Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon

Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 25 · 19:45 Parc des Princes, Paris

Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 14 pts · 7 played LWWWW

VS— Compare

Lyon 1st · 14 pts · 7 played WDWLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain are clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 60). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Paris Saint Germain. Paris Saint Germain have 5 days of rest, Lyon 3 and have to travel 395 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel395 kmRest days5 · 3Matches / 14d3 · 3

Paris Saint Germain77%

Draw14%

Lyon9%

Expected goals 3.05 – 1.03

Paris Saint Germain69%

Draw19%

Lyon12%

Expected goals 2.22 – 0.81

Paris Saint Germain77%

Draw14%

Lyon9%

Expected goals 3.05 – 1.03

Paris Saint Germain70%

Draw17%

Lyon13%

Expected goals 2.72 – 1.16

Paris Saint Germain75%

Draw15%

Lyon10%

Expected goals 2.87 – 1.00

Over 2.5 77% Both score 62% Likeliest score 3–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

11°COvercast

Precipitation 38%
Wind 12 km/h
Humidity 67%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Paris Saint Germain

Lyon

90 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 60

91 AttackIn forecast 55

83 DefenceIn forecast 56

96 Form indexContext 85

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack−14%

Defense risk+15%

Lyon

Attack−36%

Defense risk+101%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Paris Saint Germain

Lyon

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71

2.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

-0.65 Goals minus xGContext +0.64

100% Scored inContext 86%

14% Clean sheetsContext 43%

20.57 ShotsContext 12.29

7.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

35% On target shareContext 38%

11.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.57

56% Box shareContext 71%

10% ConversionContext 15%

3.20 OffsidesContext 2.20

10.86 Shots allowedContext 11.86

4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14

2.17 BlocksContext 1.71

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

83% Save rateContext 79%

68% PossessionIn forecast 52%

708 PassesContext 468

637 Accurate passesContext 400

90% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.97

5.71 FoulsContext 11.00

11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 14.14

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.43

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.58

100% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

21.50 ShotsContext 12.70

7.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.89

36% On target shareContext 42%

12.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

56% Box shareContext 72%

12% ConversionContext 15%

3.33 OffsidesContext 2.57

11.90 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.22 BlocksContext 2.30

4.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

78% Save rateContext 76%

67% PossessionIn forecast 52%

702 PassesContext 457

632 Accurate passesContext 389

90% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.07 Team ratingContext 6.95

7.00 FoulsContext 10.50

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain WWWWW

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,005 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected

W17 OctA · Strasbourg3–12.4 xPts
W14 OctA · Manchester City4–20.9 xPts
W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts

Lyon WWLWW

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel395 km973 km in 14d

Schedule load29%Moderate

Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +4.3 vs expected

W18 OctH · Nice2–12.2 xPts
W15 OctH · Crystal Palace3–21.5 xPts
L9 OctA · Lens1–21.1 xPts
W19 SepH · Rennes4–01.6 xPts
W16 SepA · Anderlecht2–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris Saint Germain	Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Moderate · 29
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct	3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	395 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,005 km	973 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Strasbourg (A) 3–1, 17 Oct

39M. Safonov(G)

12L. Digne 21L. Hernández 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery

4Beraldo 27Dro Fernández 87João Neves

7K. Kvaratskhelia 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche

Lyon Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Nice (H) 2–1, 18 Oct

40R. Descamps(G)

16Abner 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 13Z. Athekame

2M. Bidstrup 6F. Tessmann

24J. Duranville 99N. Nartey 26K. Boudache

10P. Šulc

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris Saint Germain No reported absences

Lyon No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Paris Saint Germain+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lyon+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.50

Lyon · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Paris Saint Germain	Lyon
Rennes	D 2–2 A	W 4–0 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

7 Paris Saint Germain wins1 draws2 Lyon wins

Goals per game2.20 – 1.20 Over 2.570% Both scored80% Clean sheets10% · 10%

19 Apr 2026Paris Saint Germain1–2Lyon
9 Nov 2025Lyon2–3Paris Saint Germain
23 Feb 2025Lyon2–3Paris Saint Germain
15 Dec 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Lyon
21 Apr 2024Paris Saint Germain4–1Lyon
3 Sep 2023Lyon1–4Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Paris Saint Germain	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.86
Conceded per game	1.29	0.71
Match goals	3.29	2.57	4.08
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	86%	57%	77%
Over 3.5	57%	29%
Both teams scored	86%	57%	62%
Clean sheets	14%	43%
Failed to score	0%	14%
Games	7	7

	Paris Saint Germain	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	1.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.00
Match goals	3.90	2.90	4.08
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	90%	70%	77%
Over 3.5	60%	30%
Both teams scored	90%	70%	62%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris Saint Germain	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	4.29
Corners conceded	3.25	6.29
Match total	8.00	10.58	9.63
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	86% 6/7
Over 10.5	0% 0/4	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.57
Opponent cards	2.43	2.14
Match total	3.43	3.71	3.47
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7

	Paris Saint Germain	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	5.57	4.40
Corners conceded	4.14	6.00
Match total	9.71	10.40	9.63
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.50
Opponent cards	2.30	2.10
Match total	3.30	3.60	3.47
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.