Rennes vs Strasbourg – 25 Oct 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 25 · 16:15 Roazhon Park, Rennes

Rennes 6th · 13 pts · 7 played WWLWL

VS— Compare

Strasbourg 14th · 7 pts · 7 played WDLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rennes are slight favourites.

Rennes are the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rennes. Rennes have 3 days of rest, Strasbourg 8 and have to travel 698 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel698 kmRest days3 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1

Rennes56%

Draw21%

Strasbourg23%

Expected goals 2.24 – 1.40

Rennes48%

Draw26%

Strasbourg26%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.12

Rennes56%

Draw21%

Strasbourg23%

Expected goals 2.24 – 1.40

Rennes48%

Draw23%

Strasbourg30%

Expected goals 2.00 – 1.57

Rennes56%

Draw21%

Strasbourg23%

Expected goals 2.21 – 1.40

Over 2.5 70% Both score 68% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rennes)

12°CMainly clear

Precipitation 42%
Wind 22 km/h
Humidity 59%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Rennes

Strasbourg

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

63 AttackIn forecast 40

39 DefenceIn forecast 37

42 Form indexContext 24

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rennes

Attack+2%

Defense risk−1%

Strasbourg

Attack+1%

Defense risk+24%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Rennes

Strasbourg

2.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.71

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.14

2.22 xGVia Att/Def 0.86

2.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.18

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.85

86% Scored inContext 86%

14% Clean sheetsContext 0%

16.29 ShotsContext 12.29

6.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

39% On target shareContext 41%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.14

65% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 14%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.29 Shots allowedContext 16.43

5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.14

4.71 BlocksContext 5.33

3.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.14

63% Save rateContext 67%

51% PossessionIn forecast 45%

472 PassesContext 435

398 Accurate passesContext 377

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.70

13.57 FoulsContext 11.14

11.43 Fouls sufferedContext 8.43

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 1.57

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

2.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.21

1.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.93

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.79

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

18.60 ShotsContext 12.50

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

34% On target shareContext 42%

12.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

66% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 16%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.50

14.70 Shots allowedContext 16.70

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

4.89 BlocksContext 5.44

4.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20

68% Save rateContext 70%

54% PossessionIn forecast 48%

476 PassesContext 454

403 Accurate passesContext 393

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.78

12.40 FoulsContext 10.80

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rennes DLWWL

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,196 km in 14d

Schedule load28%Moderate

Form 42 · 7 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L18 OctA · Paris FC3–41.4 xPts
W15 OctH · OFI2–12.2 xPts
W11 OctH · Auxerre4–12.1 xPts
L19 SepA · Lyon0–41.2 xPts
D16 SepA · Sturm Graz0–01.4 xPts

Strasbourg WDLLL

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel698 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected

L17 OctH · Paris Saint Germain1–30.5 xPts
L11 OctA · Nice1–21.5 xPts
L19 SepA · Paris FC1–21.3 xPts
D12 SepH · Monaco1–11.4 xPts
W6 SepA · Estac Troyes6–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rennes	Strasbourg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 28	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct	8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	698 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,196 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rennes Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Paris FC (A) 3–4, 18 Oct

30B. Samba(G)

95P. Frankowski 24A. Rouault 4C. Cresswell 14B. Reynolds

28A. Thomasson 6D. Cissé 17S. Szymański

90I. Soumaré 9E. Lepaul 10L. Blas

Strasbourg Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Paris Saint Germain (H) 1–3, 17 Oct

1F. Jørgensen(G)

36Oso 31Karim Coulibaly 4J. Mitchell 16Genesis Antwi

21Pape Diop 14Dário Essugo

19Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé 10G. Reyna 80Gessime Yassine

40C. Harder

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rennes No reported absences

Strasbourg No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Rennes+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Strasbourg+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Rennes · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 1.25

Strasbourg · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Rennes	Strasbourg
Paris FC	L 3–4 A	L 1–2 A
Marseille	W 1–0 H	L 0–4 A
Paris Saint Germain	D 2–2 H	L 1–3 H
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Rennes wins1 draws3 Strasbourg wins

Goals per game1.80 – 1.00 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 10%

19 Apr 2026Strasbourg0–3Rennes
2 Nov 2025Rennes4–1Strasbourg
2 Feb 2025Rennes1–0Strasbourg
25 Aug 2024Strasbourg3–1Rennes
31 Mar 2024Strasbourg2–0Rennes
29 Oct 2023Rennes1–1Strasbourg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rennes	Strasbourg	Forecast
Scored per game	2.14	1.71
Conceded per game	2.00	2.14
Match goals	4.14	3.86	3.64
Over 1.5	86%	100%
Over 2.5	86%	86%	70%
Over 3.5	71%	43%
Both teams scored	71%	86%	68%
Clean sheets	14%	0%
Failed to score	14%	14%
Games	7	7

	Rennes	Strasbourg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	2.00
Conceded per game	1.80	2.10
Match goals	3.60	4.10	3.64
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	80%	70%
Over 3.5	60%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	90%	68%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rennes	Strasbourg	League
Corners
Corners won	6.83	3.00
Corners conceded	5.67	4.80
Match total	12.50	7.80	9.63
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	0% 0/5
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	0% 0/5
Cards
Cards	2.43	1.71
Opponent cards	2.43	1.29
Match total	4.86	3.00	3.47
Over 3.5	86% 6/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	14% 1/7

	Rennes	Strasbourg	League
Corners
Corners won	7.56	3.29
Corners conceded	5.11	5.00
Match total	12.67	8.29	9.63
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	14% 1/7
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.70
Opponent cards	2.50	1.30
Match total	4.50	3.00	3.47
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.