.00	2.00
Match total	5.00	5.00	9.00
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	0.00
Opponent cards	0.00	2.00
Match total	2.00	2.00	4.40
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Aston Villa	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	5.56	5.90
Corners conceded	4.89	2.90
Match total	10.45	8.80	9.00
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.00
Opponent cards	2.20	1.80
Match total	3.80	3.80	4.40
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 109 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.47league 4.50

Red cards0.29league 0.42

Cards 5+50%league 67%

Fouls25.1league 26.7

Penalties0.18league 0.08

Home wins36%league 42%

Aston Villa

No previous matches with this referee.

Lille1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L16 Mar 22H · Chelsea1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.