Bundesliga Gameweek 20 Sat, Feb 6 · 14:30 BayArena, Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
FC Augsburg 10th · 8 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel408 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bayer Leverkusen—%
Draw—%
FC Augsburg—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leverkusen)

Forecast from 22 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayer LeverkusenFC Augsburg
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
79 Current StrengthIn forecast 50
87 AttackIn forecast 72
79 DefenceIn forecast 23
94 Form indexContext 46
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Augsburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayer LeverkusenFC Augsburg
2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
2.19 xGVia Att/Def 2.15
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.95
+0.48 Goals minus xGContext +0.52
100% Scored inContext 100%
33% Clean sheetsContext 17%
19.67 ShotsContext 15.67
6.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
31% On target shareContext 45%
13.83 Shots in the boxContext 11.67
71% Box shareContext 72%
14% ConversionContext 17%
1.33 OffsidesContext 1.75
11.50 Shots allowedContext 21.83
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.83
2.67 BlocksContext 6.17
2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50
52% Save rateContext 70%
58% PossessionIn forecast 42%
539 PassesContext 372
470 Accurate passesContext 288
87% Pass accuracyContext 77%
7.02 Team ratingContext 7.01
12.33 FoulsContext 9.83
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
2.35 xGVia Att/Def 2.02
1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.25
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.28
100% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
18.50 ShotsContext 15.10
6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30
36% On target shareContext 42%
13.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.10
71% Box shareContext 72%
13% ConversionContext 15%
1.89 OffsidesContext 1.88
12.20 Shots allowedContext 19.20
4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80
3.10 BlocksContext 5.50
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80
63% Save rateContext 71%
58% PossessionIn forecast 41%
537 PassesContext 356
470 Accurate passesContext 274
88% Pass accuracyContext 77%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.95
11.90 FoulsContext 9.20
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,152 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel408 km884 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 46 · 5 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · SV Elversberg3–41.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Bayern München2–20.5 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Werder Bremen2–31.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Bayer Leverkusen2–21.3 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt4–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayer Leverkusen FC Augsburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 20Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Jan7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km408 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,152 km884 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 71 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández 24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby
14P. Schick
FC Augsburg Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs SV Elversberg (A) 3–4, 17 Oct
1F. Dahmen(G)
2C. Brackelmann 5C. Matsima 35A. Bah
16Hennes Behrens 32F. Rieder 4H. Massengo 27M. Wolf
21A. Ibrahimović 19Robin Fellhauer
9Rodrigo Ribeiro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayer Leverkusen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FC Augsburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.67
Conceded
0.33
FC Augsburg · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentBayer LeverkusenFC Augsburg
SV Elversberg L 2–3 A L 3–4 A
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

5 Bayer Leverkusen wins1 draws4 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.10 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets30% · 20%
  • 12 Sep 2026FC Augsburg2–2Bayer Leverkusen
  • 18 Apr 2026Bayer Leverkusen1–2FC Augsburg
  • 6 Dec 2025FC Augsburg2–0Bayer Leverkusen
  • 26 Apr 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–0FC Augsburg
  • 14 Dec 2024FC Augsburg0–2Bayer Leverkusen
  • 18 May 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–1FC Augsburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Bayer LeverkusenFC AugsburgForecast
Scored per game 2.672.67
Conceded per game 1.502.00
Match goals 4.174.67
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 83%100%
Over 3.5 67%83%
Both teams scored 67%83%
Clean sheets 33%17%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games66
Bayer LeverkusenFC AugsburgForecast
Scored per game 2.402.30
Conceded per game 1.301.90
Match goals 3.704.20
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 70%90%
Over 3.5 60%80%
Both teams scored 60%80%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 0%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayer LeverkusenFC AugsburgLeague
Corners
Corners won7.336.00
Corners conceded3.336.83
Match total10.6612.8310.72
Over 8.550% 3/683% 5/6
Over 9.550% 3/683% 5/6
Over 10.550% 3/683% 5/6
Cards
Cards1.331.83
Opponent cards2.171.50
Match total3.503.333.51
Over 3.567% 4/633% 2/6
Over 4.533% 2/617% 1/6
Bayer LeverkusenFC AugsburgLeague
Corners
Corners won6.705.80
Corners conceded3.506.10
Match total10.2011.9010.72
Over 8.560% 6/1080% 8/10
Over 9.540% 4/1080% 8/10
Over 10.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.201.60
Opponent cards1.801.70
Match total3.003.303.51
Over 3.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayer Leverkusen6 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3 3 0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 1 76-90
FC Augsburg6 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
1 3 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 31-45
5 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 5 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 23 · conceded 19
1 4 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
4 3 61-75
5 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München SV Elversberg Feb 614:30 Werder Bremen 1.FC Köln Feb 614:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach SC Freiburg Feb 614:30 Bayer Leverkusen FC Augsburg Feb 614:30 Eintracht Frankfurt FSV Mainz 05 Feb 614:30 VfB Stuttgart 1899 Hoffenheim Feb 614:30 FC Schalke 04 Union Berlin Feb 614:30 Hamburger SV RB Leipzig Feb 614:30 SC Paderborn 07 Borussia Dortmund Feb 614:30