Bundesliga Gameweek 20 Sat, Feb 6 · 14:30 Stuttgart Arena, Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart 13th · 6 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
1899 Hoffenheim 14th · 6 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel57 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
VfB Stuttgart—%
Draw—%
1899 Hoffenheim—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Stuttgart)

Forecast from 22 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

VfB Stuttgart1899 Hoffenheim
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 49
70 AttackIn forecast 46
58 DefenceIn forecast 43
46 Form indexContext 15
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—
Defense risk—

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfB Stuttgart1899 Hoffenheim
1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83
1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33
1.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
2.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40
-0.58 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
67% Scored inContext 100%
17% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.00 ShotsContext 17.83
5.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
34% On target shareContext 30%
12.17 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
72% Box shareContext 61%
8% ConversionContext 10%
1.60 OffsidesContext 2.20
18.17 Shots allowedContext 13.50
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
5.00 BlocksContext 4.33
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33
63% Save rateContext 52%
55% PossessionIn forecast 57%
506 PassesContext 499
422 Accurate passesContext 405
83% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.02 Team ratingContext 6.83
9.83 FoulsContext 13.33
11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52
-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.16
80% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
16.80 ShotsContext 16.60
6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70
37% On target shareContext 28%
11.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
70% Box shareContext 62%
11% ConversionContext 8%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.14
15.50 Shots allowedContext 12.90
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
5.22 BlocksContext 4.10
3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10
65% Save rateContext 50%
55% PossessionIn forecast 59%
502 PassesContext 515
422 Accurate passesContext 426
84% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.07 Team ratingContext 6.72
11.10 FoulsContext 14.00
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfB Stuttgart
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,367 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Hamburger SV0–11.8 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Slovan Bratislava3–02.1 xPts
  • W10 OctA · SC Paderborn 072–01.6 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Borussia Dortmund0–11.2 xPts
  • L12 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.4 xPts
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel57 km541 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
  • L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
VfB Stuttgart 1899 Hoffenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Jan7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,367 km541 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 71 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfB Stuttgart Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Hamburger SV (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
41D. Seimen(G)
3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling 26D. Undav 11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović
1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal
22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
VfB Stuttgart Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
1899 Hoffenheim Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

VfB Stuttgart · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
1899 Hoffenheim · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.67
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentVfB Stuttgart1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV L 0–1 A L 2–3 H
SC Paderborn 07 W 2–0 A L 1–3 A
Borussia Dortmund L 0–1 H L 2–3 H
1.FC Köln W 4–1 H L 2–3 A
Points6 of 12 · 1.50 per game0 of 12 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

1 VfB Stuttgart wins6 draws3 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50 Over 2.560% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 10%
  • 12 Sep 20261899 Hoffenheim2–1VfB Stuttgart
  • 2 May 20261899 Hoffenheim3–3VfB Stuttgart
  • 20 Dec 2025VfB Stuttgart0–01899 Hoffenheim
  • 23 Feb 20251899 Hoffenheim1–1VfB Stuttgart
  • 6 Oct 2024VfB Stuttgart1–11899 Hoffenheim
  • 16 Mar 20241899 Hoffenheim0–3VfB Stuttgart

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

VfB Stuttgart1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 1.331.83
Conceded per game 1.672.33
Match goals 3.004.17
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 33%67%
Both teams scored 50%100%
Clean sheets 17%0%
Failed to score 33%0%
Games66
VfB Stuttgart1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 1.901.40
Conceded per game 1.402.30
Match goals 3.303.70
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 70%80%
Over 3.5 50%60%
Both teams scored 60%70%
Clean sheets 20%10%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

VfB Stuttgart1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won6.676.67
Corners conceded6.004.67
Match total12.6711.3410.72
Over 8.583% 5/6100% 6/6
Over 9.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 10.583% 5/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards1.002.17
Opponent cards2.330.67
Match total3.332.843.51
Over 3.550% 3/633% 2/6
Over 4.517% 1/617% 1/6
VfB Stuttgart1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won6.307.10
Corners conceded5.404.20
Match total11.7011.3010.72
Over 8.590% 9/10100% 10/10
Over 9.570% 7/1090% 9/10
Over 10.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.402.70
Opponent cards2.101.40
Match total3.504.103.51
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

VfB Stuttgart6 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 4 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim6 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 3 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 5 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 5 61-75
1 8 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München SV Elversberg Feb 614:30 Werder Bremen 1.FC Köln Feb 614:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach SC Freiburg Feb 614:30 Bayer Leverkusen FC Augsburg Feb 614:30 Eintracht Frankfurt FSV Mainz 05 Feb 614:30 VfB Stuttgart 1899 Hoffenheim Feb 614:30 FC Schalke 04 Union Berlin Feb 614:30 Hamburger SV RB Leipzig Feb 614:30 SC Paderborn 07 Borussia Dortmund Feb 614:30