Marseille vs LE Havre – 25 Oct 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 25 · 16:15 Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

Marseille 9th · 9 pts · 7 played LLLWW

VS— Compare

LE Havre 18th · 2 pts · 7 played LDLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Marseille are clear favourites.

Marseille are the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 20). Marseille come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Marseille have 3 days of rest, LE Havre 7 and have to travel 798 km. Weather to note: strong wind.

Away travel798 kmRest days3 · 7Matches / 14d4 · 1

Marseille62%

Draw21%

LE Havre17%

Expected goals 2.21 – 1.10

Marseille62%

Draw22%

LE Havre16%

Expected goals 2.00 – 0.90

Marseille62%

Draw21%

LE Havre17%

Expected goals 2.21 – 1.10

Marseille54%

Draw23%

LE Havre23%

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.24

Marseille65%

Draw20%

LE Havre15%

Expected goals 2.30 – 1.04

Over 2.5 64% Both score 60% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 36 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Marseille)

19°CMainly clear

Precipitation 36%
Wind 30 km/h
Humidity 74%

Strong wind

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak LE Havre 3 Losses in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Marseille

LE Havre

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

48 AttackIn forecast 20

46 DefenceIn forecast 22

41 Form indexContext 6

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Marseille

Attack+22%

Defense risk−22%

LE Havre

Attack+1%

Defense risk+2%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Marseille

LE Havre

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71

1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

71% Scored inContext 57%

29% Clean sheetsContext 14%

13.14 ShotsContext 15.57

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71

38% On target shareContext 30%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.29

62% Box shareContext 66%

15% ConversionContext 5%

1.40 OffsidesContext 1.71

15.86 Shots allowedContext 12.86

5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.86

4.83 BlocksContext 3.67

3.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.83

73% Save rateContext 70%

58% PossessionIn forecast 50%

587 PassesContext 408

521 Accurate passesContext 340

89% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.62

10.71 FoulsContext 14.57

10.86 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

1.43 Yellow cardsContext 1.57

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.29

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.83 xGVia Att/Def 0.95

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

70% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.40 ShotsContext 12.70

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

38% On target shareContext 32%

9.78 Shots in the boxContext 9.22

63% Box shareContext 67%

13% ConversionContext 6%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.10

16.20 Shots allowedContext 13.10

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

4.78 BlocksContext 3.78

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

70% Save rateContext 75%

55% PossessionIn forecast 47%

547 PassesContext 381

481 Accurate passesContext 312

88% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.70

11.20 FoulsContext 14.70

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Marseille LLWLW

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel0 km4,226 km in 14d

Schedule load53%High

Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

W18 OctA · Angers5–21.7 xPts
L15 OctH · Olympiakos Piraeus0–11.3 xPts
W11 OctA · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
L20 SepH · Paris Saint Germain1–20.8 xPts
L17 SepA · Besiktas1–41.1 xPts

LE Havre LDLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel798 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 6 · 1 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -5.1 vs expected

L18 OctH · Auxerre1–31.6 xPts
L10 OctA · Lille0–10.6 xPts
L19 SepA · Toulouse2–30.9 xPts
D12 SepH · Angers0–01.6 xPts
L5 SepH · Stade Brestois 291–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Marseille	LE Havre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	High · 53	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	Yes	No
Rest dayssince last match	3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	798 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,226 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 4 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Marseille Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Angers (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1J. de Lange(G)

33Emerson 19G. Kondogbia 4C. Egan-Riley 22T. Weah

6Tochukwu Nnadi

14Igor Paixão 8H. Abdelli 77A. Harit

9A. Gouiri

LE Havre Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Auxerre (H) 1–3, 18 Oct

93G. Gallon(G)

5A. Touba 6J. Mwanga 20D. Ouziad

7M. Richardson 26S. Ebonog 14R. Ndiaye

25M. Samatta 9J. Maja 30S. Nakamura

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Marseille No reported absences

LE Havre No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Marseille+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
LE Havre+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Marseille · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.67

LE Havre · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Marseille	LE Havre
Angers	W 5–2 A	D 0–0 H
Monaco	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

6 Marseille wins0 draws0 LE Havre wins

Goals per game3.33 – 0.83 Over 2.583% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

10 May 2026LE Havre0–1Marseille
18 Oct 2025Marseille6–2LE Havre
10 May 2025LE Havre1–3Marseille
5 Jan 2025Marseille5–1LE Havre
19 May 2024LE Havre1–2Marseille
8 Oct 2023Marseille3–0LE Havre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Marseille	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.71
Conceded per game	1.43	1.57
Match goals	3.43	2.29	3.31
Over 1.5	86%	57%
Over 2.5	57%	43%	64%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	43%	57%	60%
Clean sheets	29%	14%
Failed to score	29%	43%
Games	7	7

	Marseille	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	0.80
Conceded per game	1.60	1.30
Match goals	3.40	2.10	3.31
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	64%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Marseille	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	5.71
Corners conceded	4.43	4.86
Match total	8.72	10.57	9.63
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	100% 7/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	86% 6/7
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.57	1.86
Opponent cards	2.29	1.57
Match total	3.86	3.43	3.47
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7

	Marseille	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	5.11
Corners conceded	4.50	5.67
Match total	9.20	10.78	9.63
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.10
Opponent cards	2.10	1.70
Match total	3.80	3.80	3.47
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.