Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig

Bundesliga Gameweek 20 Sat, Feb 6 · 14:30 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SV 9th · 9 pts · 6 played LLWWW

VS— Compare

RB Leipzig 7th · 9 pts · 6 played LWLWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel294 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 3

Real contextStrength only

Hamburger SV—%

Draw—%

RB Leipzig—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Hamburg)

Forecast from 22 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Hamburger SV 3 Wins in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row

Team strength

Hamburger SV

RB Leipzig

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

40 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

37 AttackIn forecast 76

43 DefenceIn forecast 53

70 Form indexContext 78

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hamburger SV

Attack—

Defense risk—

RB Leipzig

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Hamburger SV

RB Leipzig

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 2.13

1.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.54

50% Scored inContext 83%

17% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.00 ShotsContext 17.67

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

33% On target shareContext 37%

6.33 Shots in the boxContext 12.67

56% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.25

19.17 Shots allowedContext 17.00

5.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.83

5.33 BlocksContext 4.00

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.00

62% Save rateContext 77%

40% PossessionIn forecast 53%

346 PassesContext 508

270 Accurate passesContext 441

78% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.54 Team ratingContext 7.11

14.17 FoulsContext 9.83

12.83 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.92

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

70% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.60 ShotsContext 16.40

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

35% On target shareContext 36%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 11.60

59% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 13%

1.86 OffsidesContext 1.29

16.40 Shots allowedContext 14.20

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50

4.56 BlocksContext 3.00

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

64% Save rateContext 69%

40% PossessionIn forecast 54%

348 PassesContext 508

275 Accurate passesContext 443

79% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.97

12.40 FoulsContext 9.30

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hamburger SV LLWWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km828 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

W17 OctH · VfB Stuttgart1–01.0 xPts
W10 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–20.9 xPts
W19 SepH · 1.FC Köln2–11.5 xPts
L13 SepA · RB Leipzig0–50.6 xPts
L6 SepH · FSV Mainz 050–51.4 xPts

RB Leipzig WLWWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel294 km1,922 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Hamburger SV	RB Leipzig
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Jan	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	294 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	828 km	1,922 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hamburger SV Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs VfB Stuttgart (H) 1–0, 17 Oct

1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)

17W. Omari 33S. Bornauw 24N. Capaldo

37Louis Lemke 28M. Muheim 4B. Nadir 5M. Adeline 3D. Møller Wolfe

15Y. Poulsen 20Fábio Vieira

RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed

4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct

26M. Vandevoordt(G)

22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann

7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda

28C. Nkunku

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Hamburger SV Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

RB Leipzig Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Hamburger SV · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

RB Leipzig · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 3.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Hamburger SV wins0 draws3 RB Leipzig wins

Goals per game0.67 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

13 Sep 2026RB Leipzig5–0Hamburger SV
1 Mar 2026Hamburger SV1–2RB Leipzig
18 Oct 2025RB Leipzig2–1Hamburger SV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Hamburger SV	RB Leipzig
Scored per game	1.00	2.67
Conceded per game	2.50	1.83
Match goals	3.50	4.50
Over 1.5	83%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	83%
Over 3.5	50%	67%
Both teams scored	33%	33%
Clean sheets	17%	50%
Failed to score	50%	17%
Games	6	6

	Hamburger SV	RB Leipzig
Scored per game	1.30	2.10
Conceded per game	2.10	2.00
Match goals	3.40	4.10
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	80%
Over 3.5	40%	60%
Both teams scored	60%	50%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Hamburger SV	RB Leipzig	League
Corners
Corners won	3.83	5.50
Corners conceded	6.00	6.83
Match total	9.83	12.33	10.72
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	100% 6/6
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	1.33	1.00
Opponent cards	2.17	1.50
Match total	3.50	2.50	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	33% 2/6
Over 4.5	0% 0/6	17% 1/6

	Hamburger SV	RB Leipzig	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	4.80
Corners conceded	6.40	5.70
Match total	10.00	10.50	10.72
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.30
Opponent cards	2.60	1.30
Match total	4.10	2.60	3.51
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.