Bundesliga Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 3 · 14:30 Fußball Arena München, München
Bayern München 1st · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Hamburger SV 9th · 9 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel612 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Bayern München—%
Draw—%
Hamburger SV—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (München)

Forecast from 19 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayern München and Hamburger SV. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayern MünchenHamburger SV
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
93 Current StrengthIn forecast 40
96 AttackIn forecast 37
90 DefenceIn forecast 43
78 Form indexContext 70
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayern München

Attack—
Defense risk—

Hamburger SV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayern MünchenHamburger SV
3.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
3.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.04
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.83
+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.04
83% Scored inContext 50%
33% Clean sheetsContext 17%
24.17 ShotsContext 11.00
10.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67
43% On target shareContext 33%
14.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.33
61% Box shareContext 56%
15% ConversionContext 9%
2.67 OffsidesContext 2.00
7.67 Shots allowedContext 19.17
2.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67
3.00 BlocksContext 5.33
2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
75% Save rateContext 62%
69% PossessionIn forecast 40%
706 PassesContext 346
635 Accurate passesContext 270
90% Pass accuracyContext 78%
7.39 Team ratingContext 6.54
10.50 FoulsContext 14.17
9.33 Fouls sufferedContext 12.83
0.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
3.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10
3.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.11
1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63
+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
90% Scored inContext 70%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
22.80 ShotsContext 11.60
9.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
43% On target shareContext 35%
13.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.90
59% Box shareContext 59%
16% ConversionContext 11%
2.90 OffsidesContext 1.86
8.10 Shots allowedContext 16.40
3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
3.50 BlocksContext 4.56
2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
70% Save rateContext 64%
68% PossessionIn forecast 40%
693 PassesContext 348
625 Accurate passesContext 275
90% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.30 Team ratingContext 6.71
8.60 FoulsContext 12.40
8.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayern München
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km912 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
  • D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
  • W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts
Hamburger SV
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel612 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · VfB Stuttgart1–01.0 xPts
  • W10 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–20.9 xPts
  • W19 SepH · 1.FC Köln2–11.5 xPts
  • L13 SepA · RB Leipzig0–50.6 xPts
  • L6 SepH · FSV Mainz 050–51.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayern München Hamburger SV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Mar14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km612 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways912 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Hamburger SV Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs VfB Stuttgart (H) 1–0, 17 Oct
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
17W. Omari 33S. Bornauw 24N. Capaldo
37Louis Lemke 28M. Muheim 4B. Nadir 5M. Adeline 3D. Møller Wolfe
15Y. Poulsen 20Fábio Vieira

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayern München Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Hamburger SV Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayern München · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
6.00
Conceded
0.67
Hamburger SV · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBayern MünchenHamburger SV
RB Leipzig W 6–1 H L 0–5 A
VfB Stuttgart W 5–1 H W 1–0 H
Points6 of 6 · 3.00 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Bayern München wins1 draws0 Hamburger SV wins
Goals per game3.50 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 31 Jan 2026Hamburger SV2–2Bayern München
  • 13 Sep 2025Bayern München5–0Hamburger SV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Bayern MünchenHamburger SVForecast
Scored per game 3.671.00
Conceded per game 0.832.50
Match goals 4.503.50
Over 1.5 83%83%
Over 2.5 83%67%
Over 3.5 67%50%
Both teams scored 67%33%
Clean sheets 33%17%
Failed to score 17%50%
Games66
Bayern MünchenHamburger SVForecast
Scored per game 3.601.30
Conceded per game 0.902.10
Match goals 4.503.40
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 80%70%
Over 3.5 70%40%
Both teams scored 60%60%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayern MünchenHamburger SVLeague
Corners
Corners won9.403.83
Corners conceded3.206.00
Match total12.609.8310.72
Over 8.5100% 5/567% 4/6
Over 9.5100% 5/550% 3/6
Over 10.5100% 5/533% 2/6
Cards
Cards0.831.33
Opponent cards2.172.17
Match total3.003.503.51
Over 3.550% 3/650% 3/6
Over 4.50% 0/60% 0/6
Bayern MünchenHamburger SVLeague
Corners
Corners won8.443.60
Corners conceded3.786.40
Match total12.2210.0010.72
Over 8.5100% 9/970% 7/10
Over 9.578% 7/950% 5/10
Over 10.567% 6/940% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.001.50
Opponent cards1.902.60
Match total2.904.103.51
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.510% 1/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayern München6 games · scored 22 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
3 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Hamburger SV6 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
1 1 0-15
3 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 61-75
3 4 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
5 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
10 1 46-60
7 2 61-75
8 2 76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
2 1 0-15
5 16-30
2 4 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München Hamburger SV Apr 314:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Werder Bremen Apr 314:30 Bayer Leverkusen Borussia Dortmund Apr 314:30 Eintracht Frankfurt VfB Stuttgart Apr 314:30 FC Augsburg 1899 Hoffenheim Apr 314:30 RB Leipzig SC Freiburg Apr 314:30 FC Schalke 04 SC Paderborn 07 Apr 314:30 Union Berlin FSV Mainz 05 Apr 314:30 SV Elversberg 1.FC Köln Apr 314:30