Bundesliga Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 3 · 14:30 BayArena, Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel63 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Bayer Leverkusen—%
Draw—%
Borussia Dortmund—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leverkusen)

Forecast from 19 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayer LeverkusenBorussia Dortmund
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
79 Current StrengthIn forecast 80
87 AttackIn forecast 69
79 DefenceIn forecast 80
94 Form indexContext 61
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayer LeverkusenBorussia Dortmund
2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67
2.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.76
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
+0.48 Goals minus xGContext +0.07
100% Scored inContext 83%
33% Clean sheetsContext 67%
19.67 ShotsContext 15.17
6.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.17
31% On target shareContext 34%
13.83 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
71% Box shareContext 73%
14% ConversionContext 12%
1.33 OffsidesContext 1.50
11.50 Shots allowedContext 11.67
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
2.67 BlocksContext 2.80
2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
52% Save rateContext 78%
58% PossessionIn forecast 55%
539 PassesContext 530
470 Accurate passesContext 450
87% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.02 Team ratingContext 7.04
12.33 FoulsContext 11.17
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.83
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.17
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
2.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.85
1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.05
100% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 50%
18.50 ShotsContext 14.70
6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
36% On target shareContext 39%
13.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
71% Box shareContext 72%
13% ConversionContext 13%
1.89 OffsidesContext 1.63
12.20 Shots allowedContext 11.20
4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25
3.10 BlocksContext 2.78
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
63% Save rateContext 77%
58% PossessionIn forecast 54%
537 PassesContext 530
470 Accurate passesContext 454
88% Pass accuracyContext 86%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.99
11.90 FoulsContext 10.90
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km290 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts
Borussia Dortmund
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel63 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayer Leverkusen Borussia Dortmund
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Mar14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km63 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways290 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández 24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby
14P. Schick
Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayer Leverkusen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.67
Conceded
0.33
Borussia Dortmund · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
1.33
Conceded
0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentBayer LeverkusenBorussia Dortmund
Union Berlin W 4–0 H D 0–0 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Bayer Leverkusen wins2 draws5 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.90 Over 2.550% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 20%
  • 11 Apr 2026Borussia Dortmund0–1Bayer Leverkusen
  • 29 Nov 2025Bayer Leverkusen1–2Borussia Dortmund
  • 11 May 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–4Borussia Dortmund
  • 10 Jan 2025Borussia Dortmund2–3Bayer Leverkusen
  • 21 Apr 2024Borussia Dortmund1–1Bayer Leverkusen
  • 3 Dec 2023Bayer Leverkusen1–1Borussia Dortmund

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Bayer LeverkusenBorussia DortmundForecast
Scored per game 2.671.83
Conceded per game 1.500.67
Match goals 4.172.50
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 83%50%
Over 3.5 67%33%
Both teams scored 67%33%
Clean sheets 33%67%
Failed to score 0%17%
Games66
Bayer LeverkusenBorussia DortmundForecast
Scored per game 2.401.90
Conceded per game 1.300.90
Match goals 3.702.80
Over 1.5 100%70%
Over 2.5 70%50%
Over 3.5 60%40%
Both teams scored 60%40%
Clean sheets 40%50%
Failed to score 0%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayer LeverkusenBorussia DortmundLeague
Corners
Corners won7.334.83
Corners conceded3.334.67
Match total10.669.5010.72
Over 8.550% 3/667% 4/6
Over 9.550% 3/667% 4/6
Over 10.550% 3/633% 2/6
Cards
Cards1.332.67
Opponent cards2.172.00
Match total3.504.673.51
Over 3.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 4.533% 2/650% 3/6
Bayer LeverkusenBorussia DortmundLeague
Corners
Corners won6.705.80
Corners conceded3.504.50
Match total10.2010.3010.72
Over 8.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 9.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 10.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.202.20
Opponent cards1.801.50
Match total3.003.703.51
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayer Leverkusen6 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3 3 0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
5 2 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München Hamburger SV Apr 314:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Werder Bremen Apr 314:30 Bayer Leverkusen Borussia Dortmund Apr 314:30 Eintracht Frankfurt VfB Stuttgart Apr 314:30 FC Augsburg 1899 Hoffenheim Apr 314:30 RB Leipzig SC Freiburg Apr 314:30 FC Schalke 04 SC Paderborn 07 Apr 314:30 Union Berlin FSV Mainz 05 Apr 314:30 SV Elversberg 1.FC Köln Apr 314:30