Monaco
Attack−17%
Defense risk+2%
Our take
Monaco are slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Lille. Monaco have 6.9 days of rest, Lille 3.9 and have to travel 829 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel829 kmRest days6.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Monaco44%
Draw26%
Lille30%
Monaco44%
Draw27%
Lille29%
Monaco44%
Draw26%
Lille30%
Monaco36%
Draw27%
Lille37%
Monaco44%
Draw26%
Lille30%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
17°COvercast
- Precipitation 6%
- Wind 5 km/h
- Humidity 68%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Monaco and Lille. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Monaco
Lille
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
45
AttackIn forecast
42
56
DefenceIn forecast
60
64
Form indexContext
39
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack−14%
Defense risk+5%
Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
MonacoLille
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
86%
Scored inContext
100%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
11.71
ShotsContext
12.00
4.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.57
38%
On target shareContext
46%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
61%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.80
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.57
3.71
BlocksContext
3.50
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
76%
Save rateContext
80%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
504
PassesContext
480
442
Accurate passesContext
417
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.57
FoulsContext
11.57
11.14
Fouls sufferedContext
14.43
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.40
ShotsContext
10.50
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
36%
On target shareContext
42%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
61%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.11
12.40
Shots allowedContext
14.80
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.56
BlocksContext
4.00
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
68%
Save rateContext
69%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
511
PassesContext
480
443
Accurate passesContext
417
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.90
FoulsContext
10.90
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
WDWDL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,895 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 64 · 8 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Lille
WLWLD
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel829 km501 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 27 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 18 Oct | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 829 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,895 km | 501 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Last XI · not confirmed
1L. Hrádecký(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
22M. Salisu
72S. Sané
2Vanderson
6D. Zakaria
8M. Camara
10A. Golovin
31Ansu Fati
18T. Minamino
11M. Abline
Lille
Last XI · not confirmed
12O. Gill(G)
15R. Perraud
23T. Nianzou
3N. Ngoy
38Maxima Goffi
17N. Mukau
21B. André
7D. Bakwa
10H. Haraldsson
8E. Mbappé
9O. Giroud
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
No reported absences
Lille
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lille+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lille · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Monaco wins3 draws5 Lille wins
Goals per game0.90 – 1.30
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets30% · 50%
- 10 May 2026Monaco0–1Lille
- 24 Aug 2025Lille1–0Monaco
- 22 Feb 2025Lille2–1Monaco
- 18 Oct 2024Monaco0–0Lille
- 24 Apr 2024Monaco1–0Lille
- 29 Oct 2023Lille2–0Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.14 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 29% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Monaco | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.50 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 8.66 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.57 | 3.00 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Monaco | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 8.50 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Monaco7 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Lille7 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
