Werder Bremen vs 1.FC Köln

Bundesliga Gameweek 20 Sat, Feb 6 · 14:30 wohninvest WESERSTADION, Bremen

Werder Bremen 8th · 9 pts · 6 played WDWDD

VS— Compare

1.FC Köln 12th · 7 pts · 6 played LDLWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel270 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Werder Bremen—%

Draw—%

1.FC Köln—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Bremen)

Forecast from 22 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Werder Bremen

1.FC Köln

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

43 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

56 AttackIn forecast 36

45 DefenceIn forecast 36

71 Form indexContext 26

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Werder Bremen

Attack—

Defense risk—

1.FC Köln

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Werder Bremen

1.FC Köln

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.73

+0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

100% Scored inContext 83%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.00 ShotsContext 16.33

6.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33

49% On target shareContext 33%

9.67 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

66% Box shareContext 71%

14% ConversionContext 8%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.00

15.33 Shots allowedContext 15.67

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33

4.50 BlocksContext 3.83

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

61% Save rateContext 71%

47% PossessionIn forecast 48%

476 PassesContext 417

400 Accurate passesContext 344

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.00 FoulsContext 11.17

11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 11.33

1.17 Yellow cardsContext 1.83

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

80% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.70 ShotsContext 15.30

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

42% On target shareContext 35%

8.44 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

62% Box shareContext 73%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.44 OffsidesContext 1.17

15.70 Shots allowedContext 14.50

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

4.40 BlocksContext 3.80

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

66% Save rateContext 60%

46% PossessionIn forecast 47%

458 PassesContext 414

380 Accurate passesContext 343

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.69

10.30 FoulsContext 9.80

8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Werder Bremen WDWDD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km620 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 71 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

D17 OctH · SC Paderborn 072–21.7 xPts
D9 OctA · Borussia Dortmund2–20.5 xPts
W19 SepH · FC Augsburg3–21.2 xPts
D12 SepA · 1.FC Köln1–11.1 xPts
W5 SepH · RB Leipzig3–10.8 xPts

1.FC Köln LDLWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel270 km464 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected

L16 OctA · Eintracht Frankfurt0–11.0 xPts
W11 OctH · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.7 xPts
L19 SepA · Hamburger SV1–21.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Werder Bremen	1.FC Köln
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Jan	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	270 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	620 km	464 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Werder Bremen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs SC Paderborn 07 (H) 2–2, 17 Oct

1K. Hein(G)

2O. Deman 32M. Friedl 5A. Pieper 13Arthur

44Y. Regeer 15L. Reis

17M. Grüll 20Chuky 18E. Dinkçi

10N. Füllkrug

1.FC Köln Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A) 0–1, 16 Oct

1M. Schwäbe(G)

3B. Sosa 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 2Joel Schmied 28S. Sebulonsen

37L. Maina 5T. Krauß 8Í. Jóhannesson

10S. El Mala 30M. Bülter

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Werder Bremen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

1.FC Köln Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Werder Bremen · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 1.67

1.FC Köln · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Werder Bremen wins3 draws2 1.FC Köln wins

Goals per game1.14 – 2.00 Over 2.543% Both scored86% Clean sheets14% · 0%

12 Sep 20261.FC Köln1–1Werder Bremen
12 Apr 20261.FC Köln3–1Werder Bremen
29 Nov 2025Werder Bremen1–11.FC Köln
16 Feb 20241.FC Köln0–1Werder Bremen
23 Sep 2023Werder Bremen2–11.FC Köln
20 May 2023Werder Bremen1–11.FC Köln

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Werder Bremen	1.FC Köln
Scored per game	2.00	1.33
Conceded per game	2.00	1.83
Match goals	4.00	3.17
Over 1.5	100%	83%
Over 2.5	83%	67%
Over 3.5	83%	33%
Both teams scored	100%	83%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	17%
Games	6	6

	Werder Bremen	1.FC Köln
Scored per game	1.40	1.30
Conceded per game	1.90	2.30
Match goals	3.30	3.60
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	80%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	80%	90%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Werder Bremen	1.FC Köln	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	6.00
Corners conceded	5.83	6.33
Match total	9.50	12.33	10.72
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	83% 5/6
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	1.17	1.83
Opponent cards	1.33	1.67
Match total	2.50	3.50	3.51
Over 3.5	17% 1/6	67% 4/6
Over 4.5	0% 0/6	0% 0/6

	Werder Bremen	1.FC Köln	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	5.78
Corners conceded	6.40	5.44
Match total	10.30	11.22	10.72
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.80
Opponent cards	1.00	1.70
Match total	2.20	3.50	3.51
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.