Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga Gameweek 20 Sat, Feb 6 · 14:30 Frankfurt Arena, Frankfurt am Main

Eintracht Frankfurt 11th · 8 pts · 6 played LWDLW

VS— Compare

FSV Mainz 05 5th · 10 pts · 6 played WLWLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel32 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Eintracht Frankfurt—%

Draw—%

FSV Mainz 05—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Frankfurt am Main)

Forecast from 22 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak FSV Mainz 05 5 Scoring in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Eintracht Frankfurt

FSV Mainz 05

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 55

54 AttackIn forecast 68

37 DefenceIn forecast 56

52 Form indexContext 70

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack—

Defense risk—

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Eintracht Frankfurt

FSV Mainz 05

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.33

2.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 2.14

2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

83% Scored inContext 83%

17% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.67 ShotsContext 17.83

5.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

40% On target shareContext 34%

11.50 Shots in the boxContext 13.33

78% Box shareContext 76%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.40

17.50 Shots allowedContext 12.50

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

5.00 BlocksContext 4.17

4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

67% Save rateContext 57%

51% PossessionIn forecast 51%

436 PassesContext 446

353 Accurate passesContext 357

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.33 FoulsContext 13.83

13.17 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 2.21

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

90% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.10 ShotsContext 17.10

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

41% On target shareContext 36%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 12.80

68% Box shareContext 75%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.22

15.70 Shots allowedContext 12.50

6.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

4.44 BlocksContext 3.30

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

66% Save rateContext 58%

53% PossessionIn forecast 48%

449 PassesContext 420

370 Accurate passesContext 337

82% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.80 FoulsContext 12.80

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Eintracht Frankfurt LWDLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km504 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 52 · 7 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W16 OctH · 1.FC Köln1–01.8 xPts
L10 OctA · RB Leipzig0–60.8 xPts
D19 SepH · SC Freiburg2–21.3 xPts
W12 SepA · FSV Mainz 053–10.9 xPts
L6 SepH · FC Augsburg1–41.5 xPts

FSV Mainz 05 WLWLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel32 km392 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Eintracht Frankfurt	FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Jan	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	32 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	504 km	392 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Eintracht Frankfurt Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs 1.FC Köln (H) 1–0, 16 Oct

1N. Atubolu(G)

26K. Kosugi 3L. Brassier 4R. Koch 34P. Collins

8F. Chaïbi 27M. Götze 25R. Onyedika 20R. Doan

11Y. Ebnoutalib 9J. Burkardt

FSV Mainz 05 Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs FC Schalke 04 (A) 1–0, 17 Oct

1A. Schwolow(G)

48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa

2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci

9P. Tietz 23S. Becker

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Eintracht Frankfurt Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

FSV Mainz 05 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Eintracht Frankfurt · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.00

FSV Mainz 05 · Away 3.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 3.33
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

4 Eintracht Frankfurt wins4 draws2 FSV Mainz 05 wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.10 Over 2.550% Both scored70% Clean sheets30% · 0%

12 Sep 2026FSV Mainz 051–3Eintracht Frankfurt
22 Mar 2026FSV Mainz 052–1Eintracht Frankfurt
9 Nov 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–0FSV Mainz 05
4 May 2025FSV Mainz 051–1Eintracht Frankfurt
21 Dec 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–3FSV Mainz 05
26 Jan 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–0FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Eintracht Frankfurt	FSV Mainz 05
Scored per game	1.67	2.33
Conceded per game	2.67	1.67
Match goals	4.33	4.00
Over 1.5	83%	67%
Over 2.5	83%	67%
Over 3.5	83%	67%
Both teams scored	67%	50%
Clean sheets	17%	50%
Failed to score	17%	17%
Games	6	6

	Eintracht Frankfurt	FSV Mainz 05
Scored per game	1.60	2.20
Conceded per game	2.40	1.80
Match goals	4.00	4.00
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	70%
Over 3.5	70%	60%
Both teams scored	80%	60%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Eintracht Frankfurt	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	4.83
Corners conceded	4.00	4.00
Match total	9.33	8.83	10.72
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	2.33	2.33
Opponent cards	1.33	2.00
Match total	3.66	4.33	3.51
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	17% 1/6

	Eintracht Frankfurt	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	4.80
Corners conceded	4.80	4.90
Match total	10.40	9.70	10.72
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.90
Opponent cards	1.60	1.90
Match total	4.00	3.80	3.51
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.