Bundesliga Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 3 · 14:30 Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
FSV Mainz 05 5th · 10 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel455 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Union Berlin—%
Draw—%
FSV Mainz 05—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Berlin)

Forecast from 19 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Union BerlinFSV Mainz 05
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
39 Current StrengthIn forecast 55
42 AttackIn forecast 68
41 DefenceIn forecast 56
38 Form indexContext 70
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union Berlin

Attack—
Defense risk—

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union BerlinFSV Mainz 05
0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.33
2.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67
1.17 xGVia Att/Def 2.14
2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
50% Scored inContext 83%
33% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.83 ShotsContext 17.83
6.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
35% On target shareContext 34%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.33
64% Box shareContext 76%
7% ConversionContext 13%
2.60 OffsidesContext 2.40
15.67 Shots allowedContext 12.50
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60
4.20 BlocksContext 4.17
4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60
56% Save rateContext 57%
44% PossessionIn forecast 51%
359 PassesContext 446
268 Accurate passesContext 357
75% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.58 Team ratingContext 6.94
11.67 FoulsContext 13.83
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 2.21
2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.01
70% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
12.30 ShotsContext 17.10
5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20
38% On target shareContext 36%
8.30 Shots in the boxContext 12.80
63% Box shareContext 75%
12% ConversionContext 13%
2.43 OffsidesContext 2.22
14.50 Shots allowedContext 12.50
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
4.13 BlocksContext 3.30
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
57% Save rateContext 58%
45% PossessionIn forecast 48%
372 PassesContext 420
285 Accurate passesContext 337
77% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.94
10.30 FoulsContext 12.80
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union Berlin
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km300 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
  • L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts
FSV Mainz 05
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel455 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union Berlin FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Mar14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km455 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways300 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke
FSV Mainz 05 Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs FC Schalke 04 (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1A. Schwolow(G)
48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci
9P. Tietz 23S. Becker

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union Berlin Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FSV Mainz 05 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Union Berlin · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
FSV Mainz 05 · Away 3.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
3.33
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentUnion BerlinFSV Mainz 05
FC Schalke 04 L 1–3 H W 1–0 A
Bayer Leverkusen L 0–4 A L 3–4 H
Eintracht Frankfurt D 3–3 H L 1–3 H
Points1 of 9 · 0.33 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Union Berlin wins4 draws0 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.570% Both scored90% Clean sheets10% · 10%
  • 10 May 2026FSV Mainz 051–3Union Berlin
  • 10 Jan 2026Union Berlin2–2FSV Mainz 05
  • 19 Jan 2025Union Berlin2–1FSV Mainz 05
  • 24 Aug 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Union Berlin
  • 7 Feb 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Union Berlin
  • 20 Aug 2023Union Berlin4–1FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union BerlinFSV Mainz 05Forecast
Scored per game 0.832.33
Conceded per game 2.831.67
Match goals 3.674.00
Over 1.5 67%67%
Over 2.5 67%67%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 33%50%
Clean sheets 33%50%
Failed to score 50%17%
Games66
Union BerlinFSV Mainz 05Forecast
Scored per game 1.502.20
Conceded per game 2.301.80
Match goals 3.804.00
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 80%70%
Over 3.5 80%60%
Both teams scored 50%60%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union BerlinFSV Mainz 05League
Corners
Corners won4.004.83
Corners conceded5.834.00
Match total9.838.8310.72
Over 8.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 9.567% 4/633% 2/6
Over 10.533% 2/617% 1/6
Cards
Cards2.502.33
Opponent cards2.002.00
Match total4.504.333.51
Over 3.583% 5/650% 3/6
Over 4.533% 2/617% 1/6
Union BerlinFSV Mainz 05League
Corners
Corners won4.104.80
Corners conceded6.504.90
Match total10.609.7010.72
Over 8.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 9.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 10.550% 5/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.201.90
Opponent cards1.901.90
Match total4.103.803.51
Over 3.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
4 61-75
4 2 76-90
FSV Mainz 056 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
4 0-15
3 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 61-75
6 1 76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
5 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 6 61-75
9 2 76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 22 · conceded 18
3 4 0-15
4 16-30
7 2 31-45
2 4 46-60
2 61-75
6 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München Hamburger SV Apr 314:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Werder Bremen Apr 314:30 Bayer Leverkusen Borussia Dortmund Apr 314:30 Eintracht Frankfurt VfB Stuttgart Apr 314:30 FC Augsburg 1899 Hoffenheim Apr 314:30 RB Leipzig SC Freiburg Apr 314:30 FC Schalke 04 SC Paderborn 07 Apr 314:30 Union Berlin FSV Mainz 05 Apr 314:30 SV Elversberg 1.FC Köln Apr 314:30