Toulouse vs Estac Troyes

Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 24 · 16:15 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

Toulouse 11th · 9 pts · 7 played LDWDW

VS— Compare

Estac Troyes 17th · 4 pts · 7 played LLLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Toulouse are clear favourites.

Toulouse are the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Toulouse. Toulouse have 7.9 days of rest, Estac Troyes 6.9 and have to travel 561 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel561 kmRest days7.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Toulouse69%

Draw19%

Estac Troyes12%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.83

Toulouse67%

Draw20%

Estac Troyes13%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.84

Toulouse69%

Draw19%

Estac Troyes12%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.83

Toulouse62%

Draw22%

Estac Troyes16%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.93

Toulouse70%

Draw18%

Estac Troyes12%

Expected goals 2.34 – 0.87

Over 2.5 60% Both score 51% Likeliest score 2–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Toulouse)

17°COvercast

Precipitation 21%
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 61%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Estac Troyes 5 Losses in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Toulouse

Estac Troyes

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 12

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 12

45 AttackIn forecast 12

49 DefenceIn forecast 19

54 Form indexContext 7

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Toulouse

Attack+26%

Defense risk−36%

Estac Troyes

Attack−8%

Defense risk+2%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Toulouse

Estac Troyes

1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71

1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.29

1.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

71% Scored inContext 43%

14% Clean sheetsContext 14%

13.57 ShotsContext 14.29

4.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

34% On target shareContext 21%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.43

65% Box shareContext 73%

13% ConversionContext 5%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.33

14.43 Shots allowedContext 12.43

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

4.00 BlocksContext 3.00

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

65% Save rateContext 55%

50% PossessionIn forecast 39%

500 PassesContext 359

430 Accurate passesContext 287

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.52

15.43 FoulsContext 12.29

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.71

1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.57

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

70% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.70 ShotsContext 12.10

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

35% On target shareContext 25%

8.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

62% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 7%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.56

12.80 Shots allowedContext 13.90

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

4.33 BlocksContext 3.10

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

67% Save rateContext 63%

48% PossessionIn forecast 39%

428 PassesContext 351

366 Accurate passesContext 279

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.61

14.60 FoulsContext 11.10

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Toulouse LDWDW

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,959 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 54 · 8 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W16 OctA · Le Mans3–01.4 xPts
D10 OctA · Monaco2–20.7 xPts
W19 SepH · LE Havre3–21.9 xPts
D12 SepA · Lorient2–21.1 xPts
L3 SepH · Lille0–11.1 xPts

Estac Troyes LLLLL

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel561 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L17 OctH · Lens1–30.6 xPts
L11 OctH · Marseille0–20.9 xPts
L19 SepA · Angers0–20.9 xPts
L13 SepA · Lille0–20.4 xPts
L6 SepH · Strasbourg2–61.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Toulouse	Estac Troyes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 16 Oct	6.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	561 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,959 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8.2	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Toulouse Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Le Mans (A) 3–0, 16 Oct

16G. Restes(G)

12C. Tapé 2R. Nicolaisen 3M. McKenzie 22R. Messali

14N. Sigur 23C. Cásseres

8T. Jørgensen 20C. Tengstedt 15A. Dønnum

13J. Russell-Rowe

Estac Troyes Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Lens (H) 1–3, 17 Oct

33P. Beach(G)

5P. Gozzi 4M. Diaz 6A. Monfray 2L. Maronnier

29D. Karim 8M. Diop

23T. Nkada 17A. Mille 10M. Ifnaoui

20R. Ripart

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Toulouse No reported absences

Estac Troyes No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Toulouse+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estac Troyes+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Toulouse · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.67

Estac Troyes · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Toulouse	Estac Troyes
Lorient	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 A
Lille	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 A
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Toulouse wins0 draws0 Estac Troyes wins

Goals per game3.50 – 0.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

1 Feb 2023Toulouse4–1Estac Troyes
14 Aug 2022Estac Troyes0–3Toulouse

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Toulouse	Estac Troyes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.71	0.71
Conceded per game	1.57	2.29
Match goals	3.29	3.00	3.09
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	43%	60%
Over 3.5	57%	29%
Both teams scored	57%	43%	51%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	29%	57%
Games	7	7

	Toulouse	Estac Troyes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.71
Conceded per game	1.30	2.29
Match goals	2.90	3.00	3.09
Over 1.5	80%	86%
Over 2.5	70%	43%	60%
Over 3.5	40%	29%
Both teams scored	60%	43%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	14%
Failed to score	30%	57%
Games	10	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Toulouse	Estac Troyes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.14	6.50
Corners conceded	4.43	2.50
Match total	8.57	9.00	9.63
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	1.57	1.57
Opponent cards	1.43	1.29
Match total	3.00	2.86	3.47
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	29% 2/7

	Toulouse	Estac Troyes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	5.33
Corners conceded	4.90	4.78
Match total	9.00	10.11	9.63
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.40
Opponent cards	1.30	1.60
Match total	3.30	3.00	3.47
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.